Forex news for US trading on September 23, 2016

  • US major indices end the week on a sour note
  • The top 5 releases and events for next weeks trading
  • CFTC commitment of traders: GPB and AUD positions are reduced
  • Crude oil futures end the week down sharply
  • Apple falls on report of slow overseas sales
  • What to do when the USD/JPY range breaks - SocGen
  • The Iran-Saudi Arabia rift is at the core of the Algiers failure
  • Highlights from the Fed Q&A in Philadelphia
  • Baker Hughes US oil rig count 418 vs 416 prior
  • No deals in Algiers say the Saudi's
  • European stocks slip to finish a strong week
  • Kashkari: Fed forward guidance can backfire if it's wrong
  • New York Fed downgrades GDP Nowcast
  • Exporters will be buying yen next week - BTMU
  • ECB leaning towards QE tweak, no radical changes - RTRS
  • Why the Australian dollar has quietly been the best performer this week (and why it will continue)
  • ECB's Weidmann: Expect pickup in domestic demand towards year-end
  • Russia tells OPEC they'll talk once OPEC has got their own output house in order
  • Russia might leave Algiers before Sept 28 OPEC meeting
  • September 2016 US Markit manufacturing PMI flash 51.4 vs 51.9 exp
  • How are US stocks taking the Rosengren and Twitter news?
  • Russian finance minister Siluanov: Oil price at $40 is balanced
  • Dollar taking off after Rosengren insinuates that it's now or never for a hike
  • Twitter shares jump as CNBC reports expressions of interest
  • IMF: Greece needs far more debt relief than what's been considered
  • Fed's Rosengren: Overshoot of full employment may shorten the recovery
  • Canada July retail sales ex-autos -0.1% vs +0.5% expected
  • August 2016 Canadian CPI 1.1% vs 1.4% exp y/y
  • The strongest and weakest currencies as NA traders enter for the day

The US calendar was limited with the only release being the Markit US Manufacturing PMI. That index came in a bit weaker than expectations and had limited impact. Fed's Rosengren spoke up as well via a post on the Boston Fed's website. Rosengren was one of three FOMC members who voted to raise rates at the FOMC meeting this week. His comments were for s soft tightening but the market was in the mood to take the dollar higher - especially against some currencies like the GBP and the CAD, and NZD, that overall, the dollar was more supported in trading today.

With that said, the dollar did get some help from an overall weakness in currencies like the CAD, the GBP and the NZD. Each of those currencies were down on the day vs. the USD at least.

For the CAD, the loonie was pressured from surprisingly weak retail sales and CPI inflation numbers. Both came in weaker than expectations, and with nothing on the US calendar worth trading on, it led to CAD weakness. Later reports that the Saudi's were not in the mood to make a deal on output at next weeks OPEC meeting sent crude oil tumbling that also kept the CAD weak. The price action took the pair back into the non trending range that contained the pair up until Wednesday's break lower. That range is between 1.3128 an 1.3247. The buyers are back in control.

For the GBPUSD, the pair was hit on the back of concerns about Brexit. The selling took the pair to new lows for the week and the month. (to 1.2914). That move took the price below a trend line on the daily chart at 1.2944. Although the pair ended lower on the day, it did recover back above the aforementioned 1.2944 level, but it was in the NY afternoon session on a Friday. Below 1.3000 is bearish.

What was the NZDUSD story? The hangover from the RBNZ decision on Thursday (local time) was still the story. The market was not prepared for the dovishness. When the price is more toward the highs, then the lows, it can have an adverse effect. That is what we are seeing. Technically, the price fell below a trend line connecting the May and July lows at 0.7264. That level will be eyed in trading next week.

Other stories? The USDJPY did nothing today. That has allowed the 100 hour MA to move closer to the price (it is at 101.197 while the week is closing at 100.95). On the downside this week, the low was just above the 100.00 level at 100.088. Those levels define resistance above and support below until one or the other is broken.

And the EURUSD? Well.. there were support buyers against the 100 day MA at 1.1191. The low for the week equaled the last swing low from the end of August. Does that signal buyers? Well trading today was higher and the 100 day MA held support at the lows, BUT, it had a bunch of ups and downs to suggest traders were not all that bullish after all. The pair still lacks a commitment for buyers or sellers.

Have a great weekend. Thank you for all your support.