Two interesting takes on inflation
The ECB published a paper today on inflation and it shows that officials still aren't confident of a sustained pickup.
"The recent upturn needs to be viewed with some caution," it says. They warn about volatility and says more statistics are needed to determine if it will last.
One thing very few people are talking about in relation to central banks is the renewed fall in oil prices. Crude is down 18% in July. Although central bankers focus on core inflation, it has important spillovers to real prices and inflation expectations.
An interest point on the Bank of Japan comes from Marc Chandler, who notes that the BOJ published several alternative measures of inflation this month's economic report.
"The key take away is that many of the alternative measures point to a better price profile that the BOJ's preferred measure. It may lie behind BOJ Governor Kuroda's claim that CPI will accelerate 'at a rapid pace' later this year," he writes.
The BOJ could re-jig CPI, rather than introducing yet another round of QE.
