Goldman Sachs updated review for gold: it could fall to 1,050

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.02 16:47

Weekly Fundamentals by Morgan Stanley: USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CAD (based on efxnews article)

USD: Bullish
"We expect USD strength to be focused against EM and commodity currencies."

EUR: Bearish
"Many investors have hedged equity positions in Europe with short EUR. This suggests that in an environment where commodity currencies and EM may sell off, risk generally could take a hit, adding some support to EUR in the near term. Over the medium to longer term, however, we retain our bearish view on EUR."

JPY: Neutral
"We believe the BoJ is likely to refrain from further easing barring an unforeseeable shock to inflation, which should offer support to JPY. The central bank is likely focused on its new core CPI measure which does not include energy, and has grown steadily over recent months."

GBP: Bullish
"GBP performance will unfold in three phases going forward. First, broad-based GBP strength heading into the August 6 MPC meeting, where we expect the first vote for a rate hike. Second, a more selective approach after the August meeting. Finally, given the longer-term headwinds to UK growth from fiscal tightening and political uncertainty, the currency may lose steam after the first hike."

CAD: Bearish
"We like buying USDCAD on this dip, believing that as oil price uncertainty continues to mount, USDCAD will continue to head higher, testing the levels reached at the end of last week. On top of this, the second round impact of the lower oil price on the economy is likely to continue to be seen, possibly in upcoming employment data."

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2015.08.03 11:19

Skandinaviska Enskilda Banken: Outlooks For EUR/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, SP500 (based on efxnews article)

EURUSD: rejection from the 55-day MA
'The up and down move on Friday became the third consecutive rejection from the 55d ma band (since the return below it a month ago). The behavior is showing that bearish forces are at play and increasingly so given the return to a negative slope. We are thus looking for additional selling.'

USDJPY: new attempt to be above the key level
'Given the violation of the B-wave high (and a three wave setback from Thursday’s peak) there’s a high probability of a soon more successful break higher (targeting a new trend high). For today we see 124.37 as the trigger point for the next step higher.'

AUDUSD: Signs for sellers
'The spinning candle (small net move and big spikes to both sides) and the spring bottom are both signs of exhaustive sellers. There’s clearly a potential for the pair to bounce back to retest the 2001 trend line (or even back up to the 0.75- area) during the coming week.'

S&P 500: Higher again
'As long as the recent correction low remains unbroken a positive view should be kept in place (the July candle also developed into a mildly bullish piercing pattern). The entire structure since May can also be seen as an inverted head and shoulders formation, here seen as an upside continuation pattern.'