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 | Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Economists Think Inflation Will Rise Sharply in 2018: They're Wrong |
| Let's investigate six reasons economists think inflation is about to pick in 2018 and why I think they are dreaming.Reason Number One - Wage Hikes
Minimum wages rise in 18 states starting in 2018.
Former Fed Vice-Chairman Stanley Fischer told Bloomberg TV on October 4, “I still believe we will have higher inflation. The basic mechanism here is unemployment is declining all the time, wages will start going up at some stage.”
Wage Hike Rebuttal
The National Bureau of Economic Research paper: MiThursday, January 4, 2018 |
|
 | Chris Powell - GATA |
| GATA meets the $10,000 challenge but there are still reason and time to help |
| Late this afternoon credit-card contributions to GATA's year-end fundraising campaign exceeded the $10,000 matching gift offered by Stefan Gleason of Money Metals Exchange, and checks began arriving in the U.S. mail.
Thanks so much to the 126 donors by credit card. Most of them provided their e-mail addresses or their e-mail addresses were already in GATA's address book, so they have received individual acknowledgments of our appreciation. Those who have sent checks will get acknowledgments soonSaturday, December 30, 2017 |
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| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| The Whiskey Rebellion: How Brand New America Tore Up The Bill of Rights |
| Via The Daily Bell
223 years ago today, “The Dreadful Night” occurred in Western Pennsylvania, after an uprising called The Whiskey Rebellion.
The United States was brand new. Soldiers who had fought for independence from Great Britain found themselves on opposite sides of a skirmish. Some were having their rights violated practically before the ink was dry on the Bill of Rights. Other Veterans of the Revolution were doing the oppressing at Alexander Hamilton’s behest.
The Whiskey Rebellion saw Tuesday, November 14, 2017 |
|
 | George F. Smith - Barbarous Relic |
Mises stands between us and 1984  |
| On this day in 1949 Yale University Press published Ludwig von Mises’s economic treatise, Human Action. Later in 1949 another book appeared, George Orwell’s 1984.
Almost everyone has at least heard of Orwell and 1984. The same is unfortunately not true of Mises and Human Action.
Both books are attached to their authors as if they were extended surnames. Orwell is 1984, Mises is Human Action.
Among the many who’ve read it, 1984 is regarded as a premonition of what could happen if thFriday, September 15, 2017 |
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 | Nathan Lewis - New World Economics |
| A 15 Corporate Tax Would Have A Lot Of Upside Without Much Risk |
| (This item originally appeared at Forbes.com on September 7, 2017.)
https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2017/09/07/a-15-corporate-tax-would-have-a-lot-of-upside-without-much-risk
I recently argued that a country is far better off with a simple tax system and a low rate, like Hong Kong with its 16.5% corporate tax, than an obscenely complex system with a high rate, such as the U.S. with a 40% corporate tax (including the average of state taxes). Not only does the economy perform better, butSunday, September 10, 2017 |
|
| Nathan Lewis - New World Economics |
| Why We Should Cut The Corporate Tax To 15 Now |
| (This item originally appeared at Forbes.com on August 8, 2017.)
http://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2017/08/08/why-we-should-cu…te-tax-to-15-now/
The U.S. government hasn’t really done very much about its tax code since 1987. Mostly it has been like the Battle of the Somme, trench warfare accomplishing nothing, with the top income tax rate wiggling between 35% and 39.6%. During this time, dozens of governments that were actually communist in 1987 not only embraced capitalism, but actually Thursday, August 10, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Business Inventories Sink (And Why Shouldn’t They) Yellen Still Clueless |
| Business inventories fell 0.2% a bit more than the Econoday consensus estimate of a 0.1 percent decline.
The news on the second quarter continues to darken as business inventories fell 0.2 percent in April which is 1 tenth below Econoday’s consensus. Inventories at retailers also fell 0.2 percent with wholesale inventories down a very sharp 0.5 percent. Factory inventories were positive but only barely, at 0.1 percent. Declining inventories are a possible signal of business caution and a certainWednesday, June 14, 2017 |
|
| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Wholesale Trade Report Worse Than Expected: 2nd Quarter Recovery Thesis Nearly Dead |
| The second-quarter recovery fantasy took another smack in the face today with wholesale trade data.
Sales fell 0.4% and inventories fell 0.5%. In addition, the Census Department revised March inventories from 0.2% to 0.1%.
The Econoday consensus estimate was for inventories to decline 0.3%.
In yet another negative for second-quarter GDP, wholesale inventories fell a sharper-than-expected 0.5 percent in April. The draw is centered in autos but also includes other durable goods and nondurable gooFriday, June 9, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| GDPNow Silliness |
| Both GDPNow and the FRBNY Nowcast models will have updates on Friday. Meanwhile, it’s hard not to comment on recent forecasts from GDPNow on second quarter DGP.
As of Thursday, the GDPNow model sits at 4.0%. My typical gambit is sufficient: “I’ll take the under, way under.”
GDPNow Forecast June 1, 2017
The GDPNow model forecast for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the second quarter of 2017 is 4.0 percent on June 1, up from 3.8 percent on May 30. The forecasts for second-quaMonday, June 5, 2017 |
|
| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Lunch Traffic Lowest in Four Decades: Out for Lunch a Dying Tradition Demise of the “Gourmet” Burger |
| A pair of articles on the Wall Street Journal ponders an event I long expected would happen: willingness to eat at fast food places whose is steeply priced and of dubious quality.
Please consider Going Out for Lunch Is a Dying Tradition.
Americans made 433 million fewer trips to restaurants at lunchtime last year, resulting in roughly $3.2 billion in lost business for restaurants, according to market-research firm NPD Group Inc. It was the lowest level of lunch traffic in at least four decades.Thursday, June 1, 2017 |
|
| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Huge Artificial Increase in Credit Scores: Economic Ripple Effect |
| More than six million U.S. adults will have personal bankruptcies disappear over the next five years as bankruptcy data and defaults roll off credit scores.
As a result, credit scores have surged.
Fair Isaac Corp, the inventor of credit scoring algorithms, reports Credit Scores Hit Record High.
Credit scores for U.S. consumers reached a record high this spring while the share of Americans deemed to be some of the riskiest borrowers hit a record low—a potential boon for lending and economic actTuesday, May 30, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Dueling GDP Estimates: GDPNow vs. FRBNY Nowcast |
| Both the Atlanta Fed GDPNow and the New York Fed Nowcast updated their models today. Let’s take a look at where they stand for second-quarter GDP.
GDPNow Latest forecast: 3.7 percent — May 26, 2017
GDPNow 2nd Quarter Evolution
Nowcast Latest forecast: 2.2 percent — May 26, 2017
Nowcast Highlights
The New York Fed Staff Nowcast stands at 2.2% for 2017:Q2.
News from this week’s data releases reduced the nowcast for 2017:Q2 by 0.1 percentage point as the positive impact from wholesale inventoriSaturday, May 27, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Fed Eyes Second Quarter Recovery, Expects Trump Fiscal Policy Will Expand Economy |
| Data supporting the second quarter recovery thesis is nonexistent. Four out of four of the recent hard data economic reports have been negative.
Soft data diffusion indexes do not look so hot either.
Earlier today the Census Bureau reported the trade deficit widened. The same report shows retail and wholesale inventories declined by 0.3% each.
Advance Wholesale Inventories
Wholesale inventories for April, adjusted for seasonal variations but not for price changes, were estimated at an end-of-mThursday, May 25, 2017 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| California Banker: Views from the Business Banker’s Chair |
| On occasion, I get emails from a commercial banker friend who lives in California. Today he provides anecdotes from a business banker’s perspective.chair
Hey Mish
It’s been a while since my last email. Here are some views from this business banker’s chair.
I had lunch with a financial planner today, and he said the new tax plan coming from DC would eliminate tax-deductibility of state taxes. While Federal tax rates might go down a little, the net impact would be higher total taxes via higher toSaturday, May 13, 2017 |
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| USA GOLD - USA Gold |
| The Daily Market Report: Gold Consolidates Within Yesterday’s Range, Silver Falls Further |
| USAGOLD/Peter Grant/04-27-17
Gold is consolidating within yesterday’s range amid conflicting fundamentals. Silver on the other hand remains defensive, slipping to a 6-week low and driving the gold/silver ratio to a 5-month high near 73.
Heightened risk appetite in the wake of the French election and the roll-out of the Trump administration’s tax plan is being tempered somewhat by geopolitical tensions, as well as concerns surrounding the specifics of the tax proposal.
Senators received “a long aThursday, April 27, 2017 |
|
 | Gordon Long - Market Analytics |
 Yet Another Wall Street 'Witch's Brew' |
| WITCH'S BREW: Sentiment UP, Complacency UP - but Uncertainty Also UP (Not
DOWN?)
When did the distortion start occurring in the markets when increasing UNCERTAINTY
can come with an increase in COMPLACENCY and SENTIMENT?
The short answer is: When Wall Street and its media maven lap dogs began controlling
the public narrative. I place our newly minted Twitter King, "the Donald" at
the intersection of both!
For the sake of full disclosure I need to say I did not vote for the "Donald"!
ThTuesday, February 14, 2017 |
|
 | Michael Pento - Delta Global Advisors |
| Trumponomics Won't Trump the Bond Bust |
| Despite the millions of dollars Wall Street plowed into the Clinton campaign
in vain, the financial industry has nevertheless now become downright giddy
with the prospects of a Donald Trump presidency. The imperative question investors
need to determine is will the Trump presidency be able to generate viable growth.
And, if he cannot produce robust and sustainable growth imminently, are the
markets now priced for perfection that simply may never arrive?
Let's look at the President ElecThursday, January 5, 2017 |
|
| Chris Powell - GATA |
| Turk and Embry interviewed by King World News |
| King World News today interviews GoldMoney founder James Turk, who disputes the U.S. stock market's predictive power for the presidential election --
http://kingworldnews.com/as-the-world-awaits-the-u-s-election-outcome-bu...
-- and Sprott Asset Management's John Embry, who laughs at the buoyant official employment numbers in the United States as federal tax withholdings are declining:
http://kingworldnews.com/the-greatest-wealth-transfer-in-history-nears-a...Wednesday, November 9, 2016 |
|
 | Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital |
| Big Policies, Bigger Failures |
| Economics is far simpler than most in academics or government would have you believe. To make accurate predictions all you really need is an honest appreciation of the self-interest that is at the heart of free market transactions and an ability to understand how regulations that attempt to “correct” these realities don’t work. This is certainly the case with the completely predictable slow-motion train wrecks that are the signature U.S. domestic policy experiments of the last eight years: ObamaFriday, August 19, 2016 |
|
| Nathan Lewis - New World Economics |
| A Flat Tax and a Fair Tax -- Together |
| For a number of years, conservatives have debated the merits of the
“flat tax,” and also the “fair tax,” or what amounts to a unified sales
tax. Both plans are impractical as standalone solutions.
Instead, I propose that the flat tax fans focus on where income taxes
are most important – the Federal government – while fair tax fans focus
on where sales taxes are most important – state governments. The
combination of a unified flat income tax at the Federal level, and a
unified sales tax at the sSaturday, June 11, 2016 |
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