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 | Antal E. Fekete - Gold University |
The Federal Reserve As An Engine Of Deflation (sic!)  |
| Although the Fed’s open market purchases of securities (always net) affect only the short end of the yield curve directly, through the transmission of risk-free bond speculation they will affect the rest of the yield curve indirectly. Thus the entire spectrum of interest rates will keep falling in consequence of the Fed’s open market purchases of Treasury bills (or equivalent). This is a powerful if unrecognized force in the economy causing a chain-reaction as follows:Friday, July 31, 2020 |
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 | Axel Merk - Merk Fund |
| Flattening Yield Curve is Good |
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In recent months, pundits have cautioned about a flattening yield curve, suggesting it may signal the end of the economic expansion, the end of the bull market, possibly even the end of the world as we know it. There's plenty to worry about in the markets, but in the spirit that knowledge is the enemy of ignorance, let's clear up some myths.
FiFriday, May 18, 2018 |
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 | Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| Bonds, Inflation And Amigos |
| The Bonds segment of NFTRH 491 took a turn to tin foil territory to allow the letter writer to expose newer subscribers to his ideological views and thus, bias. #491 also got pretty talky on the precious metals as it did a thorough review of the sector’s status, with silver’s symmetry to 2016 a very key item. Hint: An ill-fated bounce like so many that have come after the 2016 top is not what we are looking for with the next rally, but it ain’t gonna be easy. You can check out this article for aMonday, March 19, 2018 |
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| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| 3 Amigos of the Macro, Updated |
| You thought I was done with the Amigos shtick, did you? Not by a long shot ma’am. They are the happy-go-lucky riders in play as the stock bull market churns on. They are the rising SPX/Gold ratio and stocks in general vs. gold (Amigo #1), rising US 10yr & 30yr yields (Amigo #2) and the flattening 10-2 yield curve (Amigo #3). On their current trends these goofy riders have signaled “a-okay!” to casino patrons playing the stock market and other risk ‘on’ items.Taking our macro indicators out of orFriday, March 9, 2018 |
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| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| Bonds and Related Market Indicators |
| For Notes From the Rabbit Hole bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many could not wait to buy bonds during US ZIRP global NIRP operations, but today they pay better interest and have a contrarian edge with the entire herd bracing for a bear market.We claimed appropriately bearish on bonds on December 4tMonday, February 26, 2018 |
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| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| Macro Update: 1 Week Later Risk Remains 'On' as 2 of 3 Amigos Ride On |
| Despite a tough week for stocks into Friday, February 9, three big picture macro indicators have continued to support a risk ‘on’ backdrop. Many of the shorter-term indicators we watch, like Junk bond ratios and the Palladium/Gold ratio say the same thing. Junk/Treasury and Junk/Investment Grade are threatening new highs and as we have noted in NFTRH updates all through the recent market volatility, Palladium (cyclical) got hammered vs. Gold (counter-cyclical), but only to test its major uptrendMonday, February 19, 2018 |
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 | Bob Hoye - Institutional Advisors |
Investment Fads  |
| We have been fascinated by the chart on the publically-traded shares of the Swiss National Bank. Yes, it is the central bank, it trades, it zooms and it is long the latest fad in investing. Fiduciary responsibility being a constriction has become a neglected concept.
Their reserves have been committed to equities and the chart records the euphoria of the day.
As one would expect the biggest positions include the fad stocks of today.
In the 1980s, we first wrote a piece on life insurance companMonday, February 12, 2018 |
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 | Michael Pento - Delta Global Advisors |
| Global Synchronized Bond Collapse |
| We have all heard, in ad nauseam fashion, Wall Street’s current favorite mantra touting a global synchronized economic recovery. For the record, global GDP growth for 2017 was 3.7%, according to the International Monetary Fund. And, although this is an improvement from recent years, you must take into account that in 2004 it was 4.4%, in 2005 it was 3.8%, in 2006 it was 4.3%, and in 2007 it was 4.2%. The Point being, it’s not as if the current rate of global growth has climbed to a level never bSunday, February 11, 2018 |
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| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| US Stock Market, Precious Metals and the Macro Backdrop |
| US Stock MarketWe will update global markets as well as the macro situation in NFTRH 486, but for this article I’d like to focus on the US stock market.Let’s cut to the chase; the markets have finally fallen in line for those of us who manage markets, as opposed to dollar cost average into them through a money manager and then go about life, blissfully unaware. Much like during the 2015-2016 period, when the media were all but demanding investors go one way when the right way was the opposite (fSunday, February 11, 2018 |
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| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| Amigo #2 (10yr Yield) Nears Target, ‘Inflation Trade’ Failing, Gold Sector Shaking Off Inflation Bugs |
| Over and over again I’ve been making goofy headlines about the Amigos, the 3 macro riders who will reach (or abort) their respective destinations, at which point the macro is subject to change. The latest update was yesterday with a daily chart view.Just look at them, the SPX vs. Gold Amigo, the 10yr & 30yr Yield Amigo and the Yield Curve Amigo. So happy-go-lucky while they ride. But #2, the one in the middle, looks like he’s bracing for something.So okay, I played swami and nailed the Payrolls Sunday, February 4, 2018 |
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 | Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco. |
| Unsound money is crucifying pensions |
| Deficits are mounting in pension obligations. It is a global problem over which pension trustees are helpless. It is also a problem that’s brushed under the carpet, with prospective and current pensioners generally unaware of the threat to their retirement. Investors in companies with defined benefit schemes, schemes which promise an inflation-adjusted entitlement based on final salary, generally ignore this important issue, as do most stock market analysts. Analysts know the deficits are there,Thursday, January 25, 2018 |
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| Michael Pento - Delta Global Advisors |
| Inflation Tsunami Ahead |
| Inflation is one of the most misunderstood, misused and lied about topics in economics. The Fed professes to know what causes it: an overly employed workforce. But, perhaps it is aware this is false and intentionally promulgates the ruse of growth as inflation’s progenitor because central banks want to deflect attention away from its money printing. Nevertheless, one thing is abundantly clear, we all have to agree that the Fed can’t readily control the exact rate of inflation; nor can it direct Tuesday, January 23, 2018 |
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 | Richard Mills - Ahead of the Herd |
| Bond Market Bear Creating Gold Bull |
| Gold is climbing as bond yields rise and the dollar falls, over speculation that China is pulling back on buying US Treasuries and Japan signals it is winding down its quantitative easing program. Meanwhile, US debt continues to grow after the Republicans under President Trump pushed a trillion dollars worth of tax cuts through the Senate, that the Congressional Budget Office thinks will add $1.7 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
The dollar, 10 year yields and golds price
Saturday, January 20, 2018 |
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| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| The Macro View: Amigos Ride On |
| As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets.Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well.Amigo 1: Stocks vs. GoldUsing the S&P 500 as an example, stFriday, January 19, 2018 |
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 | Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits |
| Upside Risk for Gold in 2018 |
| Black swans are very surprising and rare events. As they are beyond the realm of normal expectations, it is impossible to predict them. However, analysts do not care about such details and they outdo each other in forecasts. Our favorite is the list of ten outrageous predictions published by the Saxo Bank. The risk events include: the loss of Fed’s independence for the U.S. Treasury, the plunge in Bitcoin prices as government strike back, the abandonment of the yield curve control by the Bank ofFriday, January 19, 2018 |
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 | Jordan Roy Byrne - The Daily Gold |
| One Big, Potential Catalyst for Gold in 2018 |
| The rebound in the precious metals sector continues. Friday, Gold pushed to another new high, near $1340/oz. Gold stocks led by the HUI Gold Bugs Index and GDX also made a new high with juniors and Silver right behind. The greatest traders say the move comes first and then the reason later. When it comes to Gold we are always analyzing the reason behind the moves so we can distinguish between reactions and reflex moves and those moves that are part of a real bull market. The market may be startiMonday, January 15, 2018 |
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| Michael Pento - Delta Global Advisors |
| Interest Rates Walking On Narrow Ledge |
| There is a huge shock in store for those who have been lulled to sleep by a stock market that has become accustomed to no volatility and only an upward direction. And that alarm bell can be found in the price action of Bitcoin, which recently tumbled over 40% is less than a week. For the implosion within the cryptocurrency world foreshadows what will happen with the major averages as the Federal Reserve futilely attempts to stop monetizing the exploding mountain of U.S. debt.
Interest Rates WalkWednesday, January 10, 2018 |
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| Axel Merk - Merk Fund |
| Productivity: A Question of Focus, Health, Politics Money |
| Axel Merk, Merk Investments
January 10, 2018
Follow @AxelMerk Tweet
Last week, I asked, “What would make 2018 more productive for you? Please email me the first thing that comes to your mind.” Before I summarize the responses, a big thank you to the 800+ people who sent me personalized responses. Someone pointed out that asking the question itself already helped because it motivated her to review her plans and targeWednesday, January 10, 2018 |
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| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| Ever Been Part of a Melt-Up |
| This morning I noted that I did not appreciate seeing Jeremy Grantham’s note dismissed even in the slightest way and without rancor by a Biiwii author. His intro was “Here we go with the “melt-up” meme again.”, which I felt was not appropriate for our purposes, coming as it did from a writer who was cautionary all through 2017.Look, I was pretty sure I was going to be wrong about a Q4 market top long before Q4 ended. I was led to believe that through subsequent information and analysis, most notFriday, January 5, 2018 |
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| Alasdair Macleod - Finance and Eco. |
| How quickly will the dollar collapse |
| This might seem a frivolous question, while the dollar still retains its might, and is universally accepted in preference to other, less stable fiat currencies. However, it is becoming clear, at least to independent monetary observers, that in 2018 the dollar’s primacy will be challenged by the yuan as the pricing medium for energy and other key industrial commodities. After all, the dollar’s role as the legacy trade medium is no longer appropriate, given that China’s trade is now driving the glThursday, January 4, 2018 |
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