Today is a classic example of why I have been
warning traders not to push the long side of the stock market. When these
creeper trends finally break they often generate a crash or semi crash type
of profit-taking event.
The last 2 1/2 months were a classic example of why I have been warning
traders not to short the stock market. These creeper trends can go on much
longer than many people expect and shorts just end up getting whipsawed out
multiple times until they're so shell shocked that they can't hold on when
they finally do catch the top.
All in all the correct strategy was to remain in cash until the profit-taking
event occurred and then buy as close to the bottom as possible.
If I had to guess I would say this will probably turn into a two step down
affair followed by a two-month volatile consolidation as the dollar rally
You might recall in my last post I
mentioned that the dollar would need to get on the upside of an intermediate
cycle before stocks had any realistic chance of correcting. I outlined the
conditions that would confirm that the dollar had formed an intermediate
cycle low. Those conditions have now been met and it appears that the stock
market is ready to deliver the much anticipated profit-taking event.
During this period gold should drift generally
downward over the next couple of months as the dollar rallies.
There will be plenty of false rallies (just like last
Thursday) to sucker traders back in. But I really doubt gold will put in a
lasting bottom until the dollar's intermediate cycle tops. Barring a public
announcement of QE3, that is unlikely to happen until sentiment reaches
extremes again. That almost always requires a move to new highs and usually
takes a minimum of one and a half to two months to generate that kind of
As I have been warning traders for months the dollar's rally out of its three
year cycle low almost certainly isn't done yet. The rally out of a three year
cycle low usually lasts at least a year, and that's the norm in a secular
bear market. Since the three year cycle low bottomed in May of 2011 it's
unlikely that we would see a final top until at least May of this year. And
since the three year cycle low in 2011 held above the three year cycle low
that occurred in 2008, there is even a case to be made that the dollar has
now entered a secular bull market.
This would imply that despite Bernanke's best
efforts the forces of deflation may be overwhelming the central bank's
efforts to reflate. However I'm confident that if 10 trillion isn't enough
Bernanke will not hesitate to print 50 trillion. I have little doubt that no
matter how this progresses it is going to end in a massive inflationary