The gold price ended last week on a lacklustre note – buffeted by traders’ flight to equity markets amid further signs of improvement in the US economy and a cooling of economic tensions in Europe. Gold stood at $1,658 at Friday’s London PM Fix, down from around $1,700 last Monday. As can be seen from the 10-year Kitco gold price chart below, last week’s price decline in the metal took us below both gold’s 60-day moving price average (MA) and the 200-day MA. Gold hasn’t been this cheap relative to its 200-day MA since the 2008 panic.
Both the 60 and 200-day MA are around $1,675-$1,685 – this being something of a pivot point for the gold market in recent weeks. Gold bulls will face selling resistance at this point on the way up – and again at $1,700 – but their more immediate concern will be to stem the bleeding from last week.
On this score, events as far as the US dollar, Treasuries and commodities markets are concerned remain key (as ever). Though the Dollar Index held steady over the course of last week, there is a more or less continuous drip of dollar-bearish news emanating from Asia in relation to the buck’s role as a settlement currency in international trade. And while the Fed’s recent “no more money printing yet” comments encouraged gold selling, it has also encouraged selling of US Treasuries – The Wall Street Journal reporting that some analysts are even daring to ask: “Is the decades-long bull market for bonds finally over?”
Meanwhile, crude oil remains strong. Brent crude gained $3.22 on Friday to settle at $125.82 a barrel, while WTI gained $1.95 to settle at $107.06, with WSJ reporting market fears of a 2008-style oil price spike. Given the combination of Middle Eastern tensions and loose monetary policy on the part of all the world’s major central banks, it’s a question of when and not if as far as an oil price spike is concerned. And dramatic gains in oil will make it that much harder for short sellers to keep a lid on the gold price.
