New York closed Wednesday at $1,653.60 and slipped in Asia and London to $1,643.55 ahead of London’s Fixing. The euro was weaker from the start at €1: $1.3129 nearly a full cent weaker. Gold Fixed it at $1,642.50 down $10 and in the euro at €1,251.238 down €6.5, while the euro stood at €1: $1.3127. Ahead of New York’s opening it stood at $1,644.25 and in the euro €1,251.71 while the euro was at €1: $1.3136.

Silver was$30.65 at the close in New York but opened in London at $30.41. Ahead of New York’s opening it stood at $30.38.

Gold _{(very short-term)}

Gold’s trading range should continue to narrow, with a weaker bias, in New York.

Silver _{(very short-term)}

Silver’s trading range should continue to narrow, with a weaker bias, in New York.

Price Drivers

Each day we watch the gold price pressed down in Europe then lifted in New York after some gyrations both ways. This is why we have been highlighting the way the short-term factors have been clashing with long-term factors in a massive consolidation phase punctuated by short-term consolidation periods.

The two forces are now closing in on each other, taking gold and silver prices to the tip of a pennant formation that will take gold to a breakout, one way or the other in a very strong move. However, each day we may see price feints and give us small, dummy moves that mislead investors into thinking that it is happening.

The short-term factors are the Eurozone crisis events, regular jobs figures in the U.S. and the steady drip of information that we receive each day. The long-term factors are central bank and Asian demand.

But the clash between the two is not simply their weight of buying and selling but the difference between the short and long term buyer’s motives in doing so. Short-term traders are driven by profits either way. If they are to be made on the short side or the long side, so be it. That’s the way they will go. Hence, if long-term investor’s weight of long-term buying pushes traders out of their positions, traders will switch direction and go with them. The position now is that the last few weeks and months the weight of buying and selling has been coming into balance. But more is at stake then simply short-term profits, the establishment of direction for the next year and more, will be decided by the next big move. Will buying sag or will it rise? Whichever way it goes, the move could happen at any time! [To follow our weekly commentary, please subscribe to our newsletters at www.GoldForecaster.com and at www.SilverForecaster.com.]

Regards,

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters