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While Fitch’s was prudently downgrading 18 Spanish banks on
Tuesday, U.S. stocks were thundering higher, recouping about two-thirds of
Monday’s sharp losses. Wall Street’s irrational exuberance aside,
news sources around the world seem to be catching on
to the fact that rising share prices do not necessarily portend a solution to
Europe’s deepening financial crisis. Our favorite headline of the day
came from the London Globe and Daily Mail, atop a column
written by one Michael Barad: Uh oh, Italy
swears it doesn’t need a bailout. Nothing like a little
humor and a dab of cynicism to put things in proper perspective. Elsewhere
in the news, even the usually “Ray-rah, economy!” front page of
the Wall
Street Journal seemed to have noticed that swelling yields for
Spanish debt seem to call for an even bolder solution. Rates on the 10-year
were at 6.72% Tuesday, up a steep 6.52% from the day before. This is a euro-era
record for Spanish paper, and it makes clear that investors are not willing
to suspend their skepticism that a mere $125 billion loan can somehow tide
things over for more than a day or two, if that long.
 
In fact, this token sum has bought just a fleeting blip in share
prices around the world – a blip powered almost entirely by
short-covering bears, not by investors who actually believe Europe is getting
a grip on its problems. Granted, that doesn’t explain Tuesday’s
163-point rally in the Dow Industrials two days after-the-fact. But even if
the buying continues for another day or two, pushing the broad averages
marginally higher, we’ll be looking to get short every good chance we
get. Mainly, that will entail buying put options on the QQQs, a proxy for Nasdaq shares; or on SPY, an equity-based vehicle that
tracks the S&P 500. It’s always going to be tricky business jumping
in the way of rallies like this one, but our goal in any case will be to
minimize risk by using the Hidden Pivot Method to identify potentially
tradable swing highs. We’ll make no claims of success herein, but if
you want to learn more about our proprietary trading system from hundreds of
subscribers who use it, click here for a free seven-day trial to Rick’s Picks. It will give
you access not only to a 24/7 chat room that draws veteran stock and
commodity traders from around the world, but also to our detailed trading
recommendations, real-time updates and impromptu online webinars that seek to
ferret out choice trading opportunities during market hours.
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