America is like a fleet of oil tankers
or warships, adrift at sea with no rudders and no experienced fleet commander
giving orders. Rather, we have a community organizer, a neighborhood PTA-type
rabble rouser, sitting in the supreme commander’s chair with hands on
the controls (sometimes) crashing ahead without a clue. As we move inexorably
toward economic and foreign relations disasters, we have an inexperienced,
arrogant kid playing God while attempting to drive the mightiest nation in
history. Americans prefer to be led – not driven with threats. This is
not going to end well at all.
Numerous modern political observers
offer that President Ronald Reagan was one of the best presidents in the
history of the United States. Obviously, others would argue against that
statement but we think his success was attributed to simplicity of purpose.
He believed in the sanctity of the United States Constitution, Bill of Rights
and the Ten Commandments. We heartily agree. All the rest is just nonsense
and the work of busy bodies trying to re-arrange the lives of others to suit
their old, stale agendas and paradigms. President Reagan had very specific
goals for his presidency and he was successful in all of them including
getting the Russians to back down and repairing an economic mess that he
inherited from others.
Our current chief executive by
comparison has no concrete plans to deal with American joblessness. He is
promoting the erosion of our liberty and he takes no steps to promote free
enterprise. Having come from a background where the structural foundation is
one of government entitlements, he thinks this is the path for our future. We
saw a report some time ago saying Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society
cost the United States $44 billion over time. Look how well that has worked
out for us all.
Johnson’s $44 billion mistake is
now peanuts compared to Obama’s $5 trillion tragedies (and
counting). The way things are going now, Obama will probably waste more than
$44 billion on his bankrupt solar companies, General Motors and a handful of
insolvent banks (who claim they are making money on the tax payer’s
dime…) all before breakfast.
Many observers are too worried about the
Supreme Court’s Obamacare approval.
Initially, we were too. Now, however, we see the wisdom of Justice
Robert’s approval: he has attached a caveat and is calling it a TAX.
This will be a key discussion point in the forthcoming elections but beyond
that… America cannot afford it anyway, so who cares?
We expect some of the intermediate and
larger-sized corporations would eliminate all medical benefits under the new
plan; if it ever made it to first base, which we sincerely doubt. So, the end
result is Obamacare is defeated by the congress as
a bad tax or, alternatively, there is no money to pay for it as Great
Depression II deepens into economic darkness.
In his speeches before the 2008
election, Obama was truthful to the extent he told us he would spread it
around. As in, rob Peter (the working man and woman) to pay
Paul (the ne’er-do-wells/gimme-gimmes,
who sit upon a for-life structural welfare nest, promoting communism under
the guise of “social welfare fairness”). That idea sure worked
well in Europe, didn’t it?
In the Great Depression of the 1930s in
the United States, there was no welfare nest, no unemployment checks and no
food stamps. Either you found a way to feed yourself and your friends and
family or, you starved. There is no way to count the dead who had starved in
the 1930s, but it was reported that over 250,000 little defenseless American
children were tossed out of their homes by parents who could not feed them.
These kids went on the road in desperation and most of them were never heard
of again— ever.
We are not saying this sad event happens
again, but keep in mind there are thousands of underage kids living on the
streets as they departed dysfunctional homes for many reasons.
Along with his plans for a nanny-state
welfare paradise, Obama is using the presidential Executive Order as a
tool to circumvent the will of the people without congressional approval.
Obama has 38 czars and czarinas on his staff and they are seated with super
powers and never attained approval from any insiders or, for that matter,
These major government department heads
are running amuck, showering US citizens with a truck load of nanny-state
rules and illegal takings. We can clearly see a monstrous staff of
socialistic-communists bent upon imposing their personal rule and will upon
the American people…all this with no legal authority.
Being “politically correct” is
censorship, but just without burning books in the streets like the
Nazi’s did in that era. Our new capital controls, border controls and
mail censorship forces compliance where you have difficulty moving money for
normal commerce and in some cases, cannot use paper documents. For example,
if you are sending a gift overseas, the documents are filed on the internet or,
you cannot send the gift. This is just a warm-up. The real fun starts later
on, after Obama is re-elected by those needy welfare voters who receive all
the government checks he promises to deliver…forever.
This is the way it started in Germany in
the 1930s and of course after the Russian Revolution in that nation in 1917.
I think the nasty old Russian men like Stalin, Trotsky, Lenin and their
henchmen are rolling over in their graves laughing at America and what she is
doing today to create self-inflicted socio-economic wounds.
Some of those old dictators and
murderers predicted this would happen and they are proving to be correct.
This is happening despite their forecasts being decades old. They clearly
understood human nature. When a society floats on a sea of handouts, the mess
multiplies in the dark until it all dies and drowns.
Our economic and market forecasts signal
a “kick the can” situation not only in Europe but all over
the world until September 23-25, 2012, or in the alternative, after the voting
on November 6 in the United States.
China has experienced eight months in a
row of sliding, negative economic numbers. They can tinker with several
central planning tools, tweaking their problems until in the end their
created messes turn on them like a rabid dog. Mother Nature will not
be denied and not just in China either. Watch Europe first followed by other
poor, emerging nations; then the larger ones fall.
However, for now the game goes on; the
accurate numbers are hidden and we see regular name calling between Obama for
votes (I’m a tough guy vote for me) and China. These are just
school-yard bullies spouting meaningless crap.
Do you really think the Chinese, the
Germans or, that little unwashed creature
in Iran care really about what Obama thinks or, says? Hardly…
If you want to see some real excitement,
watch what happens when the German citizens vote against the ECB-ESM
Euro-land bailouts for their neighbors in a fall referendum. Now that is
going to be very interesting. One observer told us the vote is coming
quickly. We say the German Supreme Court stalls it until at least until after
Obama is re-elected in November, 2012.
While the German justices may think that
the 4th quarter may be a peaceful post–election period, we predict it
goes absolutely wild with a host of other problems including but not limited
to: (1) lawsuits for voter fraud, (2) impeachment proceedings, (3) other
criminal lawsuits against the administration, (4) white house scandals
involving women, (5) grand theft by staff and numerous other charges relating
to current and expanding investigations.
This is going to be better than an Academy-Award-Winning
Movie and we all get a ring-side seat. Great fun! Watch for stupendous
market moves giving us super-duper trading, and all the other neato scandals the liberal, lefty newspapers and TV media
so dearly love – wowser!
Now that Greece has cooled-off for the
next ten minutes, our attention has turned to Italy and Spain where those
prime ministers and economic leaders told the world first that: “We do
not need the money”, and next: “We might need the
money” and finally, “We need all your money as we can only cover
20% of our bad debts!”
Today, all of these turkeys are now
telling us there is not enough money in the world to solve their problems and
pay their bills. Gosh, what a big surprise!
Next we have the Queen of the IMF,
Madame LeGarde, tut-tuting
aloud saying, “You European boys just have to get your act together and
very soon.” Or what? Is she going to put out the European credit fires
with the IMF’s garden hose, a good chunk of which is US
taxpayer’s money? There is not enough credit and cash on the planet for
that one. Their game covers 850,000,000 people with the USA being only 1/3rd
of that size for comparison.
She got that job as she is very smart,
as in “street smart”. You do not become the Chairwoman of the
mammoth Baker & McKenzie law firm unless you are a powerful rainmaker
(sales lady bringing in the big deals and clients) while making all those monster
egos behave themselves.
Now, however, Madame LeGarde
is stuck with a problem even superman cannot fix. How can they pay a
gazillion dollars in worldly bills when they have so little left with which
to pay? And, all of this exists despite her ability to access/print currency
and bonds with wild impunity. She has met her match and all the yelling and
cajoling ain’t going to cut the mustard.
Europe goes crack-up-boom…they just happen to be first in line among
several larger nations throughout the world.
The USA is and will be the continuing
recipient of Euro-land’s troubles. America is receiving a mountain of
cash and bond transfers from suspect European paper, most of which is landing
in long bonds, T- Bills and money market funds. Today, it got even more interesting
as interest rates were lowered once more on money market funds in Europe,
which makes the funds virtually useless. A Big Boy Bank closed 15 of their
European funds on that news and returned the money. Next, we say that pile of
cash lands in USA paper as it’s the best of the worst (at least this
In summary, the 3rd quarter of 2012 will
be a set-up quarter for those traders and investors moving into positions
that can profit from all this forthcoming excitement arriving in the 4th
We strongly suggest that if you are not
experienced in managing big, faster moving messes, it would just be easier to
go and buy physical gold and silver and take possession. This way you
eliminate any counter party risk and if you need some cash later on, the metal
brokers are more than happy to buy it back and very quickly, too. This
trade is safe and liquid.
Most of our readers of these essays and
in our Trader Tracks Newsletter are primarily stock traders and
investors. At this juncture they are wondering and worrying as to when
markets will return to new rallies, pulling-up their beaten down stock
positions. The precious metals stocks (the best of the best) will begin to
react almost immediately when gold and silver begin new rallies. However,
most of them usually take 2-4 weeks longer in a precious metals reaction
before any substantial shares movement. This past week in Trader Tracks,
our list of recommendations week-over-week moved from negative to almost all
Follow monthly charts first and discover
the best time of year for your favorite markets. Then, work backwards using
weekly charts followed by dailies. For the most part, we have learned that
swing trading (a few days to a few weeks) is easier to manage for us.
However, some traders enjoy the scalping game doing 150 trades each day
finishing the session and then going flat overnight. Find what suits you best
and above all control risk first. The balance of your earnings will often
take care of themselves –Traderrog
Contact Claudio Bassi, at Trader Track’s New York City publishing
offices for a trial subscription. Call
718-457-1426 Monday through Friday, 9:30am to 5pm or,
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as such, are subject to change without notice. Roger Wiegand
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futures contracts may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose a
substantial amount of money in a very short period of time. The amount you
may lose is potentially unlimited and can exceed the amount you originally
deposit with your broker. This is because trading futures is highly
leveraged, with a relatively small amount of money used to establish a
position in assets having a much greater value. If you are uncomfortable with
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