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Breakout day for Commodities

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Published : November 06th, 2007
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Today was a breakout day for futures and commodities mostly in reaction to new record lows on the U.S. Dollar Index and a record high for crude oil. Credit crunchies at the global investment banks and those lenders heavily involved in real estate have reached crisis proportions. The day started with an overseas essay from a UK reporter that Citigroup was technically insolvent. This bank is holding, by far, the largest percentage of suspect derivative paper, which some analysts claim is over $1 Trillion dollars. The Northern Rock Bank in the U.K., it was reported today, has been supported by government backing to the tune of $30 Billion (U.S.) dollars. The United States Federal Reserve pumped in an emergency $41 Billion into the American system last Thursday with little fanfare. Their next official meeting is on December 11 to decide upon another rate cut. Bond traders have "baked another 25 basis points into their trading cake," but we think the FOMC will provide another 25 basis points cut before the December 11 meeting on an emergency basis. Of course no one is talking about anything but smoothness and control but we think the entire world-wide banking system is on the verge of a major event. This was hinted at today with major reactionary breakouts in precious metals, crude oil and the usual on-going geopolitical events in the Middle East.

December gold futures today flew to $824.50, +$13.70 in one trading day. December silver futures closed at $15.405, +$.62 for this day. Both precious metals have now jumped into higher trading ranges indicating a larger breakout rally has begun. Silver has been slow but has now caught up and surpassed hard resistance at $15.20-$15.30. Crude oil futures for December, 2007 closed at $96.87, +$2.89 for today. This new and higher crude trading range is $96.50 to $98.50. We at Trader Tracks have now adjusted our crude oil trading range higher three times in the last ten days. This is unheard of volatility. Once oil stays above and closes over $98.50, we move to our 4th newly adjusted forecast of $98.50 to $102.50. Analysts have stated oil closing over $106 should take it swiftly to $110.00 per barrel. Heating oil broke a new resistance today at 2.40, closing at 2.6134. Unleaded gasoline closed at 2.4369 breaking our forecast high of 2.40.

The "good" currencies like the Canadian Dollar, Euro, and Swiss Franc have all become safe haven flight destinations as traders run away from the U.S. Dollar. While our December Dollar closed today at 76.00, lower than it's last recorded low from 1967, the Canadian is 1.0843, the Euro at 1.4565 and the Swiss being .8757. We cannot tell technically where the C$ goes next until we do new work in that regard. The Euro is moving to 150.00 and the Swiss Franc to .9000.

Grains are rallying in a similar event as December Wheat Futures closed at $7.98 up $.134 and December Corn Futures were $3.862 +.11. Soybeans are proving to have the most rally power recently with the next most active futures trading month of January, 2008 closing at $10.45 per bushel, +.242.  We are fully expecting soybeans to be selling between $12.00 and $15.00 in 2008 near their all-time record high prices. China sold 200,000 tons of soy oil to depress the price and had to immediately buy it back as prices flew higher.

In summary, we forecast the U.S. Dollar to sell down further with possible near term support at 72.50; a full four points lower than today's close. This lower dollar price should drive gold and silver much higher with increased velocity with expectations for a peaks and profit-taking correction later this November or, by December 1, 2007. Our minimum gold forecast is for $850 with potential for $873 and then $930 before the correction. - Traderrog


By : Roger Wiegand

Roger Wiegand is Editor of Trader Tracks Newsletter and his soon to be opened Daily Tracker for active gold, silver and energy traders.  Roger provides recommendations for short and longer term trading using stocks, futures and commodities with specifics.

Contact Claudio Bassi, at Trader Track’s New York City publishing offices for a trial subscription.  Call 718-457-1426  Monday through Friday, 9:30am to 5pm or, e-mail

Recommendations made in “Trader Tracks” are exclusively those of Roger Wiegand and the publication is also exclusively the editorial content provided by Roger Wiegand. TAYLOR HARD MONEY ADVISORS, INC. (THMA) LOCATED AT 33-42 61ST STREET, WOODSIDE, N.Y. 11377, ASSISTS IN THE MARKETING OF “TRADER TRACKS.” However, the views expressed in Trader Tracks do not necessarily reflect those of THMA (Website: Because individual investment objectives vary, this summary of investments should not be construed as advice to meet the needs of any particular reader or subscriber. Opinions expressed in Trader Tracks are statements of judgment expressed at the date and time they were written, and as such, are subject to change without notice. Roger Wiegand is not a CFA nor an investment advisor, but a private individual who studies the markets extensively and offers summary opinions. Before any type of investment is made, you should always seek advice from your attorney, CPA, registered broker, or financial advisor. There is considerable risk in market speculation and investing. There are no guarantees regarding performance and past performance provides no guarantee of future performance. Your trading accounts are always subject to the potential for severe or total losses. This service will involve SPECIAL EMAIL ALERT TRADING RECOMMENDATIONS PROVIDED AT ANY TIME Roger Wiegand believes it is opportune to trade either in or out of the market in question. AS SUCH, THIS SERVICE WILL BE CONSIDERED A PREMIUM SERVICE. The management of THMA, Inc. does not anticipate trading in the securities recommended in Trader Tracks. No statement or expression of any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer to buy or sell the securities mentioned herein. Trading futures contracts may not be suitable for all investors. You may lose a substantial amount of money in a very short period of time. The amount you may lose is potentially unlimited and can exceed the amount you originally deposit with your broker. This is because trading futures is highly leveraged, with a relatively small amount of money used to establish a position in assets having a much greater value. If you are uncomfortable with this level of risk, you should not trade futures contracts. If you need a broker, contact mine, Ryan Olson, Managing Partner, Jackson-Olson commodities at 800-352-5228 or by e-mail Contact Jackson-Olson Commodities, LLC, 5510 Abrams Road, Suite# 101, Dallas, Texas 75214. Local Telephone is 214-691-8600. Fax is 214-691-8614. Jackson-Olson clears trades through R. J. O’Brien founded 1914. They provide clearing and execution services in virtually all markets around the globe. To subscribe to Trader Tracks stocks & bonds, futures & commodities, contact Claudio Bassi with e-mail CBASSI@MININGSTOCKS.COM


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Roger Wiegand is the Editor and co-partner of Trader Tracks. He alone is responsible for all writing, editing and content. Roger's publisher is Taylor Hard Money Advisors, Inc (THMA) in New York City. Roger Wiegand found and put together his first real estate-mining joint venture with his real estate developer employer in the early 1970's with a USA national, public gravel miner.
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