Today was a breakout day for futures and commodities mostly in reaction to new record lows on the U.S. Dollar Index and a record high for crude oil. Credit crunchies at the global investment banks and those lenders heavily involved in real estate have reached crisis proportions. The day started with an overseas essay from a UK reporter that Citigroup was technically insolvent. This bank is holding, by far, the largest percentage of suspect derivative paper, which some analysts claim is over $1 Trillion dollars. The Northern Rock Bank in the U.K., it was reported today, has been supported by government backing to the tune of $30 Billion (U.S.) dollars. The United States Federal Reserve pumped in an emergency $41 Billion into the American system last Thursday with little fanfare. Their next official meeting is on December 11 to decide upon another rate cut. Bond traders have "baked another 25 basis points into their trading cake," but we think the FOMC will provide another 25 basis points cut before the December 11 meeting on an emergency basis. Of course no one is talking about anything but smoothness and control but we think the entire world-wide banking system is on the verge of a major event. This was hinted at today with major reactionary breakouts in precious metals, crude oil and the usual on-going geopolitical events in the Middle East.

December gold futures today flew to $824.50, +$13.70 in one trading day. December silver futures closed at $15.405, +$.62 for this day. Both precious metals have now jumped into higher trading ranges indicating a larger breakout rally has begun. Silver has been slow but has now caught up and surpassed hard resistance at $15.20-$15.30. Crude oil futures for December, 2007 closed at $96.87, +$2.89 for today. This new and higher crude trading range is $96.50 to $98.50. We at Trader Tracks have now adjusted our crude oil trading range higher three times in the last ten days. This is unheard of volatility. Once oil stays above and closes over $98.50, we move to our 4th newly adjusted forecast of $98.50 to $102.50. Analysts have stated oil closing over $106 should take it swiftly to $110.00 per barrel. Heating oil broke a new resistance today at 2.40, closing at 2.6134. Unleaded gasoline closed at 2.4369 breaking our forecast high of 2.40.

The "good" currencies like the Canadian Dollar, Euro, and Swiss Franc have all become safe haven flight destinations as traders run away from the U.S. Dollar. While our December Dollar closed today at 76.00, lower than it's last recorded low from 1967, the Canadian is 1.0843, the Euro at 1.4565 and the Swiss being .8757. We cannot tell technically where the C$ goes next until we do new work in that regard. The Euro is moving to 150.00 and the Swiss Franc to .9000.

Grains are rallying in a similar event as December Wheat Futures closed at $7.98 up $.134 and December Corn Futures were $3.862 +.11. Soybeans are proving to have the most rally power recently with the next most active futures trading month of January, 2008 closing at $10.45 per bushel, +.242.  We are fully expecting soybeans to be selling between $12.00 and $15.00 in 2008 near their all-time record high prices. China sold 200,000 tons of soy oil to depress the price and had to immediately buy it back as prices flew higher.

In summary, we forecast the U.S. Dollar to sell down further with possible near term support at 72.50; a full four points lower than today's close. This lower dollar price should drive gold and silver much higher with increased velocity with expectations for a peaks and profit-taking correction later this November or, by December 1, 2007. Our minimum gold forecast is for $850 with potential for $873 and then $930 before the correction. - Traderrog

By : Roger Wiegand

www.Tradertracks.com

Roger Wiegand is Editor of Trader Tracks Newsletter and his soon to be opened Daily Tracker for active gold, silver and energy traders.  Roger provides recommendations for short and longer term trading using stocks, futures and commodities with specifics.

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