All reasoned investment and
trading decisions are premised upon some sort of Forecast, whether explicit
Thus it is essential when
making such Forecasts to have a view about what the biggest players in the
markets - - the U.S. Federal Reserve and the other Central Bankers’ - -
short, medium and long-term goals are.
If an investor or trader
acts in a manner at odds with the Market Outcomes which the Central Bankers
actively seek, that investor or trader is placing himself in considerable
financial peril. Thus Deepcaster’s Forecasts
and recommendations are made with attention to the Interventionals,
that is, to the presumed and inferred intentions of The Cartel of Central
Realized, One Yet to Be
One aspect of Deepcaster’s two-pronged Forecast made nearly five
months ago is already being realized and the other is yet to be. Specifically,
Deepcaster and a few select others noted then that
the economy is moving into a phase of apparent deflation.
In the past five months the
key hallmarks of this apparent deflation have indeed been, and are, a
slowing economy and the takedown in price (again) in precious metals, as Deepcaster forecast. Thus the takedown in prices of
precious metals has begun, but is not yet done.
The other component of that
Forecast - - the takedown in price of strategic assets in general and crude
oil in particular - - has not yet seriously begun. Indeed, crude oil has
moved somewhat higher in the last two weeks.
The Case that the takedown
of strategic assets in general (and particularly crude oil) is yet to come is
based on the evidence that much of the apparent deflation is likely
engineered by the Fed and other Central Bankers-led Cartel to achieve their
Regarding the apparent
deflation, we specifically refer to the official U.S. CPI and PPI numbers
which have been tepid at best. Of course, it is Deepcaster’s
view (following John Williams’ shadowstats.com) that real U.S.
inflation is much higher, indeed in the 10% range annually, and that the real
U.S. GDP is a negative number - - see Deepcaster’s
May, 2007 Letter.
In any event, it is in the
interest of The Central Banker Cartel to reduce the attractiveness of
Tangible Assets in order to boost the attractiveness of their Treasury
Securities and Fiat Currencies. It is apparent that this Cartel Interest is
advanced through Markets Intervention. [Those who question the breadth and
depth of Cartel intervention are invited to review Deepcaster’s
October, 2006 Letter, “Mega Manipulations - - Juiced Numbers IV: How
the Government Gets the Statistics It Wants, Markets Get Manipulated,
Citizens Get Deluded, and Worse” at www.deepcaster.com.
The War Against Tangible Assets
Indeed, maintaining the
legitimacy of their Treasury Securities and Fiat Currencies is so important
to the Central Bankers that they seem to continually to conduct an intense
campaign against their main “competitors:” the key tangible
assets - - the precious metals and strategic commodities.
This campaign is so intense
that it can justifiably be called a “War.” [And of course there
appears to be a private profit motive for doing so. The U.S. Federal Reserve
is neither a Federal nor a U.S.
entity. It is an amalgam of Private Bankers, some of which are not U.S. owned or
“competitors” are tangible assets, and gold and silver
specifically (because gold and silver are historically the only
“real” money - - all important fiat currency regimes have
historically failed eventually), and the strategic commodities including
especially crude oil.
From the Cartel’s
perspective this “War” requires periodic attacks on the prices of
precious metals and other strategic tangible assets so that these assets will
not come to be seen as alternate stores of, and measures of, value.
Deepcaster, and a select
few others, including preeminently the Gold AntiTrust Action Committee (www.gata.org) have collected
substantial evidence that (otherwise inexplicable) price drops are actually
price Takedowns engineered by the Central Banker-led Cartel. Otherwise (just
to consider two examples) how can one explain the periodic huge price drops
in silver prices, when its demand over supply deficit has been steadily
increasing for years?
On the gold front, how can
one explain the drops in Newmont Mining shares from
a high of $62 in February, 2006 to its present condition below $40? (See Deepcaster’s May 20th Alert)
Profiting as the
Golden Shoe Drops
with the aforementioned perspective on the Central Banker Cartel’s
probable goals - - to keep investors in paper Treasury Securities and Fiat
Currencies and to bolster their legitimacy and perceived value - - one need
mainly to get the timing right in order to invest or trade profitably.
But getting the timing
right is a challenge, even when one employs interventional as well as
fundamental and technical analyses.
and a very few others have employed all the aforementioned to generate
profitable trades. For example, Deepcaster High
Potential Speculators could have taken 60% profit on May 16th a
mere two weeks after putting on the trade. It was based on Deepcaster’s accurate Forecasts that the shares of
a major gold producer would be taken down.
However, on the crude oil
and strategic commodities front in general, a significant takedown of those
is yet to come. This comes as something of a surprise to Deepcaster,
but on reflection not a great surprise.
For the Central Bank Cartel
to take down the price of crude and other strategic commodities, at least two
conditions must be met. First, the geopolitical conditions must not
clearly dictate a higher price for crude oil and strategic commodities. Second
there must be a plausible explanation or pretext (from the Cartel’s
viewpoint) for such a takedown. Otherwise the appearance of Market
Manipulation would be even greater than it already is. And that transparency
would tend to defeat Cartel goals.
expects a takedown of crude oil and strategic materials when a plausible
explanation (from the Cartel’s viewpoint) is available. Such a
plausible explanation could be a peace agreement in the Middle
East or could be an agreement among oil producers to sell crude
oil at a fixed price, or a variety of other possible causes.
Simultaneously, we expect
another sharp takedown of Gold and Precious Metals prices in the near future.
Thus Deepcaster will be carefully monitoring the
fundamentals, technicals and especially the interventionals, for a signal the Golden Shoe is
about to drop, again. At that point Deepcaster
expects to have made recommendations which would lead to substantial profits
on the short side.
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