are some charts and commentary from the Realpoint Research
Monthly Delinquency Report for January
January 2010, the delinquent unpaid balance for CMBS increased by another
$4.3 billion, up to $45.94 billion from $41.64 billion a month prior. The
overall delinquent unpaid balance is up 326% from one-year ago (when only
$10.79 billion of delinquent unpaid balance was reported for January 2009),
and is now over 20 times the low point of $2.21 billion in March 2007. The
distressed 90+-day, Foreclosure and REO categories grew in aggregate for the
25th straight month – up by $7.42 billion (28%) from the previous month
and over $27.95 billion (508%) in the past year (up from only $5.51 billion
in January 2009). This included a substantial jump in 90+-day delinquency in
click on any chart for sharper image
CMBS Delinquency Amounts
CMBS Delinquency Percentages
All deals seasoned at least a year have a total unpaid balance of $789.07
billion, with $45.94 billion delinquent – a 5.82% rate (up from only
3.15% six months prior).
top three states ranked by delinquency exposure have remained consistent
since January 2009, as California, Florida, and Texas collectively accounted
for 30% of delinquency through January 2010.
10 largest states by delinquent unpaid balance reflect 57% of CMBS
delinquency, while the 10 largest states by overall CMBS exposure reflect 52%
of the CMBS universe.
state of California remains a major concern at near 13% of CMBS delinquency.
By MSA, however, such delinquency is concentrated in the Los Angeles,
Riverside-San Bernardino, and Orange County MSAs highlighted below.
by state delinquency exposure Florida ranks second, no Florida MSA is found
in the Top 10 MSA’s ranked by delinquency exposure (highest being
Miami, which ranked 14th in our data).
over 10% of total CMBS exposure in the states of Florida, Arizona, Nevada and
Michigan are delinquent, with the Phoenix, AZ and Las Vegas, NV MSAs
accounting for the top 2 by delinquency exposure at (14% and 14.5% of the
also appears to be deteriorating further in the Riverside-San Bernardino, CA
MSA, as over 11% of the total MSA exposure was reported delinquent through
delinquency is highly concentrated within the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston
one MSA topped 4% of CMBS delinquency in January 2010, consistent with the
10 largest MSAs by delinquent unpaid balance reflect 30% of CMBS delinquency,
while the 10 largest MSAs by overall CMBS exposure reflect 34% of the CMBS
estimates delinquencies will hit 8.6% by June 2010 and that "Balloon
default risk is growing rapidly from highly seasoned CMBS transactions as
loans are unable to payoff as scheduled." There is much more in the 15
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