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There are many different investment
vehicles one can use to invest in gold. The key aspects that we as investors
and traders look for are the vehicles relationship and correlation with gold
prices, and how much that correlation is or isn’t leveraged to the gold
price. More leverage is not
always the objective of an investor, one may be
looking for less sensitivity to the gold price, or simply to match
gold’s performance.
If one is looking simply to match gold’s price
performance then this is easily achieved by purchasing the physical metal or a gold ETF like GLD. If one is looking for less sensitivity
to gold prices, this again is relatively easy to achieve, by simply buying
less gold and holding more in cash, for example instead of investing $1000 in
GLD, investing $500 and leaving $500 as cash in your account will give the
investor half the overall performance of gold. However it is when we are aiming to
increase our leverage to gold prices that things get interesting.
A simple solution is by using margin. Borrow money and buy twice as much GLD
and you will get approximately twice the return than you would’ve
without buying on margin. However
not all investors are comfortable with margin and with gold being a volatile
market one could be caught out and face margin calls, but overall this
appears to be a relatively simple and effective strategy.
One of the most popular methods for those looking to
invest in gold with additional leverage is gold stocks, however we do not
think this is the best way to invest in gold. Please do not take this to mean
there aren’t gold stocks that are well worth investing in, there are
some fantastic opportunities and a lot of money to be made in gold stocks,
from the heavyweight miners to the junior resource start ups.
However gold stocks do not score highly in one of
the main aspects we look for: correlation to gold prices. Granted in general as gold prices have
been rising gold stocks have been making great gains – but we feel
there are simply too many other external factors influencing gold stocks to
say that they are best choice for investors looking to play the gold market.
Mining stocks can be hit by increasing costs,
geo-political unrest in the region they are mining in, foreign exchange
fluctuations and changes in management to name but a few factors that have
little or nothing to do with the price of gold and yet affect the investment,
diluting gold stock’s correlation to the gold price. The junior resource companies are even
less correlated than the miners, with their stock prices moving more on
whether or not they find any gold, how much they find, where they find it,
what grade the resource is and whether the project will be feasible to mine
in many years to come, rather than the gold price today or in six months from
now.
When looking at the leverage of gold stocks relative
to gold prices, they do exert some leverage and regularly outperform the
yellow metal. However by how much
they outperform gold varies considerably, and it is hard to calculate how
much leverage a stock will give you due to the external factors detailed
above.
So in our quest for the best gold investment
vehicle, one that exerts direct undiluted correlated returns to the gold
price, with added leverage that is quantifiable to a reasonable accuracy, we
think that options are the best choice. Options contracts are directly linked
and correlated to gold, without the hassle of the external factors that often
hamper gold stocks. Options are
also not only a leveraged product, but one can tailor the leverage to suits
ones preference, so it is possible to achieve a high level of leverage or a
low level, whatever the investor desires, with the right combination of
contracts.
Although options can contain a high level of risk,
many investors are under the false impression that all options contain this
same high level of risk, when in fact they vary greatly in their level of
risk, with some having relatively low risk, and some having higher risk. This means
the investor can choose how much risk they wish to take on, and in some cases
owning options results in less risk than risk than owning gold stocks. At SK Options Trading our goal is to maximise our reward/risk ratio and optimize our returns,
aiming to maximize our potential gains whilst minimizing the associated
risks.
Sam Kirtley
SKkoptionstrading
Mr. Kirtley
manages www.skoptiontrading.com and offers real time trading signals to
subscribers. You can click here for
more information.
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