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"The
Austrians were right" is a phrase we hear often now, and for good
reason. The housing bubble and bust were called by the Austrians and,
essentially, no one else. The Austrians were right about the dot-com bubble
and bust. The Austrians were right about the 1970s stagflation and explosion
in the price of gold after the gold window was closed.
You can tick through
the issues and see that the Austrians have been right again and again
throughout history: on price controls, on protectionism, on bailouts, on
wars, on regulation, on prohibitions and civil liberties, and so on.
But issues
concerning fiat money and the business cycle stand out because the Austrians
possess unique insight. Only the Austrians have consistently warned that fiat
money creates the wrong incentives for the banking industry, that
central-bank manipulation of interest rates distorts the structure of
production, that the combination of paper money and central banking leads to
economic calamity.
These insights
are not new, though many people are discovering them right now for the first
time. From the moment Mises's 1912 book, The Theory of Money and Credit, made
its appearance, and warned about the grave danger to free enterprise
represented by paper money and central banking, the Austrians have been
right.
That's 100 years
of "we told you so."
Right in the
middle of these years, there was a forgotten episode in monetary history that
teaches us lessons today. It concerns the controversial role that Henry
Hazlitt played in battling the Bretton Woods monetary system enacted after
the Second World War.
Under Mises's
influence, Hazlitt used his editorial position at the New York Times
to warn against the plan, predicting correctly that it would lead to world
inflation. For saying what he said, he was pushed out of his position at the
Times. He paid a high price for being right, but this did not stop him. He
kept going in his work of speaking truth to power.
The Times
should offer an official apology, and admit that their one-time editorialist
was 100% correct. I'm not expecting that anytime soon.
Let us recount
the events.
At the end of
World War II, the monetary condition of all nations was deplorable. The U.S.
faced a massive debt overhang from the war and yet this country was still a
creditor nation to the world. The U.S. also had huge stockpiles of gold. Most
everyone else was flat-out bankrupt, as only a gargantuan government program
can accomplish. The main currencies had been wrecked and the main economies along
with them.
As was the
fashion, world elites assembled to plan some gigantic coordinated solution.
They met from July 1 to July 22, 1944, at the Bretton Woods Hotel in Bretton
Woods, NH, and drafted the Articles of Agreement. It was nearly a year and a
half later, in December 1945, that the agreement was ratified. On March 1947,
one of the monstrosities created during the event, the International Monetary
Fund, began operations.
What was the goal
of the plan? It was the same goal as at the founding of the Federal Reserve
and the same goal that has guided every monetary plan in modern history. The
stated idea was to promote economic growth, encourage macroeconomic
stability, and, most absurdly, tame inflation. Of course, it did none of
these things.
There are other
analogies to the Fed. In the same way that the Fed was to serve as a lender
of last resort, a provider of liquidity in times of instability, so too the
Bretton Woods Agreement obligated all member nations to make their currencies
available to be loaned to other countries to prevent temporary
balance-of-payment problems.
There was to be
no talk at all about what created these balance-of-payment problems. The
assumption was that they were like bad weather or earthquakes or floods, just
something that happens to countries from time to time. The unspoken truth was
that monetary problems and the related problems with balance of payment are
created by bad policies: governments that inflate, spend too much, run high
debts, control their economies, impose trade protections, create gigantic
welfare states, fight world wars, and otherwise undermine property rights.
As with all
government plans, Bretton Woods was dealing with symptoms rather than causes,
and treating those symptoms in a way that enables and even encourages the
disease. It pegged currencies at unrealistic levels, provided a bailout
mechanism for governments and banking establishments to continue to do what
they should not be doing, and thereby prolonged the problems and made them
worse in the long run.
Governments have
been throwing our good money after bad for a very long time. The plan, just
as with the latest round of bailouts in the U.S. or Europe, was to dump money
on near-bankrupt countries and thereby encourage them to continue with the
very policies and practices that created the problem to begin with.
The core problem
of the world monetary system after World War II was essentially that the gold
standard had broken down, or rather, government had destroyed what remained
of the old-fashioned gold standard through relentless inflation, debt, and
devaluation. Economists in the Keynesian tradition had encouraged this,
viewing money creation as some sort of panacea for all that ailed the world
economy.
Keynes, the
maestro of the Bretton Woods Conference, himself had recommended this and
celebrated the results. To him, a flexible and standard-less currency was the
key to macroeconomic manipulation of his beloved aggregates. In a perverse
way, he was right about this. A government on the gold standard is seriously
constrained. It can't take a sledgehammer to aggregate supply and aggregate
demand. It can't spend beyond its means. It must pay for the programs it
creates through taxation, which means having to curb the appetite for welfare
and warfare. There can be no such thing as a Keynesian state on the gold
standard, any more then a cocaine addict or compulsive gambler can be on a
strict budget.
Keynes’s
message at Bretton Woods, in Mises's summary, was that the world elites could
turn stones into bread. And so under the influence of Keynes, the target at
the Bretton Woods meeting was liberalism itself, which was widely assumed to
have failed during the Great Depression. The elites also came out of World
War II with a more profound appreciation for the role of central planning.
They had reveled in it.
The Bretton Woods
plan for monetary reconstruction did not go as far as Keynes would have
liked. He proposed a full-scale world central bank and a single paper
currency for all nations, which he wanted to be called the
"bancor," so there could be no escaping inflation. That plan is
still awaiting implementation. As it was, the Bretton Woods conferees, under
pressure from the U.S. – which wanted the dollar to be the bancor
– took a compromise position. They would create not a gold standard,
though it was called that for reasons of credibility. Instead it was a global
gold dollar standard, or, more precisely, a phony gold standard.
The Bretton Woods
system established a gold dollar that was fixed at $35 per ounce. But it was
the only currency so fixed. Every other currency could be a fiat currency
based on the dollar. What this obligated the U.S. to do, as the main creditor
nation to the world, was ship out dollars to the world while somehow
maintaining the dollar's connection to gold. It was a prescription for
disaster, as should be obvious.
To be sure, there
is nothing wrong with the gold standard in one country. The United States
could do that now. But that was not what Bretton Woods established. The
dollar was not convertible into gold at the domestic level. You could not go
into your bank and exchange dollars for gold. It was only convertible on an
international level, and only for governments, so that the U.S. was obligated
to ship out gold instead of paper when it was so demanded. This established
some limit on credit expansion at home but not enough of one. Few were
courageous enough to demand gold from the empire. Yet it is clear just from
this description of the plan that the pressure to spend and redeem would
eventually lead the U.S. to go back on its word. It took some twenty years,
long after the original crafters of the deal had left the scene, but economic
logic could not be gainsaid.
The breakdown
really began soon after the plan was implemented. But most of the effects
were disguised through currency controls. Once the 1960s came, and the
expenses of LBJ's welfare-warfare state mounted, the Fed played its
traditional role as the financier of big government. Pressure on the dollar
mounted, foreign governments became more interested in the gold than the
paper, and the whole cockamamie scheme unraveled under Nixon’s
welfare-warfare state. When the world entered the all-paper money regime,
most economists said than the price of gold would fall from $35. The
Austrians predicted the opposite.
From the very
beginning, Henry Hazlitt saw it all coming, and warned against Bretton Woods.
He took the job of editorial writer for the New York Times in 1934,
after having been drummed out of the editorial spot at the post-Mencken American
Mercury because he was Jewish. Mencken had called Hazlitt "the only
economist who can really write," and the NYT job was a good
position for him, one for which he was well prepared. He would write mostly
unsigned editorials, speaking for the paper and not for himself.
In fact, when
many years later his editorials were collected in a book edited by George
Koether called From Bretton Woods to World Inflation, his
archives were the only place that revealed his authorship. Because he was
writing them in an institutional voice, his tone was moderated to some
extent, a fact he later regretted. Even so, anyone today has to stand in
amazement to read the New York Times editorializing against loose
money, paper currency, central banking, and the like. But that was what
Hazlitt accomplished.
He began his
editorials in 1934 with a major call for the reinstitution of the gold
standard. He urged that the U.S. and Britain jointly agree to a fixed gold
standard. He said that this action would "symbolize a return to
international collaboration in a world that has been drifting steadily toward
a more and more intense nationalism." And truly, if one thinks about it,
a world that had heeded Hazlitt's advice might have avoided the incredible
calamity of World War II, the 50 million dead, the communization of Europe,
and the bankruptcy and horrors the followed. And why? Because the nationalism
about which he warned in 1934 would have abated, and all governments would
have sought diplomatic rather than murderous solutions.
Of course, his
advice was not heeded, and the drive to destroy money and prosperity
continued, all the way to the globalized holocaust of World War II.
Now let us jump
ahead, ten years after Hazlitt had written his first blast. Hazlitt was still
advocating the same thing, not a system in which strong currencies subsidize
bad policies, but a system in which each nation maintains the integrity of
its own currency. That requires not centrally planned integration but the
opposite. Instead of promising to intervene to bail out bad debt, nations
should swear not to intervene. Only this path prevents moral hazard and
maintains the gold standard.
He wrote as
follows: "the belief that only a rich nation can afford a gold standard
is a fallacy." Gold is suitable for every nation, he explained, provided
it has something to sell. He concludes with these words before the Bretton
Woods conferees gathered: "The greatest single contribution the United
States could make to world currency stability after the war is to announce
its determination to stabilize its own currency. It will incidentally help
us, of course, if other nations as well return to the gold standard. They
will do it, however, only to the extent that they recognize that they are
doing it not primarily as a favor to us but to themselves."
It is remarkable
to realize that these words appeared as a New York Times editorial! We
have here a world far removed from the Keynesian drivel of Paul Krugman. Put
simply, there is no justice in this world when Hazlitt, who was correct, gets
shoved out and his successors are of a school of thought that was completely
wrong.
Keep in mind,
too, that this was written one month before the opening of the conference. In
the weeks that followed, Hazlitt was hot on the trail for news on what was
coming. He seized on the statements of principles. It expressly permitted a
change in the gold value of member currency on a unanimous vote from government.
Hazlitt spoke
with a passion as follows: "this is a provision which would permit world
inflation. Experience has shown that it is extremely unlikely that any
government will wish to raise the unit gold value of its currency.... the
political pressures from time immemorial, and particularly in the last three
decades, have been in the direction of devaluation and inflation."
Even before the
delegates met, he correctly saw that the uniformity provision was not a limit
to inflation but rather a license. If one country devalues, it sees the value
of its currency fall on international exchange. But if this is done in
cooperation with everyone else, the country can avoid the penalty. This is
precisely what accounts for the decades-old drive for international
cooperation in monetary affairs. It is the same driving force behind why the
Fed was concocted. So long as the system is decentralized, each bank or each
country must deal with the fallout from its own bad policies. But if you
centralize the system, bad policies can be more easily swept under the rug,
with the costs widely dispersed throughout the system.
Or as Hazlitt
wrote, "it would be difficult to think of a more serious threat to world
stability and full production than the continual prospect of a uniform world
inflation to which the politicians of every country would be so easily
tempted."
Two days later,
still before the conference opened, Hazlitt nailed it and explain precisely
why Bretton Woods could not last. Under the plan, the creditor nations
– meaning the U.S. and Britain – would pledge themselves to buy
the currency of net debtor nations in order to keep the currency value at
parity. Even if other countries devalue their currencies, the U.S. would be
on the hook for buying it to maintain the fixed paper-to-gold ratio. This is
precisely what led to the undoing of the entire system from 1969 to 1971.
This, my friends, is prophetic.
Hazlitt was not
just speaking for a sector of opinion here. So far as he could tell, and so
far as anyone has been able to discern since these days, Hazlitt was
completely alone in speaking these truths. No one else joined him, at least
not in the U.S. France had Jacques Rueff, who famously denounced the entire
scheme. Switzerland had Michael Heilperin, who stood firm for the gold
standard. Hayek in London actually submitted to the Bretton Woods delegates a
draft plan for a real gold standard for every nation. It was completely
ignored.
Only Hazlitt was
on the front lines in the U.S., by himself, writing constantly and
passionately day by day to make a difference. More remarkable still, he was
able to voice these lone opinions via the institutional voice of the New
York Times. That was quite the accomplishment, a real testament to his
own power to persuade.
All of his
thoughts that I've so far reported were penned before the monetary conference
had even met. He had already spotted the core problems of the proposed plan
and explained how it would unravel.
On July 1, 1944,
when the representatives first gathered, he greeted them with a punch in the
nose. He questioned their competence, employing what would later be called
the Hayekian knowledge problem. Here are his words from the editorial written
the day the conference opened: "it would be impossible to imagine a more
difficult time for individual nations to decide at what level they can fix
and stabilize their national currency unit. How could the representatives of
France, of Holland, of Greece, of China, make any but the wildest guess at
this moment of the point at which they could hope to stabilize?"
The delegates
must have read that passage with their morning coffee, spewing it around the
table. Too bad that more of them didn't choke on their crumpets.
Hazlitt further
said that the conference was planning to solve a problem by not realizing
what the problem was. The issue, he said, is not a lack of currency value
parity but rather the policies that are driving down the value of the
currency in weak countries. He writes that it is of course possible to
temporarily fix any price. But in the long term, it proves impossible.
He offers an
analogy to a stock share that is worthless but nonetheless sells for $100
each. It is possible to maintain a high price, but when the resources of the
buyer run out, the stock price will drop. There is no force on the planet
that can keep a falling price from dropping once the resources to maintain it
are gone.
Of course this
insight is a short summary of nearly all economic policy of our times. Whether
the subject is houses, stocks, or wages, the goal of the stimulation packages
has been to maintain high prices that cannot be maintained. As for the
resources to make the high prices stick, in our day, the answer is to create
ever more phony money to engage in this make-believe program.
In the midst of
the Bretton Woods proceedings, Hazlitt hit the American delegates with
another punch in the nose. He made fun of how the Americans in particular are
under the impression that they can solve any problems in the world by setting
up machinery in the form of an organization. It could be an organization to
make water run uphill or to keep rocks from falling but the Americans are
under the belief that if the president is behind anything, anything can be
accomplished. He states the contrary truth very bluntly. The restoration of
peace and prosperity will not come from setting up another organization but
rather by abandoning protectionism, capital export restrictions, important
quotas, and competitive depreciation of currencies. America's greatest
contribution, he wrote, would be to further balance its budget and halt
deficit financing.
As for the
American love of machinery he writes: "genuine international economic
cooperation after the war will be possible only if there is a profound change
from the ideology of the Thirties."
As the
proceedings dragged on, Hazlitt turned out to have foreshadowed the newest
development. The delegates had not only planned to create the IMF but also
create what was then the predecessor to the World Bank: the International
bank for Reconstruction and Development. The whole project, wrote Hazlitt,
"rests on the assumption that nothing will be done right unless a
grandiose formal intergovernmental institution is set up to do it. It assumes
that nothing will be run well unless governments run it."
Toughening his
rhetoric, Hazlitt goes after Keynes by name, drawing attention to his
preposterous claim that it would be invidious to discriminate between
member nations based on their credit worthiness. Hilariously, Hazlitt sums up
the plan for the World Bank with this general observation: "world
economic revival will not necessarily flow from a plan under which taxpayers
are saddled by their own governments with losses from huge foreign loans made
regardless of their soundness."
After the
meetings closed, the debate on ratification began. Hazlitt made it clear what
was really at stake: the freedom of the individual vs. the plans of
government. "These agreements presuppose," he wrote, "a world
in which the type of government controls developed in the twenties and
thirties are to be expanded and systemized. What is contemplated is a world
in which international trade is state-dominated."
Hazlitt must have
felt intense pressure in these days. There are times in politics when the
state and its paid experts make everyone feel as if some proposed plan is
absolutely necessary for survival, and to be against it is tantamount to
treason. In our own times, it was this way during the Nafta debate, the WTO
debate, and the debate on the creation of such bureaucratic monstrosities as
the Department of Homeland Security and the Transportation Security
Administration, or the drive for wars in the Middle East, or the hysteria for
TARP et al. To be the outlier is to elicit heaps of scorn and derision.
It was the same
with Bretton Woods during 1944 and 1945. No one ever found a logical problem
or a factual error in what Hazlitt was writing. They didn't bother to. The
point was that this was a mega-priority for the international elite and no
respectable paper could really oppose the plan.
As a way of
showing that he was not a lone critic, Hazlitt began to write about other
critics, which were very few in number. He seized on a small criticism
offered by any journal or any association and highlighted it. But the critics
were thinning and every time one reared its head, he was summarily slapped
down. All the while, the defenses of Bretton Woods were getting more extreme,
with claims that if it didn't pass, the world would fall apart. The
supporters were more and more open about their anti-market ideology, as when
Secretary Morgenthau openly said that business can't run foreign exchange. It
is up to the governments of the world to do it.
Hazlitt drew
attention to these statements and also the open statements by Keynes that
Bretton Woods amounted to the opposite of a gold standard. Hazlitt wrote his
most poignant rhetoric in these days, claiming that the result of the
monetary plans would be world inflation and massive economic instability. The
internal pressures were increasing on him, as letters started arriving from
London and D.C. to object to what the paper was saying. Hazlitt clearly saw
the writing on the wall but still stuck to his guns all throughout the spring
of 1945 as Congress was debating and preparing ratification.
Finally, the
publisher of the New York Times had had enough. Arthur Sulzberger came
to him and said "when 43 governments sign an agreement, I don't see how
the Times can any longer combat this."
Hazlitt began to
pack his bags. After he left, his revenge was a massive article on the
subject in the American Scholar, published later that year. Then he
wrote the book that would become the biggest selling economics book of all
time: Economics in One Lesson. His
goal with this book was to propagate the core principles of economics, so
that anyone could do what he had done, which was see the fallacies of the
logic behind crazy government schemes. He wrote the book in record time, and
got it out the door as soon as possible. Of course it was a blockbuster. It
remains to this day our best-selling book.
In 1967, Hazliltt
also had a last laugh, if it is a laughing matter to see your worst
predictions come true. Hazlitt was now a syndicated columnist with the Los
Angeles Times. He wrote about the unraveling of the system, which finally
happened in 1969. By 1971, the entire world was on a fiat money paper
standard and the result has been nothing short of catastrophic for societies
and economies, which have been thrown into unrelenting chaos.
To be sure,
Hazlitt was not, as he said, the "seventh son of the seventh son."
He wasn't born with some amazing prophetic power. What Hazlitt did was read
Mises and come to understand monetary economics. It sounds easy until you
realize just how rare these talents were in his day and in ours.
There is another
aspect to what Hazlitt did. He could have very easily relented or just stayed
silent. It took moral courage and incredible intellectual stamina to tell the
truth as he did when the whole world seemed to be against him. But so far as
he was concerned, this was why he was put on the earth and why he got into
writing in the first place: to tell the truth. He wasn't threatened with jail
or violence. The only thing he had to fear was the derision of his
colleagues. What truth teller in the history of the world hasn't faced that?
We might ask
ourselves: why is it important to revisit this history now? As regards the
details of Bretton Woods, it is extremely important to understand that this
was not a genuine gold standard. It was a fake gold standard managed by an
unworkable plan cobbled together by governments. It is the height of
absurdity that supply-siders and others have for years been pining for a
return to Bretton Woods and calling it a return to the gold standard. A new
Bretton Woods would fail as surely as the first one did. It would certainly
not be a step in the right direction to re-institute Bretton Woods.
That Bretton
Woods was called a gold standard was an exercise in obfuscation. It happened
for the same reason that NAFTA was called free trade or the FTC is said to
protect competition. The state has long used the language of liberalism and
the market economy as a plow to push through its opposite. The gold standard
was an early victim in this war over words.
A genuine gold
standard is implemented currency by currency. It provides for domestic,
on-demand convertibility. It allows for banks to fail on their own. It has no
central banks. It surely has no international monetary institutions for
lending bankrupt governments money. This is the only way toward real
stability. Hazlitt said it in the New York Times and it remains true
today.
If we want to go
further with an impenetrable system of money and banking, we would follow
Rothbard (Hazlitt once told me that the greatest achievement of the Mises
Institute was to give Murray a "suitable platform") and completely
privatize the system, permitting private coinage of any money. This would be
all the more viable in our own times, with digital payment systems and global
communication. In fact, I'm quite sure that had the state not intervened, the
internet would have already put together a competitive system of currency and
banking that would exist completely outside the state's purview. A very
viable means of reform we could undertake right now is for the state to
simply do nothing. The dollar might be beyond salvation at this point, but
money itself is not, of course. Money is an essential part of the market
economy, so therefore let us let the market make it and manage it.
The stakes are impossible
to overstate. Fiat paper money is destroying civilization right now. It has
fueled the predator state. It has destabilized markets. It has wrecked
balance sheets and distorted financial markets. It has wrecked the culture by
leading the whole world to believe that prosperity can come as if by magic,
that stones can be turned into bread. It might yet unleash a ravaging
inflation that will be welcomed by dictators, despots, and cruel tyrants.
How important is
sound money? The whole of civilization depends on it. We must accept no
compromise. Down with government plans. Down with international commissions.
Down with attempts to manipulate and control that always end in robbing us
and making us poorer than we would otherwise be. We should embrace no more
and no less than what the old liberals of the 18th and 19th centuries
championed. All
we ask is laissez-faire.
Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr
www.LewRockwell.com
Llewellyn H.
Rockwell, Jr. is founder and president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute in
Auburn, Alabama, editor of LewRockwell.com, and author of Speaking of Liberty.
Copyright ©
2010 by LewRockwell.com. By authorization from Lew Rockwell
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