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I have been going
on about the coming shortage of coins due to limited
minting capacity in the industry for a while now. This interview with refiner Argor-Heraeus by
Mineweb confirms this, see quote below.
Geoff
Candy: Are we likely to see a shortage of supply of these sorts of
denominations.
Bernhard Schnellmann: A shortage yes, but that's not because of the metal,
it's just because of the minting capacity. You have to same situations of the
four coins - if the bullion coin - if we are sold out it's not because there
is not enough gold around but also because there are not enough minting
presses around.
If you believe
there will be increased mass market demand for gold going forward and like
your minted coins or bars, then stock up now because you will face premium
increases and/or rationing. Once that happens small cast bars will be the
other economical option and I think it would be a while before industry
capacity is maxed out for them.
I would also draw attention to Bernhard's comment that being sold out does
not indicate that "there is not enough gold around". The
"selling out" of retail size coins and bars is an indicator of mass
market demand and is bullish, but it is not an indicator of no gold. If you
see any commentator claiming this, then the only thing it is indicating is
that the commentator has no precious metals industry experience on the physical
side and in my view any basic commercial sense, in which case you should
consider carefully any of their other claims. It is a very good indicator of
a hype merchant rather than someone trying to give you good advice.
Bron Suchecki
Goldchat.blogspot.com
Bron Suchecki has
worked in the precious metals markets since 1994, when he joined the Perth
Mint as an Administration Officer in their Sydney retail outlet. In 1998 he
moved to Perth to work in the then fledgling Depository division. He has held
a number of roles since then in the treasury, risk and governance areas of
the Mint.
All posts are Bron's personal opinion and not endorsed by the Perth Mint in
any way.
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