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Economists and
Wall Street "strategists" spend a great deal of time monitoring
consumer expectations to try and get a read on future spending patterns.
Presumably, such an approach would also make sense when it comes to the
biggest purchase that most Americans might make in their lifetimes?
Under the
circumstances, when we have reports like this:
"Most
Americans Think Housing Recovery Won't Happen Until 2014" (Richmond
Times-Dispatch)
Looking for
light at the end of the housing tunnel four years after the bubble burst?
It is dim,
national housing experts said Wednesday in a conference call about the
results of a consumer survey on American attitudes on foreclosures.
"I would
love to say we have taken a few steps forward, but the reality is we are
still taking steps back," said Pete Flint, chief executive officer of Trulia, an online real estate resource. "I expect
the rest of 2011 to continue to be volatile. It will be another 18 months
before we see signs of price stability."
Most Americans
agree, he said.
More than half
of U.S. adults think the recovery will not happen until 2014 or later,
according to a study released Wednesday by Trulia
and RealtyTrac, an online resource for
foreclosures.
The study
looked at how Americans feel about buying foreclosed homes. People also were
asked when they think the housing market will recover and whether the
government is doing enough to help homeowners.
In a similar
study conducted six months ago, 42 percent of American adults thought the
market would turn around by 2012, but only 23 percent think that will happen
now. --
why are
so-called experts constantly "surprised" by data that indicates
conditions remain bad, or by stories like this:
"Sustained
Recovery in Housing Remains Elusive: Fannie Mae" (HousingWire)
A sustained
recovery in the housing sector remains elusive as distressed home sales
continue to dominant a large part of the sector's activity, Fannie Mae said
in its May 2011 Economic Outlook report.
Single-family
homebuilding activity was weak in the first quarter, while housing starts and
new home sales remained flat at already depressed levels, suggesting a state
of optimism in the housing sector of the economy is difficult to maintain.
The economy
slowed dramatically in the first quarter, dipping to a growth rate of 1.8%
from 3.1% in the final quarter of 2010. Despite that drop, Fannie Mae's
long-term economic forecasts predict more than 3% growth in the next few
years.
Fannie's Chief
Economist Doug Duncan said despite low prices, low interest rates and improving
job numbers, consumer attitudes have yet to rebound in a way that turns the
tide.
"In spite
of the positives surrounding the housing market, we see that consumers are
still hesitant to take on a large financial obligation. Nevertheless, we do
forecast some improvement in home sales over the course of 2011 compared to
2010," Duncan said.
Contrary to
what some would have you believe, you don't need to be a rocket scientist to
get some kind of decent handle on the road ahead.
Michael J. Panzner
Editor, Financialarmageddon.com
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