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Loss of Faith and the Decay of Trust in Measured
Terms
With the
downgrade of Societe General and Credit Agricole, two of the largest French banks, because of their
Greek debt holdings, it is certain that any default by Greece (which still
looks more than likely) will trigger major banking crises. Moody’s
lowered Credit Agricole to Aa2 from Aa1 because of
its Greek holdings, and will continue to review the impact of funding markets
on the rating. Societe Generale
was reduced to Aa3 from Aa2, with a negative outlook, as Moody’s
re-evaluated its level of state support. BNP Paribas (BNP) SA, the largest
French bank, had its Aa2 long-term rating kept on review for a possible cut.
French lenders top the list of Greek creditors with $56.7 billion in exposure
to private and public debt. BNP Paribas has declined 41% in Paris trading
this year, Credit Agricole has fallen 46% and Societe Generale has dropped
55% on escalating concern that the European sovereign debt crisis is turning
into a banking crisis.
Deposits by
financial institutions in Greek banks, which make up 21% of the total, have
fallen by one-third since the beginning of 2010, while those by non-financial
firms and residents dropped 9%, according to Bank of Greece data. In Germany,
deposits by financial institutions, which account for one-third the total,
declined 12% over the same period and 24% since the September 2008 collapse
of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. In France, where the erosion started last
year, the same type of deposits, which make up half
the total, are down 6% since June 2010. They have fallen 14% since May 2010
at Spanish banks, where they account for one-fifth of the total. Deposits
include money kept in banks by individuals and companies. Most of the
short-term funding supplied by financial institutions and money funds is
counted as deposits by the E.C.B. and other central banks in Europe. While
retail deposits at Italian banks have fallen only 1% in the past year, the
outflow of money from financial institutions has exceeded $100 billion, a 13%
decline, according to Bank of Italy and E.C.B. data. In Portugal, where banks
raised the interest rates they pay savers, non-residents have reduced deposits
by 19% since March 2010.
 
The eight largest U.S. money-market funds halved their lending to
German, French and U.K. banks over the past 12 months and stopped financing
Italian and Spanish financial firms. A survey by Fitch Ratings showed that
U.S. money-market funds reduced their lending to European banks by 20% from
the end of May through July. The funds cut investments in Spanish and Italian
lenders by 97%, to German firms by 42% and to French ones by 18%. The Aug. 22
survey covers almost half the $1.53 trillion assets held by money funds in
the U.S.
The trouble is
that the interwoven nature of banks holding all sovereign debt is as complex
as a spider’s web. So if a major bank, or banks, sag beneath such burdens,
so will a host of as yet unnamed other banks. This will give new meaning to
the word ‘contagion’. As it is, the smell of a ‘run’
on banks is in the air.
Retail and
institutional deposits at Greek banks fell 19% in the past year and almost
40% at Irish lenders in 18 months. Meanwhile, European Union financial firms
are lending less to one another and U.S. money-market funds have reduced
their investments in German, French and Spanish banks. While the European
Central Bank has picked up some of the slack, providing about €500
billion ($685 billion) of temporary financing, banks are cutting lending,
which could slow growth in their home countries. They’re also paying
more to keep and attract deposits or, in the case of Italy, selling bonds to
retail customers for five times the interest they offer on savings accounts,
which will erode profitability. It shows that even European banks don’t
trust each other anymore, so they’re taking their money out of the E.U.
system. It’s similar to the distrust that happened worldwide in 2008.
In essence,
what faith that remains Eurozone is centered in the European Central Bank. To
make up their deficits, firms are leaning on the E.C.B. for short-term
funding. Borrowing by Italian lenders from the central bank more than doubled
to €85 billion between June and August. Greek and Irish banks each took
about €100 billion from the E.C.B. in August. Irish lenders also got
€56 billion from their domestic central bank. Portuguese banks borrowed
about €46 billion from the E.C.B., while Spanish banks took €52
billion in July. What was the collateral that gave the E.C.B. cause to lend?
It was government bonds that were not able to raise funds at reasonable rates
in the market place. Could the E.C.B. cash in these bonds? It’s
possible but with the E.C.B. the seller, they would not even fetch a small
percentage of their face value.
Will it Get Worse?
With Greece
finding it more and more difficult to find the money to manage their awful
debt situation as the country is forecast to suffer a 5% recession now the
cash flow from government receipts is dropping quickly. The sale of
government owned assets is telling a similar story with assets priced at
€1.2 billion fetching around €400 million. Let’s face it,
avoiding bankruptcy is all about an adequate cash flow and that’s
looking unreachable.
Market talk is that Greece could leave the Eurozone and its debts
behind it, despite Merkel and Sarkozy being convinced it won’t. If they
do they will have to return to the Drachma! To prevent massive exits of
Capital, we have no doubt that they will have to make it a two-tier currency
–one for financial transactions at a deep discount to the other [30+%?]
and the other at a reasonable level for trade and tourism transactions.
Greece will have some of the nicest and low-priced holidays on offer. Remember, runaway inflation starts with
stringent liquidity problems!
European and Worldwide Banking System
Will There Be a Role for Gold?
The ripple
effect of a Greek exit from the Eurozone in a bankrupt state will not only
savage their balance sheet but trigger fears in the remaining depositors that
their banks could be next. The structure of the banking system is so
interwoven that it is possible that it will seize up, if only for a while.
Trust in government’s finances in the developed world is already at a
low. It will take governments to act ‘in concert’ to save the
banking industry, such as we have seen in the U.S.A. but internationally.
This is happening right now!
Failure to do
so will result in some spectacular bank collapses. With the monetary system
going into shock the need for a reference point for value becomes critical.
The head of the World Bank, Mr. Zoellick, called
for gold to be used in that role last year. His warnings this week of the
dangers facing the world reiterate the depth of the crisis and validate last
year’s call. We wonder if the global monetary authorities will now
listen.
This crisis will change the role of
gold in the future
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