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Chris Martenson: Welcome Eric, it's a real
pleasure to have you today.
Eric Sprott: Chris, good to be here and
thank you for all the work you are doing in apprising your investors of
what's really going on in the world.
Chris Martenson: Oh thank you.
We’ve been at it many years and unfortunately much of what I think both
you and I saw coming - though unfortunately not enough others along the way -
is really coming to pass. If I could, let’s start with your views. You
have been advocating and creating investment vehicles for people to own gold
and silver for a long time. How did you get to that position and what are
your views on owning gold and silver at this point?
Eric Sprott: Sure. Well it all started,
Chris, with our studies back in 2001 where we were entering into a secular
bear market and wondering how you deal with that. And a typical response
would be to own gold and silver, which is what we decided to do. I think the
one thing that really tipped us into it was an analysis of the physical
supply and demand for gold and some work by Frank Veneroso that suggested
things would have to change dramatically in the physical gold market because
the central banks were selling four to five hundred tons a year. And as you
know, here we are eleven years later and now they are buying four hundred
tons a year on balance, and this is in a market where the mines supply only
twenty-six hundred tons a year. So that is a huge change that had to take
place that Frank identified back then. He also identified that the gold
companies would stop hedging. We’ve had the ETF’s come along. So
we have had a lot of dramatic changes in the physical balance between supply
and demand in gold. And that is really what took us there in 2000; to get
actively involved in that particular market.
Chris Martenson: And looking at it
today, has anything changed in that analysis? You mentioned a secular bear
market, are we still in one and also has anything changed in the fundamental
supply/demand equation that has actually tipped it one way or the other,
further or less, since the initial analysis you looked at?
Eric Sprott: Sure. Well I do think
we are still in the secular bear market and basically what people describe
with the phrase “extend and pretend”. And we had the zero
interest rate policy, the housing boom, the lending boom, TARP and TALF and
all those things which try to delay what naturally should happen. When I look
at the headwinds for gold and silver, I really believe that we have been
aided and abetted by a lot of these policies, particularly QE1 and QE2 and
the various printing mechanisms of the ECB and the Japanese government and
almost all governments in the world. So as much as I would not have
anticipated those types of developments happening, they have happened and
they provide an even stronger headwind for people realizing that currencies
are not going to survive and to maintain your purchasing power you have to
own precious metals.
Chris Martenson: You know, I too have been
surprised by how long all of this has stretched out. If you had told me five
years ago - Eric if you had said “Chris, the Federal Government in the
U.S. is going to be running a $1.6 trillion dollar deficit and the Federal
Reserve is going to monetizing 75% of that and the bond markets will be
relatively tame and the dollar will still be roughly where it is at”; I
would have said you’re nuts. But here we are. And my view on this is
that what we are kicking the can down the road. We have bought some time, -
which I am thankful for personally - however the risks are now increasing.
And the risk that I have identified that concerns me a lot is that, sooner or
later, much is happening in Greece right now where suddenly the world wakes
up and says “Hey, wait a minute. They can’t possibly pay that
back. And at 22% interest rates on 2-year paper, they really can’t pay
that back.” So suddenly the illusion is lifted. We have
collectively suddenly gone, “Greece is not solvent. Oh, that’s
terrible.” And now we are grappling with that. But that same dynamic
can be extended to, I think, any of the governments that you just mentioned.
It varies across Europe somewhat, but in Japan and the U.S. there certainly
are fundamental mismatches between current productive economic output and the
levels of indebtedness. We are printing our way to that. Is there a way that
you can see that this could actually be turned around where it all sort of
pencils out? Is there a solution to this that does not have to pass through a
fiscal crisis and possibly a currency crisis?
Eric Sprott: Well Chris, it is very hard
to imagine that happening. And then I look at really what has happened over
the last eleven years since we hit the high in that, we basically created a
problem in the world of banking business and I always think of banks as being
levered 20 to 1. And when your paper assets start to decline, of
course it does not take much of a decline to get rid of all the capital. And
we have seen that in so many instances whether it is Iceland or Ireland or
now the Greek banks. And all the moves that have happened so far, really have
been in response to the problems in the banking system. That is why you have
TARP and TALF and all those things because the banks basically were losing
deposits and somebody had to come in and support them. That is what happened
in the UK, it happened in Iceland, it happened in Ireland, it’s
happening in Greece as is transpiring right now. And I think the big fear is
that you cannot let one banking system go down without an impact on all the
other banking systems. So collectively everyone is trying to support the
banking system and I think people see through the ruse. And the natural
reaction is “Well, why have your money in a bank when you earn nothing,
why not have it in something that might at least maintain its purchasing
power?”
Chris Martenson: Well absolutely. So
all kinds of productive assets spring to mind as well as wealth preservation
vehicles, gold and silver being obvious. But also we are seeing some of that dynamic
in the commodity complex in land prices, particularly for farmland and
timberland. There are, I think, many people who have come to the same
conclusion which is, that there is something structurally flawed both
internally to the whole economic and fiat money model, and also externally,
which is my metaphor for bringing in peak oil and the idea that we are really
going to be facing an enormous headwind of rising energy prices - no matter
how we slice it at this point unless we discover something really
magnificent. And so these are all upon us. And here we are, when you look
forward into this there is a big debate out there: does this end up in an
inflationary crunch, or do we go down a deflationary crunch? In my mind, I
hold gold under both circumstances. What are your views?
Eric Sprott: Well, first of all, I
can’t agree with you more. I think three of the safest areas to be
involved in are the precious metals, agriculture, and energy. Energy,
unfortunately, might if there is some kind of economic crisis, go down in the
short term. But I think if you would withdraw funding for the energy industry
with the decline rates we have in oil and gas production, if people stop
drilling, we would certainly see a very, very quick recovery. So I could not
agree with you more. There is obviously does not seem to be any solution at
hand of the problems and I think people should stay focused on those
particular areas.
Chris Martenson: And how would they do
that in your mind? I know you have got a couple of funds that deal with these
pieces. I know that I get questions all the time from people who are
concerned about geopolitical risks, there are jurisdictional risks, taxes -
it is a very complicated environment. And I think increasingly complicated as
governments struggle to maintain revenues and receipts and all of that. How
do you suggest people begin to approach getting into these areas, many of
which like agricultural land are very, very difficult. Most people are
stumped about how they would get into that particular area at all. What is
your advice there?
Eric Sprott: Well, agriculture is
the toughest because there are not really that many public companies I know
of. In Canada, there is not much. I mean for example we have potash companies
which we have been active in but there is not a lot of opportunity there in
the public domain. I guess in the private domain, people could own farmland
which you have already alluded to. But there are way more opportunities in
precious metals and oil and gas. And I particularly emphasize precious metals
because they are amongst the most liquid markets in the world. There are
many, many vehicles available. Some have way better attributes than others,
that is why we created funds where if you buy our gold or silver trust, you
can actually receive the gold or silver. Of course, they could always buy
coins, which they have been doing in great quantities here. So those would be
my primary recommendations to people, buy something where you can get access
to physical metal.
Chris Martenson: Physical metal. And do
you ever give out - I know this is a complicated topic, depends by age and
economic bracket, other things - but do you have a range for a percent of
somebody’s portfolio that should be allocated to precious metals?
Eric Sprott: Chris, it’s a
favorite question I am asked all the time. And I always respond with what I
do. And I know in our equity funds, we are probably 75% involved in precious
metals. And probably 30% of that is physical metals and the other 45% is in
precious metals equities. In my own instance, I am seriously involved in
owning physical gold and silver and I do always point out that I do not have
any trouble going to sleep at night knowing that I own these metals because
there is no way that they are not going to hold their value in whichever
environment you have, whether it is deflation or inflation that you mentioned
earlier. And I happen to be of a view that we will see deflation in paper
assets, but we will see inflation in real assets.
Chris Martenson: Deflation in paper
assets, inflation in real assets. One distinction, do you include real estate
in your description of real assets?
Eric Sprott: I do not include real
estate. And the reason I do not include real estate is because it is
basically a function of interest rates and the economy. You know most real
estate is backed by loans and that creates a great problem. So I would
certainly distinguish as you have, that owning farmland, which is something
that produces something real, is more important than owning let’s say,
a commercial building that really is not producing anything but is backed by
some mortgage where ultimately the mortgage lender is going to have concern
that his loan will not be repaid and the price of that property would go
down.
Chris Martenson: Yeah, I share that view. In
this story, we get a lot a questions from people who are just sort of new to
the game and they look at gold at $1,500+ dollars, they look at silver right
around $36 now. They look at the historical chart and they gasp, and they say
“I can’t buy now.” How do you talk to people; what is your
advice around buying gold and silver now at these particular levels or at any
point in time? How would you advise people to go about building a core
position if they did not have one?
Eric Sprott: Well, I think that the
prices will continue higher. I mean the amount of money printing is
unbelievable. I just think you have to take that initial stand in terms of
buying it. I use the James Turk analogy: just keep dollar averaging. We have
gone up eleven years in a row, this year it looks like it will be no
exception; I would certainly think next year will be no exception. If we ever
have QE3 announced, I think gold and silver will just go absolutely bonkers
here. And so I just think you have got to step in there and own it;
we’ve had these fears all the way along. You know, $400, and $500 and
$700 and $800 dollar gold, everyone was afraid it was a one-time thing. I
don’t think it is a one-time thing, I think it is a secular thing. It’s
going to carry on for quite a while here until we find some resolution of
these problems. And the resolution probably will be some form of default
where people just have to expunge debts that cannot be repaid. So, you have
got to be in some asset which will not be affected by that.
Chris Martenson: I agree. You know I
hear a lot where people will say “gold is in a bubble” and they
use price as the indicator to prove that. Bubbles are not indicated by price
to me. They are indicated by psychology. A bubble is a component of social
psychology; finance is sort of an afterthought, we put prices on it. I still
can go to parties and find almost nobody who actually owns any physical gold
themselves or even anyone who own paper representations of gold. It is still
a very tiny minority I think, in the overall investing public at this point.
What I do see a lot of are ads to buy all of your ‘junk’ gold, as
if there is such a thing you know. Yeah, I keep all my junk gold in a barrel
out in the garage waiting to haul it off to the local motel where they are
holding a gold buying spree. I do not feel we are in a bubble yet, because
the psychology is not there. The housing bubble had that psychology; we had
hairdressers in Las Vegas with 19 homes. I do not know anybody who is a gold
trader, who has taken up gold trading at home or has become a broker or even
owns any. What are your views here on gold being in a bubble?
Eric Sprott: We’ve done some work
on that and we looked at the amount of money that had been invested in gold
from 2000 to 2010. And I think the waiting in gold went from 2% of
people’s portfolio to 0.8% of people’s portfolio. But if you just
look at the rise in the price ofgold over that time period,
it accounted for by far the majority of the increase in the total investment
in gold and silver. Which really means very few people were making new
investments in the area. And I think that is still the case. Yes, we have had
some early movers in gold. You know we had some of the hedge funds in the
States buy gold. We recently had that Texas pension fund buy physical gold.
But these are a few outliers here and I do not think it has hit the mainstream
to any extent whatsoever. And I might say in silver, I do not really see the
institutional participation in silver. When we went out marketing our silver
fund in October 2010, we had very, very weak response from the institutions,
which sort of told me, you know, they have not really taken the time to study
silver and the supply and demand situation there. And I think that is all yet
to come in both gold and silver, that it will hit a tipping point where
people do realize exactly what is going on and that these investments would
have a lot of merit in all funds.
Chris Martenson: Oh, I agree. And I
think that particularly longer-term funds who have a bigger view - these are
endowments, these are pension funds, these are people who are looking out across
decades - I don’t know how you can look across decades at silver and
its fundamental supply demand equation, its industrial utility, and its
potential monetary utility - for all of its pieces, I see an enormous
structural shortfall over time and that is, to me, a perfect investment
opportunity and something that anybody with a longer view would get involved
in. My silver, personally I have every intention of at least passing it to my
children, but possibly my grandchildren, should I ever have any. It is my Rip
Van Winkle portfolio. Because everything that I look at there, says there is
really not very many places for that to go except to become far more valuable
as we progress through time.
Eric Sprott: When I look at the
physical silver market, I mean there are some stunning developments. The
world supplies over 900 million ounces of silver a year. But if you simply go
back to the Chinese, in ’05 they were an exporter of 100 million
ounces; today they are an importer of 100 million ounces. That is a shift of
200 million ounces.
Chris Martenson: Wow
Eric Sprott: From one source, in a
900 million ounce market. Let’s go back to ’05, there were no
ETF’s. Now we have ETF’s that have 500 million ounces. You had
hedging which you do not have now, although there was some action put on late
last year, particularly by Carlos Slim. But I think all of the physical data
we see on silver is just screaming that there is a shortage. And in fact this
morning, I just looked at the Silver Institute’s study of supply and
demand for silver and I mean I find it almost ridiculous that they always
show supply equals demand and they have a plugged in number for investment
demand. Our own analysis suggests that demand for silver far outweighs supply
and ultimately the price has to go higher. As you have mentioned, the
industrial uses, I think last year were up something like 18% to 20%, the
investment demand was skyrocketing. I do not know where all this silver is
coming from, you have to ask yourself, well who in ’05 was getting
silver that today is not getting silver? The Chinese are buying so much and
coin sales are so high. I mean it just boggles the mind that somebody has not
come out and said they cannot access silver. And that is the day I am waiting
for, when let us say Eastman Kodak says, they cannot buy enough silver or
there is not silver available. That will really stun the silver market.
Chris Martenson: Hmm, so I really want
to wade into the CFTC and all of that in just a second but I remember reading
that your silver fund had bought quite an amount of silver, I think it was
several million ounces, I forget the number. And that it took a number of
months to actually receive it. Is that true?
Eric Sprott: Yes, when we started
the fund, we had to go into the market and buy fifteen million ounces of
silver, which is not a lot in the 900 million ounce market. The stunning
thing is that took about two and a half months to receive that silver. And
when we looked at the bars we see some of that silver we ultimately
purchased, was manufactured after we purchased it. In other words, it was manufactured
in November and we bought it in October. So it just told me there is no
silver lying around to be delivered against contract. And when you look at
the Comex inventory for length of dealer inventories they are something like
28 or 29 million ounces, I mean that is $1.2 billion. I mean that is nothing.
Any one of 500 institutions could buy it and there would be no Comex silver.
I mean the whole takedown of silver, the manipulation of silver that has been
suggested in lawsuits, I think, stands a good chance of proving to be the
case. The raid that took place on May 1st was a joke. We are
just in the process of analyzing it now and there was no way that speculators
and the long sides could maintain their position when you wake up on a Monday
morning and you are already down $6.00 an ounce which would have basically
would have gotten rid of all your margins already. And then they bang on four
subsequent margin rate increases. It was a perfectly orchestrated raid by the
people who were short but I think it indicates that there was a real physical
problem in the silver market. I expect that to manifest itself as we move
into the latter part of this year.
Chris Martenson: Yeah, I watched that
one in real time. I was up late that night on Sunday and I saw that huge
plunge and actually recovered a bit of that plunge. But the plunge started, I
think the only markets open at that point were maybe Hong Kong or maybe
Sydney. And they are tiny. So the raid started in the very thinly traded
Globex Market and to me it is kind of like the analogy would be the price of
beef plummets in Hawaii one night and the next morning, all of Oklahoma wakes
up and finds out that their beef is worth 20% less. It just did not make any
sense to me at all. Is that what you are seeing there?
Eric Sprott: Well, just imagine the
margin calls. You know you drop $5.00 or $6.00 bucks like that, I mean most
people against a $48.00 contract probably only had up $5.00 or $6.00 bucks of
collateral. So you have to double it overnight. And then they bang out the
four margin rate increases. By the time it was all over you are down $15.00
off the high. Just imagine the flow of money needed to maintain your
position. And of course, now we see the evidence of what happened. I think
the SLV lost 50 million physical ounces. The specs were forced to liquidate
and the commercials, who were short the whole time, were able to buy back a
lot of paper silver in the process and book profits. But it is such a classic
setup in the silver market, to force the speculators to cover. I mean yes,
they won that little battle but I certainly do not think they are going to
win the war.
Chris Martenson: And your view then is
that somehow this is, we have got the commercials, we have got the big banks,
I presume you mean the bullion banks in this case. The players, if you do not
want to name names that is fine. But your view is that they have some
outsized abilities to influence this market and let us call it what it is,
they manipulate the market in order to extract economic advantage for
themselves. Are they doing this simply because this is a bear raid strategy
they know how to pull off and it has been successful and they make money at
it? Or are they doing this to hold prices down, or is it both? What is your
view on this then?
Eric Sprott: Well I think Chris,
when you realize how much money these shorts were losing. I mean we had
silver rally from $18.00 to $50.00 or $49.50. I mean the losses would have
been monumental. They were being forced to deal with the short position. It
was a perfect night for a raid because as you mentioned, China was closed
that day, the UK was closed, nobody was really up when this decline took
place and I gather it took place on very, very few contracts. So it is a
typical tactic in the precious metals market. We have seen it all along in
gold. I mean I cannot tell you how many raids we have seen from the gold
price over the last eleven years but they occur with great regularity. But
ultimately they fail and again I refer to James Turk and he describes the
gold price as a measured retreat by the central banks and the bullion shorts.
They just know that there is a shortage of physical gold and I would like to
use analogy: imagine if in the world, everything was the same today save one
thing. Let us say the silver price was still $5.00. Imagine the amount of
money that is going into silver today and how much silver you would buy at
$5.00. You would be buying ten times more than you would have imagined. But
the supply was relatively the same so they have to let the price go up to
decrease the physicalness of the market. That the money wanting to go in, can
buy fewer and fewer ounces as the price goes up.
Chris Martenson: Well certainly, you
mentioned increased Chinese demand. Also, India an important source of
demand. And this is just economics 101: if you hold the price down, demand
will go up. And I am sensitive to the idea that central banks have long been
interested in the price of gold and politicians too. They like it to stay
relatively tame. They like inflation to stay relatively tame because a higher
raising, spiking signal from gold says something. And it says something that
I think casts dispersions on their policy decisions and other things. And we
know this from the London Gold Pool in ’69 and Ruben’s strong
dollar policy and all kinds of things that this has been a one of many things
that the banks look at. So I know they look at it and I am sure they do not
cry many tears when the price of gold is held in check but the flip side to that
is, that then we have more demand than we would otherwise have. And part of
that process then involves, I think, a hemorrhaging of the gold and silver
away from those places of low prices and towards the people who want to buy
it. Are you seeing it change patterns of flows in the overall global precious
metals market? I mean grossly speaking, is it leaking from west to east?
Eric Sprott: Well I don’t
think there is any doubt about it. As people assess the economic policies
throughout the world, they realize that fiat currency is just paper. The
demand for physical silver and gold is of course is strongest in India and
China. I think as you noted the interest in gold and silver in the developed
countries is not nearly the same as it is in the less developed countries. So
I think those trends are going to continue when the developed countries catch
on which might start happening pretty quickly here with the recent data we
have seen which basically shows that we are falling off a cliff. And one of
the things I challenge investors with these days is: if you do not know what
is going to happen on July 1, when QE2 ends, are we all just like a herd of
lemmings going over a cliff here? Because there better be a QE3 or you are
going to have some economic crisis. And of course, economic crisis are not
good for banks and my ultimate view of what happens to gold and silver is
that people decide to take their money out of the banks and there is only one
place to go. And we have seen this happen in various countries that run into
trouble. We hear about money flowing out of Greek banks and why
wouldn’t it? And the next one was the money will be flowing out of
Portuguese banks. And sooner or later, instead of just moving from bank A to
bank B, people might start moving it from bank A, B and C to precious metals.
Which I think is what ultimately will happen here and provide this huge
supernova for gold and silver.
Chris Martenson: I want to talk about what
this end game might look like. I have been expecting at some point there might
be a day when I wake up and there are two prices for silver. One that is set
at the COMEX and the other one which is what I actually have to pay to get
some. And the wider that spreads the greater the pressure on the overall
market. You have already hinted, you have said that you think that there is
not that much in the COMEX, the CFTC has been complicit in some way in
helping to preserve - the CFTC might actually be just trying to preserve the
amount of silver in the warehouses by going through their margin hikes and
all of that and supporting all of that. What is your view of how this
actually comes into fruition if we suddenly see this shortfall? Eastman Kodak
says “Hey, where is the silver? We want it, we have to stop our
industrial processes until we get it.” Tell us about that moment and
how that comes about.
Eric Sprott: Well first of all I
think COMEX is a joke and I think all the paper markets are a joke. As you
are probably aware, we trade a billion ounces of silver a day. A billion
ounces. The world produces 900 million a year. And you know, rather than us
saying well the buyers are speculators, what are the sellers thinking? He is
trading a billion ounces in the sell side, and there is all 28 million in the
COMEX there is obviously a shortage of silver. What is the guy selling it
thinking? He is the guy with the unlimited losses. At least the guy long
silver, he knows what his loss can be but the guy shorting silver? We have
already seen silver from a year ago go up by 150%, I mean just think of the
outside losses. So I do not really think that the COMEX and the LBMA are
serving much purpose in terms of supposedly being involved in the physical
market. They are not physical whatsoever. They are just paper markets. And on
a daily basis, at most, we probably have got about a million ounces of silver
everyday available for investment. Because most of it is used for industrial.
So here we have a million ounces available, we trade a billion ounces a day.
I mean it just, it is almost beyond belief. It is surreal in a way that it
would be that much trading. It is all paper. And I do not, I do not know how
we resolve what is obviously a physical shortage here. I mean there is not
much primary silver production, it is not a big part of all silver production.
And you see the kinds of moves we have where coin sales are up 30% and the
industrial demand is up 20% and demand for solar goes up 100% .I mean the
numbers are astounding in terms of growth of silver demand but the supply
goes up by 3% or 4% a year. So there is no way out of the physical imbalance
in my mind. Maybe we end up with two markets, one physical, and one paper. I
think the more likely thing is that COMEX probably defaults somewhere along
the line. If somebody just stood up and said “Fine, I will take the 28
and 29 million ounces” - it would be all over. So and that may happen
some day.
Chris Martenson: Well, you raise an
interesting point for me, which is why I actually prefer to own physical gold
and silver. I was a pretty active futures trader for a while but that was
just a game. I am convinced that when that event comes - and it will at some
point - that what they will do, the CFTC in this case and other rule setters,
is they will just change the rules. Like they did with the Hunt Brothers. Like
they always do, right? When the going gets tough, what they do is they just
change the rules and say “Oh were you long this contract? We are very
sorry, we’re doing a cash settlement at some arbitrary level.” I
think the warning shot across everybody’s bow should have been the
flash crash, May 10, 2009, what the NYSE did was arbitrarily write in and say
“Oh, any trades that happened below this level it’s as if they
did not happen. But up to this level, they happened.” And what I would love
to be able to do in this case is peek into the books and find out who really
benefitted from having the floor of the broken trades be set at that level.
And I will be shocked if it does not turn out that it is the most
well-connected players who ended up at the best advantage off of that. So my
view, and this is perhaps cynical, is that the rules get changed rather
frequently and this erodes the most fundamental underpinnings of a market,
which is that it needs to be free and fair. As soon as you have arbitrariness
in there which clearly - it is not arbitrary, because arbitrary sounds random
- as soon as you have rule-changing that clearly benefits one set of players
over another on a consistent basis, it’s only a matter of time before
people lose faith, refuse to participate, and do what I did which is just
default into the physical market which was a set of decisions I made a while
ago.
Eric Sprott: Sure, well I think
that just the fact that the CFTC did what they did in the Hunt Brothers
situation, where you could only liquidate which is a bit of a joke. And even
its most recent example, where you just pile on these margin rate increases
as it is working for the shorters. And the fact that they have had this CFTC
investigation into the silver manipulation of ’08 with no results, not
withstanding Bart Chilton coming out and saying it seems obvious there was
some manipulation going on. So the CFTC I think has abandoned their
principles here.
Chris Martenson: Yeah, well certainly, there
is some complicity in there. And where there is smoke there is fire. It is
not a clean story at this point. That much is absolutely clear. So what I
would like to do now is ask another important question for people I think you
have got some insight into here, for sure, is gold versus silver. I have
always maintained a 2/3 to 1/3 gold to silver ratio on a value basis as sort
of my general rule of thumb. And I invest in them for different reasons. Gold
for me is a monetary asset. I invest in it because there is always the option
value that gold will be remonetized on the international scale. Pick a number
for what it might be worth under that scenario. Silver to me is still
primarily an industrial metal and one without useful substitutes in many
critical applications. So I split those metals and do not lump them both as
precious in the sense that they have the same characteristics. What is your
view there?
Eric Sprott: Well, my view is this.
That I think silver should trade something like 16 to 1 ratio to gold. If the
gold price was $1,600.00, silver should be $100.00. It has always
historically been the rate. If gold was made a currency, which I think it
will be, I think the market has already made it a reserve currency, the
general market. You still need something for exchange that is workable. In
other words, you can’t be exchanging one tenth of an ounce of gold for
$150.00 bucks, I mean, try to get it down to $10.00 bucks. I mean it is
impossible because whatever you have in your hand would be so small it would
be unrecognizable. And therefore I think that when that day comes, silver
would also be included as a currency. And we are sitting here with
theoretically a billion ounces of silver available, which today is only worth
$36 billion dollars. You cannot have something in the currency that is only
worth $36 billion dollars because it serves no purpose. There is just not
enough of it around. So I happen to be of the school of thought that silver
should out perform gold and we came of that view strongly in the middle of
last year, just about this time. And it has sort of demonstrated that
certainly in the last twelve months. And I think that that will continue. So
I tend to favor silver over gold these days.
Chris Martenson: Right, just on a price
appreciation and a ratio basis, we’re agreed and also the fundamental
supply-demand equation there is also I assume driving that decision at some
point on that point of view.
Eric Sprott: It is
Chris Martenson: So here we are and it
is 2011, where do you see - if you are willing to do this - where do you see
gold going to? Pick a number, by 2015 – 2020. I mean where do you
see it ultimately getting to? What I am really trying to back around into in
this question is understanding when do we know it is time to sell? Like there
is always a time to be long and then there is a time to exit. What does that
look like for you?
Eric Sprott: First of all you
can’t tell where it is going to go because you have to assess events
that will happen in the future that have not happened yet. So for example, if
we both agreed there is going to be a QE3? Wow, no doubt it quickly goes to
$2,000.00. If it is QE4, 5 and 6, it is almost unlimited. So it is hard to
identify a price. I just think it is for sure going higher, depending on the
actions of the government. But that rate of escalation may accelerate here.
When people ask me when it is over, I sort of look at three things: one would
be if you saw some kind of exponential move and you just thought that the gold
and silver market will become maniacal and you might just say okay fine, it
is over, that is number one. Number two would be if governments around the
world and central banks of the world started acting responsibly, then they
are taking away momentum out of the gold and silver markets. I do not see
that happening however. And of course, the third thing, which is kind of
obvious, is if they make gold and silver reserve currencies, well you do not
need to own them anymore, depending on the circumstances at the time. So
those are the three things I kind of look to. The most obvious would be
governments and central banks getting responsible. And I just see no signs of
that whatsoever. In fact, I almost think that their irresponsibility is
increasing as time going on here.
Chris Martenson: I completely agree. I have
several of the same signposts and I have one other one and which is keeping
my eye carefully on the role of the dollar as the world’s reserve
currency. If that starts to slip in earnest, that is where I pile a lot of
dollars into things, gold and silver being two very obvious choices for me at
that moment. So I really need to thank you for your time here. And I follow
your writings very closely. I love your missives; they are always packed with
information. If people want to follow you, or find out more about the funds
you offer and operate, how do they do that?
Eric Sprott: Well, they can go to
Sprott.com and all the things that we write on the various markets and as you
are aware, we have been focusing in on precious metals, particularly silver
lately. And we have some pretty interesting analysis of the silver market. We
also have given many, many commentaries on the economic outlook over the last
fifteen-odd years and most of those articles have been reasonably prescient
in predicting most of the things that have happened. So if they go to
Sprott.com, all the information is available. If they are interested in the
purchase of gold and silver Maple Leafs we have a little web site called
Sprott Money where we are involved in that market.
Chris Martenson: Oh fantastic. Well
thank you so much for your time today. I hope we can do this again, and best
of luck this year.
Eric Sprott: Thank you very much
Chris, all the best to you.
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