Difference of Opinion

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Published : January 25th, 2012
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Category : Crisis Watch

 

 

 

 

Looks like some of the powers-that-be have not had their regular rations of economic Kool-Aid:


"Global Bosses Are Gloomy About the Economic Future" (BBC News)


Companies around the world are getting gloomier about the economic future again, according to an annual survey of global chief executives.


Nearly half of bosses interviewed by accounting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers are forecasting that the global economy will decline this year.


The number of business leaders that are "very confident" their firms will grow has also fallen, from 48% to 40%.


...


The confidence of chief executives "is decidedly down as they deal with the aftershocks to the recession," said Dennis Nally, chairman of PwC International. "The optimism that had been building cautiously since 2008 has begun to recede."


"IMF Cuts Growth Forecast; Sees Recession" (Bloomberg)


The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for global growth and warned that the European debt crisis threatens to derail the world economy.


“The epicenter of the danger is Europe but the rest of the world is increasingly affected,” Olivier Blanchard, the fund’s chief economist, said today at a news conference in Washington. “There’s an even greater danger, namely that the European crisis intensifies. In this case the world could be plunged into another recession.”


The fund, in an update of its World Economic Outlook report, lowered its estimate for global growth this year to 3.3 percent from a September forecast of 4 percent. The expansion next year will be 3.9 percent, down from 4.5 percent. The euro area may enter a “mild recession” in 2012 as it shrinks 0.5 percent. The U.S. outlook was unchanged at 1.8 percent growth.


Or perhaps they've simply started paying attention to Financial Armageddon?


Still, there are those who see things differently, including the so-called smart money:


"Goldman’s O’Neill Sees Investors Adopting His Bullish US Stance" (CNBC)


Goldman Sachs’ Jim O’Neill, famous for coining the term ‘BRIC’ to describe the major emerging markets, is bullish on the U.S. economy and, perhaps more importantly, senses more of his colleagues shifting their mood to his more positive tone.


“I spent most of this past week in New York, and to my slight surprise, there appears to be some shift in the mood about the state of life,” wrote O’Neill in his ‘Viewpoints’ letter to clients. “Whether this is because it is the start of the year, asset prices have been perkier or there is some recognition that the U.S. economy and other parts of the world are not as bleak as the second half of 2010 is not so clear. It was certainly quite nice to hear and, in my judgement, is more reflective of what is going on.”


Hmmm, I wonder who's right?


Michael J. Panzner 


 

 




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Michael J. Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes, published by Kaplan Publishing.
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I have been a gold investor for a number of years, with 90% of my portfolio in gold. I started as an amateur and hopefully gained much additional knowledge. I recently sold all of my gold holdings, as I look for the EURO to collapse, driving gold down to levels approaching $100/ounce. That is when we will reinvest and stay invested as the dollar will follow the EURO in being reevaluated to much lower levels...as always...a matter of timing. February and March are the pivot months.
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An article of this kind is not much of help, conscerning private investment in gold.

I think to be sensible and rational suffice.
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I have been a gold investor for a number of years, with 90% of my portfolio in gold. I started as an amateur and hopefully gained much additional knowledge. I recently sold all of my gold holdings, as I look for the EURO to collapse, driving gold down  Read more
Montana rancher - 1/26/2012 at 5:19 PM GMT
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