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As we have
moved toward the election I have continued to hear talk that one candidate
would be better for the market than the other. I have also heard that the
current administration is responsible for the market advance since 2009. To
say this and/or that this administration would therefore be good for the
future of the market is like saying that we have had more sunny days since
2009 and that if the current administration is reelected then we will have
more sunny days over the next 4 years.
Fact is, it does not matter. It is the anticipation and the
unknown that concerns the market. Once the election is behind us, the market
is going to play out in accordance with the technical setup that continues to
develop and evolve. At present, that setup consists of a Dow theory primary
bearish trend change that occurred in August 2011. It also consists of a Dow
theory non-confirmation that began forming back in February. Also, in May
both the Industrials and the Transports again closed below their previous
secondary low points, which triggered yet another bearish primary trend
change. In doing so, this served to reconfirm the bearish primary trend
change from August 2011. Since then, the Industrials have moved to
post-October 2011 highs while the non-confirmation with the Transports has
continued to grow. It seems that so few are aware or understand the
seriousness of these ongoing developments. Unless the outcome of the election
can somehow mend this technical erosion, which based on the current evidence
is not looking likely, then once the election is behind us, this
"stealth setup" will continue to evolve. Then, once the structural
DNA Markers that have been seen at every major top since 1896 are confirmed,
the die will then be cast and the outcome of the election is not going to
matter as the ongoing technical setup will then play out.
My basic
point here is that the general public seems to believe that we can elect some
politician to office and that just because he becomes the President of the
United States he somehow has the ability to "fix" everything
including the economy and stock market. I'm telling you, he can't. In fact,
it is because of the politicians and their belief that they can
"fix" things that got us here in the first place. To think that
another administration or even the same administration can somehow
"fix" this mess is a fairytale. According to our Dow theory
founding fathers, Dow theory is used as a "barometer of economic
conditions." That said, the Dow theory developments have been and
continue to warn of an economic storm. In fact, it tells us that the economic
storm never really passed. Rather, it's more like we have perhaps just been
in the eye of the storm and in light of the current technical landscape round
two is on the horizon. Again, once the election is behind us and the DNA
Markers appear, the election will become old news and who's
President is not going to matter as the technical forces will exert
themselves.
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