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| RATIOS & INDEXES |
| Gold / Silver | 63.28 |
| Gold / Oil | 13.79 |
| Dowjones / Gold | 11.22 |
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 | Opinions and Analysis |  |
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 | Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
 Fed Keeps Low-Rate Policy Intact; Treasury Yields Spike Anyway; Hissy Fit Over Fluff |
| Curve Watchers Anonymous has a close eye on treasury yields in the wake of essentially no news from Bernanke as to when the Fed might actually begin hiking rates.
A mere hint the Fed might slow its QE program was enough to send treasury yields and the US dollar higher and stocks lower.
Yield Curve 2013-06-19
click on chart for sharper image
Curve Watchers Anonymous notes the yield on the 10-year note is up 13 basis points from yesterday, and the 5-year note is up 17 basis points from yestThursday, June 20, 2013 |
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 | Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| How’s this for an Image? |
| It should be an interesting day today as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke weighs in on the health of the U.S. economy, the falling inflation rate, nascent asset bubbles, and increasingly volatile financial markets, all of which are influenced to varying degrees by central bank actions, both in the U.S. and abroad. From this Wall Street Journal story yesterday comes the image below depicting the worst case scenario for some investors.
We are off to Yellowstone for the day and, as such, won’Wednesday, June 19, 2013 |
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 | Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan |
| Real Life Spy Drama On U.S. Bound Plane: “I’m Dead Already, They’re Gonna Kill Me” *VIDE |
| (Passenger Daniel Perry is escorted off of a United Flight originating in Hong Kong.
Is he a national intelligence asset?)
To add further drama and confusion to the story of Edward Snowden, NSA Spying and Central Intelligence Agency involvement, a passenger on a U.S. bound flight out of Hong Kong Monday claimed that intelligence agents had detained him, were going to kidnap him, take him to a safe house, and that they planned to kill him because of his knowledge about the recently released leaksWednesday, June 19, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Epic Glut of Graduates Depresses Wages; Fake Job Offers Taint Hiring Statistics |
| In response to Pettis on China, Europe, Japan: Bad News for Those Looking for Growth reader "BC" passed on a series of articles about jobs and wages, and matching up graduates with the skills companies seek.
The articles are all in regards to China. Change the names and faces, and the stories sound to me like things you could easily read here.
The problems are universal: too many graduates, trained in fields where there are no jobs or few openings.
Job Prospects for China's Grads Bleak
BusTuesday, June 18, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| How They Do It in Illinois |
| From this item at the Illinois Policy Institute comes the sobering graphic below depicting how one state has fared over the last year vis-a-vis job creation and public assistance.
According to this story at the Chicago Sun Times, the Illinois economy saw 1.9 percent real growth in gross domestic product last year.
Some back-of-the-napkin calculations based on the data here reveals that food stamps had about as much to do with that growth as did new jobs.
/* Tuesday, June 18, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| On Health Care and Health Insurance |
| It’s been an interesting year for me regarding my health and medical insurance as routine hernia surgery last month has given me some first hand experience in how the health care industry works (see Bitter Bill: Why Medical Bills Are Killing Us) and, just last week, we got word that our health insurance premiums will soon be going up by almost a third.
On the first subject, I have to say that, having had similar surgery about eight years ago, the medical industry continues to progress in leaps aMonday, June 17, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| New Mish iPhone, iPad, Android App Now Available |
| A new Mish iOS app for iPhone and iPad devices is now available on the App Store, and a new version of the Android app (compatible with phones and tablets), is now available on the Google Play store.
The original iPhone app is still available in the App Store so you may have to scroll to find the correct one, or you can download it from iOS app link above.
Here is the symbol you are looking for:
There is no text on the icon for this app. The previous app had the word "Mish" on it.
If youMonday, June 17, 2013 |
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 | Chris Powell - GATA |
| Bitcoin is 'real currency,' CFTC's Chilton tells Yahoo's 'Daily Ticker' |
| Dear Friend of GATA and gold:
U.S. commodity trading regulator Bart Chilton today tells Lauren Lyster of Yahoo's "Daily Ticker" that bitcoin is "real currency" and so has to be taken seriously by the government and regulated if it involves futures contracts or the purchase of contraband. Chilton, a member of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission, adds that new regulations have given the public a little more protection against getting cheated by operations like MF Global but admits that mMonday, June 17, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Celebrating Life: I Got Married on Friday |
| As most of you know, I lost my wife Joanne on May 16 last year to ALS, Lou Gehrig's disease. We were happily married for 27 years.
Joanne's three closest friends, Kathy, Marybeth, and Debbie all wanted me to move on, have fun, meet someone and enjoy life.
But where does one who is 59 years old find someone?
The bar scene may work for someone 21 to 35. For someone 59, the bar scene is a near-certain strikeout. There are numerous online services but most of the horror stories speak for themselMonday, June 17, 2013 |
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| Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan |
| Detroit Goes Under: “There Is No Way Out But Collapse” |
| Though most Americans go through their day thinking everything is now returning to normal, the fact of the matter is the situation is anything but stable.
With crime rates skyrocketing, home prices dropping to under $500 for a house, and the local government out of solutions, the city of Detroit is the latest to join the likes of Stockton, California, having just defaulted on its loans from creditors.
Despite promises to the contrary, it should come as no surprise that the city is unable to meetMonday, June 17, 2013 |
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 | Rick Ackerman |
| Bear-Market Odds |
| Are U.S. stocks in a bear market? Although we don’t pretend to have a crystal ball, the chart below could soon give us enough information to quote odds on it. From a technical standpoint, using our proprietary method of analysis, the key feature is the 14953 low made last week. Thursday’s swoon to that number overshot an important “Hidden Pivot” correction target at 14962 (aka ‘p’) by a hair – i.e., nine points, or 0.10 percent. That’s not enough to regard the support as having been violated,Monday, June 17, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Do You Trust Banks? Country by County Comparison |
| Here is an interesting Gallup poll that came my way today from a friend "BC". The poll was taken last month. It shows European Countries Lead World in Distrust of Banks.
Thirteen percent of Greeks said they had confidence in their country's banks or financial institutions in 2012, leading the nearly all-European list of countries where trust in financial institutions was among the worst in the world last year. Seven European Union countries had trust levels lower than 30%, far below the medianMonday, June 17, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Germany Election Update: AfD Soars in Online Poll; Is Merkel Toast? |
| Reader Bernd from Germany (not Bernd Lucke, AfD anti-euro party leader) has emailed me several times since Friday about polls conducted by the German tabloid Bild.
Emphasis must be placed on the the word "tabloid" because intellectuals and academics do not tend to read the paper, nor even acknowledge its existence.
Nonetheless, Bild is the number one readership paper in Germany, by far, with about 20 million readers daily. And a poll is a poll, not a slanted news article.
The Bild is not a suSunday, June 16, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Sentiment Slips, Still Near Recovery High |
| After reaching a recovery high last month, the Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index retreated in the first of two readings for June, falling from 84.5 to 82.7, due to a large decline in how Americans see their present situation.
While the current conditions index fell from 98.0 to 92.1, the expectations index edged higher, from 75.8 to 76.7, near the recovery high seen last year.
Not surprisingly, lower-income households were less positive about the economy than other groupFriday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Don't Worry, Trend Towards Hiring Temps is Only Temporary (And Not at All Related to Obamacare) |
| Wal-Mart has a new strategy of hiring temporary workers, everyday (seemingly to match everyday low pricing). Spokesman David Tovar says that the move is not related Obamacare, even though it could take a year or more for temporary workers to receive health care
benefits.
Let's dig deeper into Wal-Mart's Everyday Hiring Strategy to see if management claims pass the sniff test.
A Reuters survey of 52 stores run by the largest U.S. private employer in the past month, including one in every U.S.Friday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Friday Morning Links |
| MUST READS
Hilsen-rescue – Reformed Broker
Why the Fed Will Try to Calm Market Nerves – CNBC
Fed Likely to Push Back on Expectations of Rate Increase – WSJ
Bernanke’s Tapering Talk Backfires Amid Bond Yield Surge – Bloomberg
The Fed won’t taper as long as inflation is low – MarketWatch
Fed’s Bond-Buying Wild Card: Inflation Expectations – WSJ
Budget Deficit in U.S. Widened as Spending Increases 10% – Bloomberg
The Japanese girlband whose skirts get shorter when the Nikkei rises – Telegraph
Is anFriday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| More on U.S. Retail Sales |
| Despite the better-than-expected results for retail sales as reported here yesterday, some analysts expressed concern about the underlying trend and the reliance on incentives and low financing rates that goosed auto sales at a time when consumers confidence is surging.
The former concern is shown below via the rolling six-month average monthly increase that, for the last three months, has been sub-par as compared to the last 14 years.
As for the 1.8 percent surge in auto sales last month, EdmuFriday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Rick Ackerman |
| Bears Shouldn’t Despair |
| The chart below was posted in the chat room yesterday by a Rick’s Picks subscriber evidently at the point of despair over the stock market’s inability to muster a sell-off worthy of the name. The three-day downtrend reversed by yesterday’s swoon is a case in point. This was the first time this year that the Dow average had fallen for three consecutive sessions. And yet, the drop from high to low was a mere 250 points — barely enough to placate beleaguered permabears, let alone satisfy them. AnFriday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Retail Sales Rise, U.S. Consumer Indefatigable |
| The Commerce Department reported that retail sales in the U.S. rose more than expected last month, up 0.6 percent in May after a gain of 0.1 percent in April. Automobile sales were particularly strong, however, other data was mixed.
This marked the best showing for the American consumer in three months as auto sales jumped 1.8 percent after a gain of 0.7 percent the month prior. Excluding autos, sales rose 0.3 percent and excluding both autos and gasoline, the same 0.3 percent increase was sFriday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Visualizing Gold Demand In China |
| This report in China Daily the other day that included the stunning photos shown below offers another example of the sharp contrast between the “physical” gold market in Asia and the “paper” gold market here in the U.S.
There appear to have been hundreds of people lined up outside of a gold store in Jinan City in East China’s Shandong province on Tuesday, all there to buy gold at a discount.
Customers were limited to 15 minutes inside the store to make their purchases, what must have seemFriday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Year-Over-Year Gasoline Prices on the Rise |
| Last week, retail gasoline prices were higher than a year ago for the first time since February and, with another penny increase to $3.66 per gallon as reported by the Energy Department the other day, they are now up 8 cents (or over 2 percent) on a year over year basis.
Given that prices continued to decline at this time last year as shown below, there will be some positive inputs to the inflation calculation in the months ahead.
How big an impact this will have remains to be seen since, like Friday, June 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| IRS Refunds $4 Billion Child Tax Credits Per Year to Illegal Immigrants Whose Kids Do Not Live in US |
| Here's an interesting video that came my way yesterday from a close friend. The video highlights a news investigation by Channel 13, WTHR in Indianapolis, regarding fraudulent refunds of taxpayer money to illegal immigrants living in the US. The refunds are based on child tax credits, when the kids live in Mexico or elsewhere.
Link if video does not play: Another Massive Tax Loophole!
Typically videos like this are not remotely true, but this one is according to FactCheck.
Q: Does the IRS Thursday, June 13, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Thursday Morning Links |
| MUST READS
Nikkei tumbles 6% on central bank fears – CNN/Money
Is It Now “Game Over” for Japanese Equities? – CNBC
Yen Surges to 2-Month High on Japan Flow Data – Bloomberg
U.S. dollar keeps falling against major currencies – xinhuanet
World Bank cuts growth outlook as world enters ‘new normal’ – Reuters
Bond bubble threatens financial system, Bank of England director warns – Guardian
End of Cheap Money: Can the World Handle Higher Interest Rates? – Spiegel
“More than $2.5 trillion lost since BeThursday, June 13, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| California, Illinois on Brink of Pension Crisis; New Actuarial Rules Will Force States to Admit Prob |
| Many states, especially California and Illinois, have had severe pension underfunding problems for many years.
However, new actuarial pension rules will finally force states to admit the problem. Thus, it should not be surprising that talk of "technical bankruptcy" and “service insolvency” is growing.
Here are some pertinent ideas from California on the Brink: Pension Crisis About to Get Worse
Moody’s new credit standards for public pensions would nearly double the unfunded liabilities for sThursday, June 13, 2013 |
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| Rick Ackerman |
| The Economic Recovery’s ‘Elephant in the Room’ |
| Well, that’s two straight Tuesdays that U.S. stocks have fallen. Has Wall Street finally noticed that the real estate sector – the only big winner in American’s sham “recovery” besides the stock market itself – is starting to deteriorate? Hard to say, although lately we’ve had our doubts that yield-crazed U.S. investors would lose a beat even if an epidemic were to wipe out half of the world’s population. They barely flinched a couple of weeks ago when Japan’s stock market was freefalling. And Thursday, June 13, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Southern California Home Prices Soar |
| It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with real estate prices in the months ahead as rising interest rates appear to have been the proximate cause of a buying stampede in many parts of the country that has resulted in prices moving sharply higher. Word came yesterday that Southern California home prices (where we lived for many years, up until 2007) are on a tear, up 25 percent from a year ago according to this report from Dataquick.
Those are some pretty hefty year-over-year increaseThursday, June 13, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| More Disturbing Data on Seniors in Debt |
| The latest news about the high cost of living in retirement (and the resulting dwindling pile of inheritance money for retiring baby boomers) serves as a timely reminder that, like the situation with student loans in the U.S., personal finances are changing in ways that few would have predicted a decade or two ago.
This Fiscal Times story details the latest developments in the ongoing saga of seniors in debt and they are none-too-pretty, not only for seniors but for those expecting an inheritancWednesday, June 12, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Fierce Selloff in Emerging Market Currencies; India Intervenes to Stop Plunge in Rupee; Brazil Steps |
| I's hard not to laugh at the irony of recent central bank currency actions.
After complaining for years about the strength of the Real, the Brazilian central bank stepped up intervention actions hoping to stop a plunge in the currency.
Turkey now attempts to attract capital after taking measures for the past four years to stop the flow of money into the country.
In India, the central bank seeks to stop a plunge in the Rupee which is at a record low of record low 58.95 to the dollar.
The WallWednesday, June 12, 2013 |
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| Tim Iacono - Iacono Research |
| Wednesday Morning Links |
| MUST READS
Traders Said to Rig Currency Rates – Bloomberg
Turkey’s central bank acts to stabilize lira – MarketWatch
India’s central bank intervenes to stem rupee fall – CNA
Sales of Orwell’s ‘1984′ spike after NSA leak – CNN/Money
Greece First Developed Market Cut to Emerging at MSCI – Bloomberg
Analysis: Asia’s ticking time bonds; time to cut and run? – Reuters
Can Bernanke Avoid a Meltdown in the Bond Market? – Bloomberg
Just How Frightened Are Bond Investors? – Barron’s
Reminder That Debt CeWednesday, June 12, 2013 |
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