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| RATIOS & INDEXES |
| Gold / Silver | 60.92 |
| Gold / Oil | 14.29 |
| Dowjones / Gold | 11.27 |
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 | Opinions and Analysis |  |
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 | Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Read Between the Lines: IMF Admits Spain is Bankrupt; Get Your Money Out While You Can |
| It should be obvious to anyone reading this blog that Spain is in an economic depression as well as bankrupt. It is equally obviously that eurozone imbalances and a flawed treaty are to blame.
Finding mainstream organizations willing to admit Spain is bankrupt is another matter. Yet today, Jeremey Warner writing for The Telegraph says just that.
Warner says Spain is officially insolvent: get your money out while you still can
I'd not noticed this until someone drew my attention to it, but Saturday, May 11, 2013 |
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 | Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan |
The Ultimate Doomsday Provision: “Designed For Those Exceptionally Rare Circumstances Wh  |
| Though the following 2002 court case ended with the liberal Ninth Circuit ruling that, “the Second Amendment to the United States Constitution does not guarantee individuals the right to bear arms,” at least one judge stood in dissent.
In his dissent, Judge Alex Kozinski argued with the very reasoning our founding fathers used to include the right to bear arms in the U.S. Constitution to begin with.
It may be a decade since the Ninth Circuit attempted to rewrite our fundamental law of the land (Tuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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 | Charleston Voice |
| Hidden History Ancient High Technology - a Beetlejuice Headspinner |
| The introductory 5 min. dialogue commentary is quite sluggish in its format, but if you make it to the 15 min. marker you'll be hooked to the end. More grist for your discerning mind.
How did they do it?
There's a huge difference between when you read in a book and see on TV and what you can see with your own eyes.
For more Hidden History videos, click hereTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Expect a Spike in Long-Term Japanese Interest Rates; Currency Crisis Just Around the Corner |
| I expect a spike sometime in the near future in long-term Japanese interest rates. People have been saying this for years, but the time may finally be at hand.
The following headline is what tipped me off: BOJ chief expects no spike in long-term Japan interest rates.
Japanese long-term interest rates should not shoot higher as a result of money flowing out of government bonds, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said on Saturday.
Kuroda added, however, that it would be natural for long-teSaturday, May 11, 2013 |
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 | Jesse - Le Café Américain |
| The Bullish Case For Stocks (and a Commensurate 'Repricing of Risks' Caused By Fed Intervention) |
| Here is the 'bullish case for stocks' from Ralph Dillon at Global Financial Data, in quotes below. The chart is also from their site.
Calculating the Equity Risk Premium Tutorial is here.
Those of us who stood by and watched the Fed blow asset bubbles in financial paper and the housing market from 2003 to 2007, after the bubble in tech stocks from 1998 to 2001, are understandably appalled that the Fed has seen fit to follow essentially the same game plan again, matched by a lack of reform inTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
 EU Emissions Trading in Tatters (As It Should Be) |
| The Wall Street Journal reports Emissions trading in Europe in Tatters.
The European Union's flagship program to fight global warming—a regional carbon-emissions trading system—suffered a major blow Tuesday when legislators rejected a proposal aimed at saving the market from collapse.
After the European Parliament's rejection, spooked investors drove the already depressed price of carbon emission permits down by nearly half. Benchmark electricity prices also fell. Europe's Emissions Trading SThursday, May 16, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Paul Krugman "Was" Right |
| Before discussing Paul Krugman and how right he was, let's first take a look at the Spiegel Online report EU To Impose Tariffs on Chinese Solar Panels.
Back in 2008, the German solar manufacturing industry was riding the crest of a wave of growth fuelled by generous subsidies and high demand. That year, the darling of the German solar industry, SolarWorld, logged a 31 percent annual increase in revenue for a total of €900 million ($1.18 billion) and expanded its operations by opening North AmeMonday, May 13, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Protests in Italy Against New Coalition; How Long Will Coalition Last? |
| The new coalition government in Italy is off to such a rocky start, it's hard to say there ever was a honeymoon.
People want more jobs. Instead, the price for a coalition by former Prime Minister Mario Silvio Berlusconi was a rollback in property taxes.
Here is the result: Thousands rally in Rome against cuts.
Thousands of protesters, led by trade unionists, have rallied in the Italian capital Rome against the policies of the new coalition government. Wielding red flags and placards, they uSaturday, May 18, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Germany France Feud Erupts Again; German Central Bank Head Blasts France |
| The simmering stew between Germany and France boiled over again this week as German Central Bank Head Blasts France.
France needs more time to get its budget deficit under control. That much was made clear last Friday when the European Commission announced it was granting Paris until 2015 to bring its budget deficit below the maximum 3 percent of gross domestic product allowed by European Union rules ensuring the stability of the euro.
But on Wednesday evening, Jens Weidmann, the president ofSaturday, May 11, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Poll Shows 46% in UK Want to Exit EU, 30% Want to Stay In |
| By a wide margin, but not quite a majority (yet), Let's quit EU say 46 per cent of voters in poll.
Asked the exact question Conservatives want to put the public in the 2017 referendum – “Do you think that the UK should remain a member of the EU” – 46 per cent opt to come out, a higher figure than in other recent surveys.
Just 30 per cent say they want to remain.
In a further boost for the eurosceptic cause, 44 per cent want an “in/out” referendum immediately, although 29 per cent are preparedSaturday, May 18, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Brussels Puts Spain Under Surveillance; Brussels Denies Putting Spain Under Surveillance |
| Here is an amusing set of back-to-back headlines regarding Spain.
Via Mish-modified Google translate from La Vanguardia Brussels Puts Spain Under Surveillance for Economic Imbalances
Spain will be placed under European supervision and its political leeway in deciding what reforms the economy agree will be reduced.
European monitoring will take place in the labor market and a review of the pension system and some economic reforms from now must be agreed with Brussels. Spain gets "two extra yeThursday, May 16, 2013 |
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| Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan |
| Forget Gold: Only Food, Tools and Resourcefulness Will Matter In a Mad Max Scenario |
| When we talk about Mad Max scenarios, we are talking about events where the world as we know it no longer exists. No banks, no credit cards, no grocery stores, no gas stations, and a landscape devoid of law & order.
It’s an outlier to be sure, but one that has been experienced by millions of people throughout history.
Worst case scenarios do happen. And when they do, the activities associated with the regular flow of commerce as we understand them today cease completely.
Historically, this has hWednesday, May 08, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Breakout in Japanese 10-Year Bond Yield |
| Curve Watchers Anonymous has its eye on global interest rates. For example, please consider this chart of 10-Year Japanese bonds.
click on chart for sharper image
Chart courtesy of Steen Jakobsen, chief economist at Saxo Bank in Denmark.
I have been paying close attention to Japanese yields in light of this statement by the Bank of Japan chief: "I do not expect a sudden spike in long-term bond yields."
I commented on the statement on Saturday in Expect a Spike in Long-Term Japanese InteresWednesday, May 15, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Triple Dip Recession in France; It's Not the Weather |
| France slipped into its third recession in four years as Germany barely went into positive territory, underperforming general expectations.
The Financial Times reports France contracts in 1st quarter as Germany returns to growth
French GDP shrank by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter, the same rate of decline as the final three months of 2012, according to Insee, the national statistics office. Investment, measured by gross fixed capital formation, remained weak, falling a further 0.9 per centWednesday, May 15, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| How Clueless Are Manufacturing Future Expectations? |
| Month in and month out I see unwarranted optimism in Europe and in the US.
For example, on Thursday I stated "Philly Fed Slips Into Contraction (Again); Current Conditions Recessionary, Future Expectations Far Too Optimistic".
Here is the chart I posted:
That chart got me to wondering "just how wrong are future expectations historically?" The data is available, all one has to do is chart it.
I asked Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives if he could produce a chart of future expectations offseFriday, May 17, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Social Mood Darkens in Europe, Especially France, as Eurozone Economy in Freefall |
| A PEW study on European Attitudes shows social mood is darkening in the Eurozone, but especially in France.
The 78 page study "The New Sick Man of Europe: The European Union" is worth a look in entirety, but let's turn the spotlight on France.
France in Free Fall
The euro crisis first undermined France’s economy, and now there is strong evidence that it has severely eroded French public attitudes toward the economy, the European project and the country’s domestic leadership. Moreover, FranceTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Philly Fed Slips Into Contraction (Again); Current Conditions Recessionary, Future Expectations Far |
| The Philly Fed Business Outlook Survey shows regional activity weakened with current indicators negative. The Six-Month Outlook brightened in what I believe is rampant over-optimism.
"The current activity index has shown no pattern of sustained growth over the past seven months, generally alternating between positive and negative readings."
Note the negative slope of current conditions and future expectations. Current conditions are in recession territory.
Philly Fed at a Glance
BusiThursday, May 16, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| German Finance Minister Throws Cold Water on Single Bank Resolution Agency; For How Long? |
| Germany's Finance minister, Wolfgang Schäuble, has an uncanny ability to tread a very narrow line on formation of an EU banking union. He frequently crosses over the line in both directions but never very far, and never for long.
Every time he gives an inch to solidarity, he quickly takes it back, and vice versa. And here we go again.
Weeks before the European Commission is due to present its plan for a single bank resolution agency and rescue fund, Schäuble threw the plans in doubt with a waSunday, May 12, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| German Export Machine Hits Skids; Imbalances Intensify: Exports Drop 4.2% YoY, Imports Drop 6.9% YoY |
| Eurozone imbalances continue to grow even as German exports slump. Why? German imports slumped even more, and the German current account surplus grew.
Via Mish-Modified Google Translate from Les Echos, please consider Germany's Export Machine Slumps in March.
The German trade surplus grew in March for the third consecutive month in raw data (to € 18.8 billion after € 16.8 billion in February) detailed figures released Friday, yet the report shows much weakness.
First, calculated seasonally Sunday, May 12, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| UKIP's Godfrey Bloom Blasts Fractional Reserve Lending as Fraud; Says Central Bankers Should be Trie |
| Here are a pair of interesting You-Tube videos on fractional reserve lending sent by reader Magnus who lives in Sweden.
Godfrey Bloom Blasts Fractional Reserve Lending as Fraud
"The problem that we have is a flawed banking system, a fractional reserve banking system where bankers can lend money they don't have. If you go back in time in the United States to the 1850s, that was a capital offense. You could hang for that."
Link if video does not play: Money-Printing Scam - Godfrey Bloom MEPTuesday, May 07, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| In Rare Praise of Teachers |
| I do not frequently stand with teachers. It's not that I have anything against teachers. I don't. Teaching is an honorable profession.
Those who understand my stance, know full well my problems sit with teachers' unions, administrators, and union work rules.
Far too often I hear requests for tax increases allegedly "for the kids" when really the tax increases are for the teachers and administrators, not the kids.
Something Different
Today, I want to report something different. I want to peoWednesday, May 15, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Will Shinzo Abe Succeed with Constitutional Changes to Militarize Japan and Further Destroy the Yen? |
| As noted previously Shinzo Abe Seeks Constitutional Changes for a More Militaristic, Authoritarian Japanese Society. Today's question is: Will Abe Succeed?
The answer boils down to election math. Japan News shows 63 and 100 are crucial figures in upper house election.
click on chart for sharper image
Resolving the problems of the divided Diet and revising the Constitution depend on two key numbers--63 and 100.
The House of Councillors election this summer will determine whether the rulingTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Cameron Faces Cabinet Crisis of His Own Making; Purposely Self-Inflicted Wounds |
| Over the weekend, the UK Secretary of Defence and the Education Minister caused a stir when they publicly stated on Sunday they would vote to leave the European Union if a referendum were to be held now.
Cabinet Crisis Erupts
The Guardian reports David Cameron faces EU cabinet crisis as ministers break ranks.
David Cameron is struggling to maintain Tory discipline over Europe after cabinet loyalists Michael Gove and Philip Hammond said on Sunday they would vote to leave the European Union Monday, May 13, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Obamacare Premiums 47% Higher But Deductibles 27% Lower Than Grandfathered Health Plans; Obamacare L |
| Here's the question of the day: If you have a choice (and you many not for long because companies are abandoning grandfathered plans) Should you skip Obamacare and keep your old plan?
Any policy in place on March 23, 2010, the day health reform was enacted, falls under the grandfather exemption. As the Obama administration put it, if you like your plan, your doctor or both, you can keep them. Last year some 60 percent of employers, large and small, offered at least one grandfathered plan duriMonday, May 20, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Merkel Pins Cameron in Corner; Will Cameron Bury His Head in the Sand, Pretending to Not Notice? |
| UK prime minister, David Cameron, promised to hold a referendum on whether Great Britain should remain in the EU, but only on two conditions. The first condition, that Cameron be re-elected as prime minister is iffy enough.
The second condition, that Cameron renegotiate the Lisbon Treaty, I said would never happen. And it won't.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel sealed the fate on that score as Berlin plans to streamline EU but avoid wholesale treaty change.
Berlin is drawing up plans for treaTuesday, May 21, 2013 |
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| Jesse - Le Café Américain |
| SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - Pause Ahead of Bernanke's Wednesday Testimony |
| There is no major economic news scheduled for tomorrow. Let's see if the wiseguys can keep the 'Rally Tuesday' trend going.
Zimbabwe Ben will be testifying to the Congress on Wednesday morning, and the FOMC minutes from the May 1 meeting will be released.
VIX is subdued, and the SP 500 cash is overbought.Monday, May 20, 2013 |
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| Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan |
| The Mathematical Reality Is We’re Losing Over 600,000 Jobs a Month That Have Been Hidden From View |
| The Dow Jones is soaring. The unemployment rate is stable. People are shopping. America is in recovery.
Or is it?
Despite all of the positive spin being put on the global and domestic economic recovery, the truth is that nothing of the sort is actually happening.
Any observant analyst can deduce that 15,000+ stock market values are a result of easy money being pumped into investment banks, who then slam that money straight into markets. The Fed itself is reportedly providing direct liquidity to Tuesday, May 07, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| Huge Bubble in India Home Prices Ready to Burst |
| Here are some interesting charts by Deepak Shenoy on the India Housing Bubble.
India HPI
click on any chart for sharper image
India home prices have been going up at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 26% since March of 2009.
Mumbai and Delhi
Shenoy reports Mumbai is growing at a CAGR of 30%, and Dehli is up 47% from a year ago and 250% since March 2009.
Note the transaction volume in Delhi. Transaction volumes and prices are interesting in Bangalore and Chennai as well.
BangaloFriday, May 10, 2013 |
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| Mish - Global Economic Analysis |
| UK Does Not Need EU or Vice Versa; Problem Entirely in Cameron's Head |
| Wolfgang Münchau writing for the Financial Times correctly asserts Lord Lawson is right – Britain does not need Europe
In discussing the pros and cons of Britain’s membership of the EU, the most important point to remember is this: the terms of an exit are freely negotiable. This means that the economic consequences will depend to a large extent on those exit terms.
In his article in the Times last week, Lord Lawson, a former UK chancellor, argued that the regulatory costs of the single marketTuesday, May 14, 2013 |
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