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Crisis Watch
In the last 4 hours
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Venezuelan Bolivar Plunges to Record Low on Black Market; Bond Default Coming Up in October?
Please consider the "official" exchange rate of the Bolivar to the USD. Bolivar vs. US Dollar From 2005 to 2009 the official exchange rate was 2 bolivars to one US dollar. In 2009 the official exchange rate soared to 4.3 to the dollar. In 2013 the official exchange rate soared to 6.3 to the dollar. Venezuela allows "very limited" trading at 50 to the US dollar in a parallel exchange called Sicad II. On the black market today, it takes 89 bolivars to buy 1 US dollar. That is a 95% loss in
Friday, August 29, 2014
Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan
Massive 60% Stock Market Correction Coming: “Period Of Extreme Turmoil”
The confidence game is almost up warns Prudent Bear Fund President David Tice. And when the economic recovery and stock market build-up is finally revealed for the conjecture that it really is we’ll have a sell-off of unprecedented proportions. Markets could soon face a fall of up to 60 percent, two experts told CNBC on Wednesday. A jolt to international confidence in central banks will lead to a 30 to 60 percent market decline, David Tice, president of Tice Capital and founder of the Prudent Be
Friday, August 29, 2014
In the last 24 hours
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Trapped in Venezuela: Looking to Get Out? Good Luck!
Every day, the cost of a plane ticket out of Venezuela goes up. That assumes you can get a plane ticket, and you probably cannot, even if you booked three months ago.  Delta Air Lines, American Airlines, and Lufthansa cut the number of flights. Air Canada stopped all service. Economy class tickets to New York city cost as much as $3,000, if you can get them. And you probably can't. Instead, people take five-day rides to Lima, Peru as a means of escape. And that takes money as well. The result
Thursday, August 28, 2014
More than 24 hours ago
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
Credibility Trap: The War On Whistleblowers
“Everything secret degenerates, even the administration of justice; nothing is safe that does not show how it can bear discussion and publicity.” John Dalberg Lord Acton “A popular Government without popular information or the means of acquiring it, is but a prologue to a Farce or a Tragedy, or perhaps both." James Madison "There is little value in insuring the survival of our nation if our traditions do not survive with it. And there is very grave danger that an announced need for i
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
IMF Chief Under Investigation in French Fraud Case; Meet David Lipton (an Obama Clone), Lagarde's Po
IMF chief Christine Lagarde Under Formal Investigation in French fraud case. IMF chief Christine Lagarde has been put under formal investigation by French magistrates for alleged negligence in a political fraud affair dating from 2008 when she was finance minister. Lagarde was questioned by magistrates in Paris this week for a fourth time under her existing status as a witness in the long-running saga over allegations that tycoon Bernard Tapie won a large arbitration payout due to his politi
Thursday, August 28, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
  A Tale of Two Markets: One for Wealthy Insiders, And Another For the Rest of Us 
"We run carelessly to the precipice after we have put up a façade to prevent ourselves from seeing it.” Blaise Pascal   Here is a brief excerpt from an article today by the amazing team of Pam and Russ Martens at Wall Street On Parade titled, Are U.S. Markets Liquid and Deep or Rigged and Broken? I suggest you read the entire article when you have the opportunity. "...the SEC which oversees stock exchanges has allowed both the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq to create a bifurcated market.
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Rick Ackerman
Only Fools Still Hang on Yellen’s Every Word
Who would have believed when the Great Financial Crisis was winding down five years ago that the feather merchants, unrepentant as always and eager to make up for lost time, would be right back at it, erecting an even bigger, shakier house of cards?  A recent Wall Street Journal headline offers a hint of their success so far: “With Rates Low, Firms Near Borrowing Record.”  Fresh evidence that epic malinvestment is more robust than ever would be scary enough by itself. But to make matters worse,
Wednesday, August 27, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Cracks in China's Strained Housing Market, Incentives Up to $325,000; Shopping on Taobao, China's "e
Developers in China are offering up to $325,000 in incentives to home buyers. The catch? Incentives come in the form of a credit on Alibaba’s Taobao, an e-commerce platform similar to eBay. More modest discounts, some of them retroactive, are offered by other developers to combat sinking purchase volumes. Sinking Sales Volumes , Prices Sales are down 9.4% as measured by by floor space compared to the same 7-month period last year. Prices are down in 55 of 70 cities in June vs. May, and in 35
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Burger King Flips Obama the Bird; BK, Warren Buffet, Greg Mankiw, Barry Ritholtz, Mish on Corporate
Obama Condemns CEOs President Obama is fed up with corporations no paying their "fair tax". On August 24, Bloomberg reported Inversion Express Slows to Crawl as Obama Condemns CEOs On July 24 Obama referred to companies looking to shift their domicile as “corporate deserters” and aides pledged to curtail the practice with or without Congressional approval. Since then, no companies have announced any of these deals -- known as inversions -- and it’s no coincidence, according to lawyers and in
Tuesday, August 26, 2014
Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan
Former Mob Boss Warns Of Stock Market Crash: “I Don’t Trust Wall Street… Buy Gold And Si
If you want to know how crooks behave and what you can do to protect yourself, why not ask a former mob boss? Michael Franzese was once a captain in the Colombo crime family and generated tens of millions of dollars for his bosses with a scheme that involved skimming gas taxes from the state of New York. He was so successful, in fact, that he was perceived as a threat to the family and almost had his wings clipped by the higher ups. Shortly thereafter Franzese walked away from the mob, a move th
Monday, August 25, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
7,000 Trapped Ukrainian Forces; IMF to Fund Ukraine Wars?
IMF to Fund Ukraine Wars? Ukraine is bankrupt. It accepted an $18 Billion IMF Bailout in March, allegedly with strict conditions. Do those conditions allow war funding?  I have to ask because Ukraine's President Warns of ‘Constant Military Threat’ along with more military spending and a military parade. Ukraine’s pro-western president announced $3bn in additional defence spending on Sunday as he warned the war-torn country faced a “constant military threat” for the foreseeable future. P
Monday, August 25, 2014
Rick Ackerman
The Ignorant Still Hang on Yellen’s Every Word
Who would have believed when the Great Financial Crisis was winding down five years ago that the feather merchants, unrepentant as always and eager to make up for lost time, would be right back at it, erecting an even bigger, shakier house of cards?  A recent Wall Street Journal headline offers a hint of their success so far: “With Rates Low, Firms Near Borrowing Record.”  Fresh evidence that epic malinvestment is more robust than ever would be scary enough by itself. But to make matters worse,
Monday, August 25, 2014
Foof for thought
On the need for aversion to conspiracy theories

Saturday, August 23, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
Elizabeth Warren: What Happened to the Middle Class? 
You cannot possibly fix it if you don't know what happened.
Friday, August 22, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
It's Different This Time: Humans Need Not Apply; Two Possible Solutions
On August 7, I wrote about "McCashier" Your $15.00 Per Hour McDonald's Worker Replacement. Sure. You can make $15 an hour at McDonald's, at least in Seattle. You just have to perform better than this machine. Many commented along the lines of "What's the big deal? It's only a cashier. There are more cooking jobs that cannot be replaced." For example reader Chris commented ... A McDonalds worker isn't a "cashier." The person who works the front end doesn't just take orders and money. The pe
Monday, August 18, 2014
Rick Ackerman
A Hundred Scenarios Favor This Bet 
The wave of cash that flowed into U.S. Treasurys late last week should serve to remind us of the myriad ways investors can profit by betting on a rise in T-bonds prices and a corresponding decline in yields (details below).  All it took to set these flows in motion on Friday was some unsettling news from Ukraine. What was the news? That’s the point. Whatever it was, it barely registered on a global-crisis scale so weary of horrifying headlines that no story, no matter how ugly, stays above the f
Monday, August 18, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
SP 500 and NDX Futures Daily Charts - The Fog of Currency War
Stocks tried to shake off the poor economic news this morning *again* as there are more signs that the recovery is sluggish to floundering. There was news during the day that the Ukraine had attacked and partially destroyed a Russian armoured convoy. This sent stocks plunging for a brief period of time and put some jets under the VIX. Back to near unchanged near the close with big techs leading the way. We are now in the fog of currency war. I smell desperate antics from the Banks. Have a
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
Tales of William Wallace: Alba Gu Bràth 
Many years ago I visited Westminster Abbey, and among other things in a crowded gallery saw the Stane o Scuin sitting somewhat neglected and unremarked by a chair. I asked about it, and did some reading, and learned its story.  It had been used in the crowning of the monarchs of Scotland.    It had been taken from the Scots in 1296 as a spoil of war, and a symbol that Scotland now belonged to England.  It was subsequently used during coronation ceremonies of the English monarchs, as a symbol of
Friday, August 15, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
Nomi Prins: All the President's Bankers
This is a walk through the twentieth century, and how the United States became, by design, a combination military, industrial, and financial global superpower.  And how the US dollar hegemony was created over a number of political administrations by groups of well connected, powerful families and friends. Its a bit long, and Nomi speaks briskly with many fact laden vignettes and scenarios. I am reasonably familiar with this subject from about 1905 through 1950. She did a ni
Friday, August 15, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
  Rule of Small Prices; European Sanction Solidarity Goes Up in Flames: Slovakia "We Can’t Sacrifice O
Tit-for-tat sanction cracks widened to the breaking point today following a report Ukraine Approves Law on Sanctions Against Russia. Europe is particularly concerned about a Ukraine statement that "European energy companies would have to agree major contract revisions when purchasing Russian natural gas if parliament approved sanctions on Gazprom." Slovakia prime minister Robert Fico was so concerned he made a few common sense, yet very pointed statements to reporters in Bratislava. Sancti
Thursday, August 14, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
The Ultimate End Game – World War III? 
For time immemorial governments have sought distractions from – and scapegoats for – their own failures; and nowhere is the record more clear than the long, sorry history of fiat currency regimes.  Whether via coordinated actions or indirect consequences, the end result is always the same – as like trapped rats, governments will do anything to survive. In the case of 21st century America, nearly a century of “superpower” status is nearing its end; principally due to abuse its “reserve currency s
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Capital Flight From China, One Person at a Time, Via ATM and Bitcoin
In response to New Yuan Loans and Shadow Banking Collapse in China; Record Bank Deposit Slump reader "CF" from Hong Kong who works in China explains how he is pulling every cent he can out of renminbi (yuan) , converting instead to Hong Kong dollars. From "CF" regarding his personal "capital flight" experiences ... Hey Mish, I am a reader from Hong Kong who works and lives in China and earns RMB. I never doubted a collapse in Chinese shadow banking would happen. I have been constantly convert
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
New Yuan Loans and Shadow Banking Collapse in China; Record Bank Deposit Slump
A major alarm bell just rang in China with the release of July credit figures according Macro Business Australia. Chinese Credit Just Collapsed and shadow banking with it. Here are a couple of charts. Yuan Loans New yuan loans were 385.2 bn versus 780.0 bn expected and and prior was 1080. Shadow Banking Aggregate social financing was 273 bn yuan versus 1500.0 bn expected and prior was 1970 bn implying that shadow banking credit contracted 112 bn in the month. Record Bank Deposit Slum
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Japan GDP Plunges 6.8%, Consumption Down 19.2%, Private Investment Down 9.7%
In the wake of an inane sales tax hike Japan’s GDP Shrinks 6.8%, Most Since 2011 Gross domestic product shrank an annualized 6.8 percent in the three months through June, the Cabinet Office said. That was less than the median estimate of 37 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News for a 7 percent drop. Unadjusted for price changes, GDP declined 0.4 percent. “The probability is high that the July-September quarter will see a rebound,” said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research
Wednesday, August 13, 2014
Rick Ackerman
Does ‘Braveheart’ Ending Await Bears?
Although the Dow Industrials finished the week with a 186-point rally, there’s reason to hope that this latest, drug-addled binge will sputter out within the next two or three days if not sooner. The sleazeballs who engineered Friday’s impressive levitation had to pull out quite a few stops to make it happen. To get things rolling, they precipitously withdrew their bids Thursday night on news that Asian markets were getting socked, apparently because of bad vibes from Ukraine. The air pocket in
Monday, August 11, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Weekend Entertainment: Dr. Strangelove vs. Mario Draghi
For those needing a weekend humorous reprieve, I offer this email from Noel in Vancouver Canada. Hi Mish Couldn't resist this. Look at Mario Draghi's picture and tell me Peter Sellers couldn't have made a comedy out of that! "Doctor Strangelove, Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bailout" Keep up the great writing! Noel Vancouver, Canada Peter Sellers vs. Mario Draghi Slim Pickens Clip If somehow you missed the movie, do yourself a favor and play this full video link o
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Gordon Long - Market Analytics
The Process of Topping
Public Availability: Initially released to Subscribers on 06/10/14. Normally a 6-8 Week Release Lag If you stand back from the markets, the degree of distortions we currently see is of historic proportions. Frankly, I have never seen anything like this before, including 1987, the 2000 Dotcom Bubble and the run up to the 2007 financial crisis. Corporate profits after tax are something we haven't seen since the gilded age at the end of the 19th century, but it isn't because
Sunday, August 10, 2014
Jesse - Le Cafe Américain
Mission Accomplished
"Plunderers of the world, when nothing remains on the lands to which they have laid waste by wanton thievery, they search out across the seas. The wealth of another region excites their greed; and if it is weak, their lust for power as well. Nothing from the rising to the setting of the sun is enough for them. Among all others only they are compelled to attack the poor as well as the rich.  Robbery, rape, and slaughter they falsely call empire; and where they make a desert, they call it
Saturday, August 09, 2014
Tim Iacono - Iacono Research
Retiring Early is Un-American 
It wasn’t immediately clear that the usage of the word “Un-American” in the title above was appropriate, that is, until reading this definition at Wikipedia: Un-American is a pejorative term of U.S. political discourse which is applied to people or institutions in the United States seen as deviating from what are widely perceived to be fundamental American cultural and political values Now, there are clearly no politics involved here. Rather, it is the deviation from well established cultural va
Thursday, August 07, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Italy "Unexpectedly" Slips Back Into Recession
The optimism of mainstream economists is rather curious. Economics appears to be right up there with faith-healing as the most optimistic profession on the planet. Here is a case in point: Bloomberg reports Italy Unexpectedly Returns to Recession. Italy unexpectedly returned to recession and German factory orders dropped the most since 2011 as slowing global growth and rising tensions with Russia over Ukraine threaten the euro area’s recovery. Italy’s economy shrank 0.2 percent in the secon
Thursday, August 07, 2014