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Profile and commentaries of user4779
user4779
Member since December 2014
Followed by 1 memberFollows 0 member
48 commentaries, with 5 Replies
3 replies to his comments (6%)
Average Note : 76 / 100 for 16 rated commentaries  26  8 
Last commentary posted on Thursday, October 27, 2016
 
 Profile Commentaries Followed By Following 
 Jeffrey Lewis
One Giant Cluster Ponzi  (1)
Perhaps some good points are made in this article. I don't know. I gave up trying to follow a thread through this intellectual dog's breakfast. Next time, try to do one thing at a time for the sake of us simple-minded folk.
10/27/2016 at 10:55 PMPermalink
 Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
Gold Is 'Money' Because It Is Plentiful, Not Because It Is Scarce  (5)
3186/181000 = 1.76% (not 2.1%).
10/2/2016 at 7:09 PMPermalink
 Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
The "Giant Rise in the Value of Gold" Theory of the 1930s 3: Supply and Demand  (1)
A very useful article. Thank you.
9/26/2016 at 9:40 AMPermalink
 Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
Read the opposite of what you believe  (4)
Really good advice, which one needs to be reminded of from time to time, because it is so easy to slip back into the comfort of seeking confirmation.
8/30/2016 at 11:31 AM  1  0  Rating :  1 Permalink
 Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits
Who Sets the Gold Price  (1)
Perhaps this article could teach us something; but I gave up trying to read it. Please edit.
3/24/2016 at 9:33 PMPermalink
 Nelson Hultberg - AFR.org
Free Trade vs. Fair Trade  (5)
No. The argument for free trade does not depend on other countries reciprocating. The classic example is Hong Kong, which went from poverty to wealth by allowing free trade regardless of how it was treated by other countries. It remains true, though, that both sides benefit more if free trade is bilateral.
3/14/2016 at 2:43 PM  1  0  Rating :  1 Permalink
 Chris Powell - GATA
Koos Jansen: Has Shanghai Gold Exchange stopped reporting withdrawal data
See Koos's later article published on 5 February.
2/24/2016 at 1:18 PMPermalink
 Steve Saville - Speculative Investor
Stealing Deflation  (4)
Thank you, Steve. Beautifully put.
11/29/2015 at 10:16 PMPermalink
 Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
Intellectual Support For Gold-Based Money Is Leading To Political Support  (4)
Yes, the intellectual impetus is needed. But a big change to the entrenched political status quo is unlikely, until a disaster points to the need for it. Sadly, we will have to wait for this disaster to happen first.
11/9/2015 at 11:53 AMPermalink
 Hugo Salinas Price - Plata.com
The Fundamental Flaw of 'Mainstream Economics'  (4)
This is an idealistic viewpoint. In reality, governments regulate money, and have done so for thousands of years. Apart from primitive or isolated societies, the only exceptions are to be found in brief transient periods of financial anarchy, typically in the final stages of war and hyperinflation when there is a massive failure of government.

Also, it is possible to distinguish the matter of how unders...
10/22/2015 at 11:48 AMPermalink
 Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint
Demand-Price Disconnect  (4)
Typo query: "... with Q2 2015 tonnage of 786.6 up 3.1% on Q2 2015 ...". Should that be "... up 3.1% on Q2 2014 ..."?
8/17/2015 at 7:43 PMPermalink
 Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint
The Texas bullion depository is not a joke
"For example, over the past 10 years The Perth Mint has generated $212,661 million in profit before tax and paid $164,299 million to its state government." Hmm ... the tax alone is more than the entire value of all the gold mined in Australia over the same period (whether you reckon it in US or Australian dollars).
7/14/2015 at 12:28 AM  0  1  Rating :  -1 Permalink
 Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan
Man Grabbed, Crushed to Death By Factory Robot: “This is Just the Start… Machines Will Take Over Our Lives”
The "lump of labour" fallacy raises its tired old head yet again, mixed in with B-movie-style sci-fi speculation about a terrible robotic future world. Anyone who doesn't like machines doing manual work can make a start by throwing out their washing machine. As for machines killing people, already 100 people a day are killed by machines---the majority of them motor vehicles. Fully automatic vehicles will not gai...
7/4/2015 at 12:00 AMPermalink
 George F. Smith - Barbarous Relic
One more book, Mr. Stockman  (1)
While it is true that "[Gold standards] were abused, suspended, and ultimately abandoned in favor of a currency that central banks could inflate at will", it's worth recalling that the British gold standard, introduced (unofficially) in 1717, survived almost 200 years, until the catastrophic losses of the first world war induced the British government to suspend and ultimately renege on it. In that period, we ha...
7/2/2015 at 11:02 AM  0  1  Rating :  -1 2 AnswersPermalink
 Hugo Salinas Price - plata.com.mx
The Gold Standard: Generator Protector Of Jobs  (14)
Is it really so bad for Americans that they do not spend their lives labouring on a production line to make mass-produced goods, and have left this task to the Chinese? Do you envy those Chinese workers? Not me! And surely it is good that (what is now) 2 billion people (who happen to be Asians) have escaped from grinding poverty, albeit not all into wealth by Western standards. Free trade has been of immense ben...
6/30/2015 at 8:48 PM1 AnswerPermalink
 Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
Gold Seasonals Bottoming  (2)
Thank you, Adam, for another interesting and informative article. The pattern of price movements would show up best if the data were detrended (by the annual rate of ca. 12%) and the year started in late February (about the average start of the Chinese new year). That would show a year of two halves: A drop of about 10% from late February to late July, and a balancing rise from late July to late February. It wou...
6/12/2015 at 11:56 PM  4  1  Rating :  3 Permalink
 Frank Shostak
Technology Needs Capital To Produce Economic Growth  (2)
The benefits of information technology show up disappointingly in the GDP numbers because they often flow directly to the ultimate consumers, without being traded by corporations and sending off streams of salaries, taxes, profits, and so on which contribute to GDP. Information is like physical goods in that its value is appreciated, and it can be traded; and this is recognized by economists and business people....
6/8/2015 at 10:55 AM  3  0  Rating :  3 Permalink
 Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint
No, JP Morgan is not buying Silver Eagles  (3)
Agreed, JPM is not buying silver eagles in order to melt them into bullion. But possibly it is playing two parallel games: one in the bullion market and one in the coin market. Arguably, if you want to accumulate a commodity on a large scale without pushing the price up too much against yourself, then it is best to spread your buying across different markets in which the commodity trades.
5/19/2015 at 2:08 PMPermalink
 Chris Powell - GATA
Peru is another rich country insisting on being poor and pockmarked  (1)
The argument that a low gold price contributes to the environmental ravages of artisinal mining is specious. If anything, the opposite is true: a high gold price will encourage artisinal miners, leading to an overall increase their activity and its extension to more marginal areas. Only an effectively enforced permitting system, based on well-defined property rights, can prevent further damage. A free-for-all is...
5/18/2015 at 5:10 PMPermalink
 FOFOA - FoFOA
Clean Float – Why the Dollar Must Collapse  (1)
I started to lose the thread of this article pretty early on. Would anyone care to venture a summary of the main point? Sure: the dollar will decline against gold; but the usual comparison is against a trade-weighted index of fiat currencies. While the political/economic/financial fundamentals for the US dollar are dire, the same can be said---each in its own unique way---for the euro (Greece etc.), yen (governm...
5/17/2015 at 9:52 PMPermalink
 Perth Mint Blog - Perth Mint Blog.
Who Are The Top Gold Producing Countries
According to the World Gold Council, global gold mine production in 2014 was 3135 tonnes---nearly 10% above American Bullion's figure of 2860 tonnes. Who is right?
5/14/2015 at 1:36 PMPermalink
 Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint
Dark Gold  (1)
Another five-star article with excellent graphics by Bron Suchecki.
5/12/2015 at 12:42 PMPermalink
 Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint
10 year Price vs Sentiment Map for Gold  (3)
Thanks, Bron, for this nice chart---more informative than just a plain old scatter plot. A 5-star article.
5/1/2015 at 4:51 PMPermalink
 Mac Slavo - ShtfPlan
It’s Over: This Is the ONLY Picture You Need To See To Know It’s Time To Get Out Of Stocks  (2)
Two questions arise about photo of the fruit seller: when? and where? The laptop or notebook computer puts it probably in the last 5 years. That, coupled with the fact that he is selling from a handcart, suggests a country in the middle rank of economic development. From the sheer weight of numbers, China is the most likely bet. The knitting ladies belong to a slightly earlier period, when computer monitors had...
4/29/2015 at 3:19 PMPermalink
 Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
Gold-Futures Short Covering  (2)
Five stars for this well-written article which so clearly explains the dynamics of the market in gold futures. The synthetic volatility generated by speculators in this market provides a free lunch for long-term accumulators of the metal in two ways: (1) the artificial price movement created by their activity boosts the natural volatility to a level that deters safety-seeking investors (who do not perceive the f...
4/11/2015 at 11:29 AMPermalink
 Jim Willie CB - Hat Trick Letter
Gold Effect on Mining Shale Wasteland  (5)
A jumbled and rambling article, seasoned with hyperbolic rant, but redeemed by interesting information. So 3/5. A good editor could turn this into a 5/5 article half the length.
3/27/2015 at 9:58 AM  0  1  Rating :  -1 Permalink
 Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
The Silver:Gold Ratio, 1687-2011  (17)
You are right that a currency based on precious metal is subject to inflation if there is a big increase in the supply of that metal. Indeed, this happened during the mid-to-late 16th century in Europe, when the Spanish imported silver plundered from the Americas. But this inflation was mild in comparison with that of the fiat currencies of the 20th century. It is less of a risk now because, despite ever-advanci...
3/23/2015 at 9:37 PMPermalink
 Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
The Silver:Gold Ratio, 1687-2011  (17)
"The red line in the chart is a 16:1 silver:gold ratio, and the green line is a 15:1 ratio." This is the wrong way round: swap "red" and "green".
3/23/2015 at 9:09 PMPermalink
 Food for thought - 24hgold
Warren Buffet on Gold  (5)
The Martian will notice, if he observes long enough, that very occasionally these vaulted reserves are spent. In the second world war, Britain spent a significant part of her gold reserve in buying essential supplies from the United States. Without these vital supplies, Britain would have collapsed. An important role for gold reserves, even in the absence of a monetary gold standard, is to serve as insurance at ...
3/21/2015 at 11:15 AM  2  0  Rating :  2 Permalink
 John Rubino - Dollar Collapse
Lessons of History, Part 1: Not a Mention of Money  (5)
" By the late 1800s Britain's King George, Russia's Czar Nicholas, and Germany's Kaiser Wilhelm were all grandsons of Britain's Queen Elizabeth." It is left as an exercise for the reader to spot how many errors there are in this statement.
3/13/2015 at 9:48 PM1 AnswerPermalink
 Gary Tanashian - Biwii
Gold Sucks!  (3)
The last chart is getting there, but it is not comparing comparable things. What is needed is a chart of the ratio of the value, in US dollars, of all the gold in the world to the value (also in US dollars) of the US monetary base. These are comparable because (1) both quantities represent total amounts of money, in the same units (dollars), and (2) both play comparable roles as primary candidates for the world'...
3/13/2015 at 2:48 PMPermalink
 Perth Mint Blog - Perth Mint Blog.
How Much Gold Will The Apple Watch Require  (1)
Hublot ( http://www.hublotnation.com/2013/09/13/magic-gold-hublots-exclusive-material/ ) says that it is keeping the gold--boron-carbide fusion exclusive. So how did Apple get a license? Or did Apple find a work-around?
3/10/2015 at 1:26 PMPermalink
 FOFOA - FoFOA
Confessions of an Erratic Marxist  (2)
" Physical assets rise in value as more Savers save in them, but debt must rise in volume in order to accommodate a growth in savings." The first part of this is true, but the second is not necessarily so. If savers chose equities as the medium for their increased savings, then share prices would rise. Any company enjoying such a boost to its share price could then issue new shares at a high price, with the bles...
2/12/2015 at 4:18 PMPermalink
 Charleston Voice
The Plundered Gold Depository at Fort Knox  (2)
This is almost unreadable. If you must use a machine-translation, please at least get an editor to sort it out.
2/12/2015 at 2:27 PM  3  0  Rating :  3 Permalink
 Nathan Lewis - New World Economics
When Even the Fed Is Confused, We Still Have Some Work To Do  (1)
Great article! Will you please do a follow-up article on precisely how a fixed ratio can be maintained---the right way and the wrong ways---and perhaps a third article on the implications for the spending and fiscal policy of the government?
2/1/2015 at 6:52 PMPermalink
 Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Marine Le Pen Soars Into Lead in French Presidential Polls for 2017; Don't Worry, Nothing Can Possibly Go Wrong  (1)
Some of the polled people must be voting for 2 presidents: the combined votes total at least 134%.
1/30/2015 at 2:36 PM  1  0  Rating :  1 Permalink
 Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint
German repatriation - trainspotters only
Very good article. Thank you.
1/21/2015 at 11:36 PMPermalink
 Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
Silver Ready to Run  (2)
"Since way back in May 2012 [ ... ] the bullion that SLV holds in trust for its shareholders has risen on balance.": Perhaps you mean 2011? (Although, a fortiori, it would be true for 2012 too.)
1/17/2015 at 12:38 AMPermalink
 Bron Suchecki - Perth Mint
Chinese gold demand and SGE withdrawals: the role of leasing and inventory changes
Yes, but your argument works both ways. Suppose that retail demand slackens, and the jeweller decides to let inventory run down. He doesn't buy his 100 oz for a month or so. Then wholesale demand underestimates retail demand (which is still continuing, albeit at a somewhat slower rate). In the long run, the error averages to zero. The only way to get a really accurate measure of retail demand is to measure it di...
1/8/2015 at 1:00 PM  3  1  Rating :  2 Permalink
 Peter Schiff - Euro Pacific Capital
Hurts So Good: When Exactly Are Falling Prices Bad  (6)
Thank you, Peter. Beautifully written, crystal-clear, and absolutely correct.
1/6/2015 at 2:31 PM  1  0  Rating :  1 Permalink
 Chris Martenson
Keep Your Eyes On The Prize  (3)
The supply of energy isn't really the problem. Solar power could provide all the world's energy in abundance. The price would be high; but there is no reason for it to increase much from the present level, and it can be met. Ultimately, the critical problem is getting rid of the waste heat.
1/5/2015 at 2:39 PM  0  1  Rating :  -1 Permalink
 Hugo Salinas Price - Plata.com.mx
Reflections on the effects of War as compared to the effects of Fiat Money  (57)
According to tradingeconomics.com, the average wage for Chinese industrial workers is CNY46,431 or about USD7480 per annum. The unfortunate Foxconn polishers (hardly "technicians") you cite would thus have to work a 100-hour week to get a tenth of this average. The technician I was referring to would be at the skilled end of the industrial workforce, earning above-average pay (say $10,000 p.a.) and monitoring au...
12/31/2014 at 9:18 PM  2  1  Rating :  1 Permalink
 Hugo Salinas Price - Plata.com.mx
Reflections on the effects of War as compared to the effects of Fiat Money  (57)
This article embodies the mercantilist presumption that it is desirable for a country to produce everything it needs with its own labour force. It also ignores the revolution in the productivity of manufacturing: A Chinese technician strolling up and down an automated production line now produces as much as a hundred American workers did sweating over their hand-operated machines 30 years ago. Perhaps the author...
12/27/2014 at 3:06 PM  3  1  Rating :  2 1 AnswerPermalink
 Bill Downey - Commodity Trader
Gold Price chart showing big drop before rise during Weimar hyperinflationary event
The article ludicrously misinterprets the chart. What the chart shows is the market price of German Aktien, namely shares in British or stocks in American English, in terms of gold, during the hyperinflationary period of Germany in the early 1920s. Measured in terms of real money (i.e. gold), German shares did become very cheap during that period, and then recovered sharply, as shown by the chart. The chart has ...
12/17/2014 at 1:18 PM  2  0  Rating :  2 Permalink

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