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Articles related to real inflation
 
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
All Of These Items Point To a Collapse in the Markets
The primary drivers of asset prices are the economy and corporate earnings. Unfortunately, both are indicating future weakness. If you want a somewhat accurate measure of GDP growth, you need to ignore the headline GDP numbers an look at nominal GDP. The reason for this is that all “adjusted” GDP data involves a “deflator” metric that is meant to adjust for inflation. The Feds often use an inflation adjustment that is even lower than their official Consumer Price Index metric (which is alread
Friday, October 31, 2014
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
Neither the US Nor China Will be an Engine For Global Growth Next Year
The investment world is banking on real growth being just around the corner. However, the data does not confirm this view. Let’s talk about China first. Half of all global growth is expected to come from China, which is forecast to grow by 6.5%-7% next year. Now, China’s economic numbers are for the most part fictitious. However, there is one metric that cannot be fudged and that is electricity consumption. Either electricity is being used or it is not. With that in mind, we must consider that C
Friday, October 24, 2014
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
A Reversion to the Mean is Coming...
The stock market is no longer cheap. The single best predictor of stock market performance is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio or CAPE ratio. Most investors price a company based on its current Price to Earnings or P/E ratio. Essentially what you’re doing is comparing the price of the company today to its ability to produce earnings (cash). However, corporate earnings are heavily influenced by the business cycle. Typically the US experiences a boom and bust once every ten years
Thursday, October 09, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Ramifications
Frankly, it’s impossible to understate how ugly Friday’s NFP report was once one looks past the fabricated, propagandized “headline” number.  Recall, we all but guaranteed “higher than expected” job creation and a “lower than expected” unemployment rate; as this was the last NFP report before the mid-term elections.  However, we qualified such “optimism” with the usual warning to beware of the internals – which as usual, couldn’t be worse. Apparently, not only are part-time and temp jobs now con
Monday, October 06, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Housing “Recovery” – RIP
According to the MSM, yesterday’s equity plunge was due to the Russians considering counter-sanctions against the West.  I mean, how pathetic can the propaganda get – as if such actions, if indeed taken would “surprise” anyone?  Alternatively, any financial professional would look at charts like this one – depicting dramatically higher valuations then even the 2000 mania peak – and run for the hills, no matter what the Russians were doing.  To boot, amidst the weakest global economic backdrop an
Friday, September 26, 2014
Bill Downey - Commodity Trader
Important medium term cycles in gold coming in play in September
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Sept 9 2014 Gold Daily Report ~ Sept 9, 2014 Trend Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Medium Term ~ Neutral– The failure on gold’s part to close above the moving averages on a monthly basis (March, April, May, July, August) has left the downside open to lower Price potential. Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need a close back above 1306 for neutral. Short Term ~ Bearish- Gold cycles due to turn next week. In
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
FOFOA - FoFOA
Six!
Six years ago today, I started this blog as a tribute to something I'd only discovered three months earlier. The fact that I'm still at it six years later speaks to the depth of the material I had only glimpsed when I started. I once started another blog on a different subject and lost interest after only a couple of months. I do tend to lose interest easily. In college, I changed majors and colleges several times, and after college I changed careers twice. Six years on one subject, for me, is r
Monday, August 25, 2014
Jeffrey Lewis
Monetary Versus Political Stability - When Day Turns into Night
Wherever plunder is less burdensome than labor, it prevails; and neither religion nor morality can, in this case, prevent it from prevailing.- From Bastiat's "The Law"Representing all things big, institutional investors believe there is no inflation.The market "behaves" as if there is none. This undercuts value at risk.But reality is very different. Across the board, price is determined by a broken system fueled by an unsound economy. (The developing Ebola pandemic may serve as an example and a
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Ty Andros - traderview
Useful Idiots and the Something For Nothing Society - Part III of IV 
The greatest man made societal and economic collapse in history is unfolding before our eyes. This Journey to the collapse of the developed world's civilization and empire began over 100 years ago during the Presidency of Woodrow Wilson with his subversion/betrayal of the constitution of the United States and creation of a privately owned banking and currency monopoly called the Federal Reserve and the creation of the income tax to fund the beginning of the Confiscationism of the pro
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Need Or Want, Demand Is Dying
Here’s all you need to know – starting with today’s COMEX gold and silver options expiration.  Trust me, it’s no “coincidence” that we witnessed the 56th “Sunday night sentiment” raid of the past 57 weeks and 267th “2:15 AM” attack of the past 301 trading days. Moreover, TPTB are still reeling from Friday’s rare “key upside reversal” in the PM markets – and more importantly, the Treasury yield plunge that further solidified the “most damning proof yet of QE failure”; i.e., the inexorable decline
Monday, July 28, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Historical Norms
“HISTORICAL NORMS” Following last week’s soon-to-be-infamous Yellen quote that “price equity ratios and other measures (of stock, bond, and real estate valuation) are not outside historic norms,” I thought I’d do a bit of thought-streaming – starting with what an “historical norm” refers to. Since this blog focuses principally on financial topics – and specifically, money – “historical” can refer to trends going back to the dawn of man. As a leading Precious Metals purveyor, Miles Franklin has b
Monday, July 21, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
The Absolute Peak Of Lunacy
The Absolute Peak Of Lunacy Let’s start by simply getting the “pink elephant” out of the way. Yesterday’s PM “drive-by shooting,” on essentially the lowest volume trading day of the year, represents an act of desperation as urgent as any we’ve seen to date. In the past month, whilst gold and silver were rising sharply from powerful “triple bottom” formations, the Cartel was naked shorting a nearly unprecedented $20 billion of COMEX futures out of shear panic – culminating in yesterday’s “mystery
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Eric Coffin - Hard Rock Analyst
There's Something Happening Here 
Gold made the move I hoped for and predicted in the last issue. It's consolidating well above May price levels now. Traders will want to see a couple of more steps up in price to really get on board but the tone of the market has definitely improved again since early June. Significantly, base metals have also shown a lot of relative strength in the past few sessions. It's been a long time since we have seen the whole metals complex on the move.
Friday, July 11, 2014
John Rubino - Dollar Collapse
  This Is Disgusting -- And the Food Sounds Gross Too 
It is by now generally understood, at least in the sound money community, that inflation is much higher than the government admits and that the true extent of the problem is being hidden in various ways. But the specifics keep getting more and more disturbing. Here's a recent Phoenix Capital note (via Zero Hedge) on the adulteration of our "food." Do You REALLY Think The Official Inflation Numbers Are Even CLOSE To Accurate? Last week we noted that inflation has already entere
Wednesday, July 09, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Brain Worms - Bloomberg Writer Noah Smith Has Them
On July 2, Bloomberg columnist Noah Smith wrote a column on Austrian Economists, 9/11 Truthers and Brain Worms. Noah claims ... When the Austrian brain-worm invades, you start believing things like: 1) Federal Reserve money-printing is a government plot to boost big banks, 2) prices are rising much faster than anyone thinks, 3) real “inflation” means money-printing, not an increase in prices, 4) printing money can never boost the economy, 5) academic economics is a plot to use mathematical mum
Sunday, July 06, 2014
Ty Andros - traderview
Surrender, GDP collapse, moral hazard 
This week has not been sleepy when it comes to the news. It feels like a firecracker out there just waiting for a match in my opinion. There have been too many issues to cover them all but here are a few TedBits for you: Surrender GDP collapse Explosive divergence between volume and price MORAL HAZARD written large Leverage peak in stocks? SOME People aren't DUMB EU elites pull another FAST ONE Surrender One hundred years ago this week World War I commenced and the specter
Sunday, June 29, 2014
Jeffrey Lewis
Trading the Ratios and Swapping Gold for Silver 
Primary gold investors versus silver investors are not exactly alike.Swapping gold for silver is a trade always worth considering, especially when the ratio blows out as wide as it is now. Portability is one obvious reason for the reverse, as long as premiums match up in the transaction. But the main advantage to this kind of swap is that silver almost always tends to cover more ground percentage-wiser and faster when it is allowed to move in a significant way.When the price ratio of gold to sil
Saturday, June 28, 2014
Deepcaster
Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Interventions ? July, 2014 Update
July 2014 UpdateWeek Ending 06/27/2014Profit, Protection, Despite Cartel Interventions – July, 2014 Update“Bankers’ parasitic behavior, the result of a cultural phase transition, is entirely characteristic of a society nearing collapse. Wealth is no longer created; it is taken from others. Parasitic behavior is not confined to bankers; it also infects high government officials, corporate executives and the elite societal stratum….”Jim Rickards, The Death of Money, June 2014A Major Goal of the in
Friday, June 27, 2014
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
"Real" and "Unreal" Wages; Five Decades of Middle Class Decline in Pictures
What follows is a guest post from Doug Short at Advisor Perspectives. This post has its roots in a discussion we had about "real" (inflation-adjusted) wages. Doug took our initial discussion and merged it with the number of hours people work.   Here is the decidedly bleak result: Real weekly earnings were $825 in 1973. Today they are $690. Doug Short Guest Post As a follow-up on some collaboration with Mike Shedlock in advance of his recent commentary on wages over time, here's a perspect
Friday, June 20, 2014
Eric Coffin - Hard Rock Analyst
Summer Heat (?)
Ok, it could be another head fake (there have been plenty) but the latest move in the gold stocks looks strong enough to be the real thing, even though its just begun. If it is it will represent a very different outcome for the sector though the summer than most are expecting. Of course that is the thing about markets. They have a disconcerting habit of doing precisely what most traders don't expect. A couple of HRA list compa
Wednesday, June 18, 2014
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