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Articles related to real inflation
 
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Seven Year Negative Returns in Stocks and Bonds; Fraudulent Promises
It is extremely refreshing to see a large, prominent, and historically accurate fund manager lay it on the line. GMO does that quarter after quarter, with no-nonsense projections. As of March 31, their 7-Year Asset Class Real Return Forecast is as follows. Serious Question for Pension Plans Given pension plan assumptions of 7-8% annualized returns how many of them can survive negative returns for seven years? It's important to not that GMO is talking about "real" inflation-adjusted retur
Thursday, April 23, 2015
Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
Beware the Stock Bear!
The US stock markets? latest record highs have left traders exceedingly euphoric and complacent.  They are utterly convinced this stock bull will power higher for years to come.  But their enthusiasm is very misplaced.  In real inflation-adjusted terms, the US stock markets only just regained breakeven levels 15 years after the last secular bull peaked.  Now the secular stock bear ever since is overdue for a new cyclical bear. The flagship benchmark ind
Friday, February 20, 2015
Chris Martenson
When This Ends, Everybody Gets Hurt
Central banks around the globe have taken us all into unchartered territory, where the possible paths boil down to a binary outcome: either it all works out or it doesn’t. Unfortunately, the ‘it all works out’ outcome has a very low probability of actually happening; so the binary outcome isn't equally weighted like a coin toss.  By ‘working out’, here’s what the central banks all striving (praying?) for: Inflation of 2% to 3% per year Economic growth of at least 6% per year (nominal) and a rea
Saturday, January 24, 2015
Jeffrey Lewis
Lady Fortune Spinning Her Wheels
“Opportunity is missed by most people because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.”- Thomas A EdisonI'm writing this after spending a few days with my son and a couple of friends. My wife and I are both health professionals by day. Our life and schedule often leaves one of us "in charge" on the weekends -- usually me. Now, at the advanced age of five years old, these fellows are just learning how to get along. They are learning how to work out differences, negotiate possessions, and de
Friday, January 16, 2015
John Browne - Euro Pacific Capital
The Hidden Perils of Low Interest Rates
Late last year, with the U.S. economy experiencing falling unemployment and seemingly low inflation, observers were extremely confident that the Federal Reserve would move judiciously in 2015 to restore 'normal' interest rates sooner rather than later. However, in light of the recent fall in both stocks and oil, that conviction has softened considerably. Many, such as the very influential Bill Gross, now believe that our current Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP), which has been in place for six y
Friday, January 09, 2015
Mish - Global Economic Analysis
Competitive Theories: "Deflation Warning" vs. "Inflation is Nearly Everywhere"
Theory #1: Break-Even Rates Provide "Deflation Warning" Bloomberg is sounding a Deflation Warning as 2-Year Break-Even Rates Go Negative. Break-even rates are the difference between treasuries and the same-duration Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS). The break-even rate turned negative yesterday for the first time since 2009. In theory, break-even rates reflect investors’ expectations for inflation over the life of the securities. When break-even rates are negative, it's an indic
Friday, December 19, 2014
Adam Hamilton - Zealllc
SPX Topping Valuations 4
The prevailing valuations in the lofty US stock markets are increasingly becoming a bone of contention.Wall Street calmly asserts stocks are fairly valued or even cheap, since it has a huge vested interest in keeping people fully-invested.But a growing chorus of dissenters is disputing that idyllic notion, warning that stock valuations are very high and portend great downside risk.Indeed, topping valuations abound.Since investing is all about buying low and selling high, the price paid for any i
Friday, December 12, 2014
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
All Of These Items Point To a Collapse in the Markets
The primary drivers of asset prices are the economy and corporate earnings. Unfortunately, both are indicating future weakness. If you want a somewhat accurate measure of GDP growth, you need to ignore the headline GDP numbers an look at nominal GDP. The reason for this is that all “adjusted” GDP data involves a “deflator” metric that is meant to adjust for inflation. The Feds often use an inflation adjustment that is even lower than their official Consumer Price Index metric (which is alread
Friday, October 31, 2014
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
Neither the US Nor China Will be an Engine For Global Growth Next Year
The investment world is banking on real growth being just around the corner. However, the data does not confirm this view. Let’s talk about China first. Half of all global growth is expected to come from China, which is forecast to grow by 6.5%-7% next year. Now, China’s economic numbers are for the most part fictitious. However, there is one metric that cannot be fudged and that is electricity consumption. Either electricity is being used or it is not. With that in mind, we must consider that C
Friday, October 24, 2014
Phoenix Capital - Gains Pains & Capital
A Reversion to the Mean is Coming...
The stock market is no longer cheap. The single best predictor of stock market performance is the cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings ratio or CAPE ratio. Most investors price a company based on its current Price to Earnings or P/E ratio. Essentially what you’re doing is comparing the price of the company today to its ability to produce earnings (cash). However, corporate earnings are heavily influenced by the business cycle. Typically the US experiences a boom and bust once every ten years
Thursday, October 09, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Ramifications
Frankly, it’s impossible to understate how ugly Friday’s NFP report was once one looks past the fabricated, propagandized “headline” number.  Recall, we all but guaranteed “higher than expected” job creation and a “lower than expected” unemployment rate; as this was the last NFP report before the mid-term elections.  However, we qualified such “optimism” with the usual warning to beware of the internals – which as usual, couldn’t be worse. Apparently, not only are part-time and temp jobs now con
Monday, October 06, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Housing “Recovery” – RIP
According to the MSM, yesterday’s equity plunge was due to the Russians considering counter-sanctions against the West.  I mean, how pathetic can the propaganda get – as if such actions, if indeed taken would “surprise” anyone?  Alternatively, any financial professional would look at charts like this one – depicting dramatically higher valuations then even the 2000 mania peak – and run for the hills, no matter what the Russians were doing.  To boot, amidst the weakest global economic backdrop an
Friday, September 26, 2014
Bill Downey - Commodity Trader
Important medium term cycles in gold coming in play in September
INTRA-DAY NEWSLETTER ~ Sept 9 2014 Gold Daily Report ~ Sept 9, 2014 Trend Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Medium Term ~ Neutral– The failure on gold’s part to close above the moving averages on a monthly basis (March, April, May, July, August) has left the downside open to lower Price potential. Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need a close back above 1306 for neutral. Short Term ~ Bearish- Gold cycles due to turn next week. In
Tuesday, September 09, 2014
FOFOA - FoFOA
Six!
Six years ago today, I started this blog as a tribute to something I'd only discovered three months earlier. The fact that I'm still at it six years later speaks to the depth of the material I had only glimpsed when I started. I once started another blog on a different subject and lost interest after only a couple of months. I do tend to lose interest easily. In college, I changed majors and colleges several times, and after college I changed careers twice. Six years on one subject, for me, is r
Monday, August 25, 2014
Jeffrey Lewis
Monetary Versus Political Stability - When Day Turns into Night
Wherever plunder is less burdensome than labor, it prevails; and neither religion nor morality can, in this case, prevent it from prevailing.- From Bastiat's "The Law"Representing all things big, institutional investors believe there is no inflation.The market "behaves" as if there is none. This undercuts value at risk.But reality is very different. Across the board, price is determined by a broken system fueled by an unsound economy. (The developing Ebola pandemic may serve as an example and a
Tuesday, August 19, 2014
Ty Andros - traderview
Useful Idiots and the Something For Nothing Society - Part III of IV 
The greatest man made societal and economic collapse in history is unfolding before our eyes. This Journey to the collapse of the developed world's civilization and empire began over 100 years ago during the Presidency of Woodrow Wilson with his subversion/betrayal of the constitution of the United States and creation of a privately owned banking and currency monopoly called the Federal Reserve and the creation of the income tax to fund the beginning of the Confiscationism of the pro
Saturday, August 16, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Need Or Want, Demand Is Dying
Here’s all you need to know – starting with today’s COMEX gold and silver options expiration.  Trust me, it’s no “coincidence” that we witnessed the 56th “Sunday night sentiment” raid of the past 57 weeks and 267th “2:15 AM” attack of the past 301 trading days. Moreover, TPTB are still reeling from Friday’s rare “key upside reversal” in the PM markets – and more importantly, the Treasury yield plunge that further solidified the “most damning proof yet of QE failure”; i.e., the inexorable decline
Monday, July 28, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
Historical Norms
“HISTORICAL NORMS” Following last week’s soon-to-be-infamous Yellen quote that “price equity ratios and other measures (of stock, bond, and real estate valuation) are not outside historic norms,” I thought I’d do a bit of thought-streaming – starting with what an “historical norm” refers to. Since this blog focuses principally on financial topics – and specifically, money – “historical” can refer to trends going back to the dawn of man. As a leading Precious Metals purveyor, Miles Franklin has b
Monday, July 21, 2014
Andy Hoffman - Miles Franklin
The Absolute Peak Of Lunacy
The Absolute Peak Of Lunacy Let’s start by simply getting the “pink elephant” out of the way. Yesterday’s PM “drive-by shooting,” on essentially the lowest volume trading day of the year, represents an act of desperation as urgent as any we’ve seen to date. In the past month, whilst gold and silver were rising sharply from powerful “triple bottom” formations, the Cartel was naked shorting a nearly unprecedented $20 billion of COMEX futures out of shear panic – culminating in yesterday’s “mystery
Wednesday, July 16, 2014
Eric Coffin - Hard Rock Analyst
There's Something Happening Here 
Gold made the move I hoped for and predicted in the last issue. It's consolidating well above May price levels now. Traders will want to see a couple of more steps up in price to really get on board but the tone of the market has definitely improved again since early June. Significantly, base metals have also shown a lot of relative strength in the past few sessions. It's been a long time since we have seen the whole metals complex on the move.
Friday, July 11, 2014
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