| |
 | Adam Hamilton - Zealllc |
| Fed Hikes, Dollar, and Gold |
| The
US dollar has fallen rather sharply over the past year or so,
despite ongoing Fed rate hikes. This persistent dollar weakness has
really boosted gold. There’s a fascinating interplay between these
two currencies and futures speculators’ expectations for Fed rate
hikes. These traders hang on every word from top Fed officials,
which greatly influences their trading. So these relationships are
important to understand.
In
late December 2016, the venerable UFriday, March 2, 2018 |
|
 | Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| Bonds and Related Market Indicators |
| For Notes From the Rabbit Hole bonds are not just an asset class ‘throw-in’ but instead are a key indicator set to the entire modern macro. Insofar as it may be time to use them for portfolio balance (I am currently long SHV, SHY, IEI & IEF), so much the better. Many could not wait to buy bonds during US ZIRP global NIRP operations, but today they pay better interest and have a contrarian edge with the entire herd bracing for a bear market.We claimed appropriately bearish on bonds on December 4tMonday, February 26, 2018 |
|
 | Przemyslaw Radomski CFA - SunshineProfits |
| The End Is Near |
| The doomsayers have been calling for recession for years. Mainstream economists laughed at them, painting a rosy picture. However, the recent plunge in the stock market strengthened the pessimists’ hand. They interpret the dive as a signal of a coming recession. Is the end of the stock market boom really near?
What Lies Ahead?
The recent stock market turmoil brought traders to their knees. We, of course, covered the descent for our readers, calling for calm. We urged investors not to panic aboutTuesday, February 20, 2018 |
|
 | James Howard Kunstler |
Party On, Dudes  |
| As of this week, the shale oil miracle launched US oil production above the 1970 previous-all-time record at just over ten million barrels a day. Techno-rapturists are celebrating what seems to be a blindingly bright new golden age of energy greatness. Independent oil analyst Art Berman, who made the podcast rounds the last two weeks, put it in more reality-accessible terms: “Shale is a retirement party for the oil industry.”
It was an impressive stunt and it had everything to do with the realitSunday, February 11, 2018 |
|
 | Rory Hall - The Daily coin |
| CryptoRuble Draft Bill in Russian Parliament: Not Decentralized, Not Private, 100 Cashless |
| As we have been saying the bankers will not allow the absolute source of their power to be taken without a major fight. We have also been screaming the whole “bitcoin” and cryptocurrency scene that has developed over the past year or so was by design and part of a much larger “assimilation program” to get as many eyes as possible on cryptocurrencies as to create a global conversation. Well done!! Worked like a charm.
Way back in August 2016 we were one of the first alternative news sources that Wednesday, January 31, 2018 |
|
| Adam Hamilton - Zealllc |
| Gold Upleg Breaking Out |
| Gold’s strong upleg accelerated this week, powering to major new
breakout highs. Speculators rushed to buy gold futures following
surprising weak-dollar comments from the US Treasury Secretary,
which hit the US dollar hard. That boosted gold to critical
technical levels that should really intensify the shift back to
bullish psychology. This mounting gold breakout confirms gold’s
bull market is very much alive and well.
While this week’s surge put gold on many moFriday, January 26, 2018 |
|
 | Deepcaster |
| Profiting in 2018 (Part 2) |
| DEEPCASTER LLCFORTRESS ASSETS PORTFOLIO | LETTERS, ALERTS & ARTICLESHIGH POTENTIAL SPECULATOR | HIGH YIELD PORTFOLIOPreserve & Enhance WealthInvestment & Geopolitical IntelligenceUnfortunately, as we demonstrated in Part 1 and further demonstrate below, the underlying Economic Reality was and still is that the Economy is not healthy and not recovering which is obvious when one looks at the Real Numbers per Shadowstats.com (Note 1) rather than the Bogus Official Ones.So, our focus in this Part2 iThursday, January 25, 2018 |
|
 | Jim Willie CB - Hat Trick Letter |
Silver as a Strategic Metal and Why Prices Will Soar  |
| The arguments in favor of silver as an investment asset are growing rapidly. In the opinion of the Jackass, silver is the most under-valued hard asset in existence, with the highest potential for price appreciation on the globe. To begin with, central banks own no silver, but do own huge tracts of gold. Industry has huge demand for silver, but a trifling amount for gold demand. The investment demand is another key factor in favor of silver, but also for gold. Ever since the tech telecom bust in Sunday, January 21, 2018 |
|
| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| The Macro View: Amigos Ride On |
| As symbolized by the 3 Amigos, the macro backdrop is riding on to its destiny. That forward destiny is a top in stocks vs. gold (Amigo 1), a rise in long-term interest rates to potential if not probable limits (Amigo 2) and an end to the yield curve’s flattening trend (Amigo 3).When our zany friends complete the journey, big changes are likely in the macro markets.Let’s take a checkup on each Amigo and consider some implications as well.Amigo 1: Stocks vs. GoldUsing the S&P 500 as an example, stFriday, January 19, 2018 |
|
| Adam Hamilton - Zealllc |
| Gold Bullish on Fed Hike 2 |
| Gold
has been battered lower in recent months as gold-futures speculators
fled in dread of the Fed-rate-hike boogeyman. As universally
expected, the Fed’s 5th rate hike of this cycle indeed came to pass
this week. When gold didn’t collapse as irrationally feared, the
cowering futures traders were quick to start returning. Past Fed
rate hikes have actually proven very bullish for gold, and this
latest one will be no exception.
Back
in early September, gold waSaturday, December 16, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| The Fed's Lies Are Going to Cost Investors A Fortune in 2018 |
| The Fed claims we’re not in a bubble.
This, like the Fed’s claims inflation is too low, is hogwash.
As I outline in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble: The Endgame For Central Bank Policy, the reality is that the Fed’s entire monetary focus is on papering over declining living standards in the US.
Since 1971, real incomes are down. This fact stares us in the face: before that time, one parent worked and most families got by, today both parents work and rely on debt to get by. Indeed, the Thursday, December 14, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| The Process Through Which the First Major Central Bank Goes Bust Has Begun |
| In the aftermath of the Great Financial Crisis, Central Banks began cornering the sovereign bond market via Zero or even Negative interest rates and Quantitative Easing (QE) programs.
The goal here was to reflate the financial system by pushing the “risk free rate” to extraordinary lows. By doing this, Central Bankers were hoping to:
1) Backstop the financial system (sovereign bonds are the bedrock for all risk).
2) Induce capital to flee cash (ZIRP and NIRP punish those sitting on cash) andMonday, December 11, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| Bubble Watch: The Everything Bubble is Riskier and Less Liquid Than Housing |
| As we keep emphasizing, the world is in an Everything Bubble.
In truth, it is a bubble in sovereign bonds, created by Central Banks attempting to corner these markets via ZIRP and QE.
However, because sovereign bonds are the bedrock for the current fiat financial system, if they go into a bubble, EVERYTHING goes into a bubble.
Why?
Because if you skew the “risk-free return” of the financial system (US sovereign bonds or Treasuries) ALL risk will adjust accordingly.
Case in point, consider the lThursday, December 7, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| 2018 Will Be When Central Bank Policy Crashes Into the Wall |
| The bubble in sovereign bonds is looking dangerously close to popping.
And ironically, what could burst it is the very thing Central Banks have been pursuing aggressively for the last 9 years: inflation.
As I explain in my bestselling book The Everything Bubble, Treasury yields adjust to account for inflation. The relationship is not perfect as bonds are also priced based on economic activity. However, the fact remains, if the rate of inflation spikes, Treasury yields rise as well to account forTuesday, December 5, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| Bubble Watch: US Margin Debt Now Equal the Economy of Taiwan |
| When Central Banks attempted to corner the sovereign bond market via ZIRP and QE, they forced ALL risk in the financial system to adjust lower.
Remember, in a fiat-based monetary system such as the one used by the world today, sovereign bonds NOT gold are the ultimate backstop for the financial system.
And for the US, which controls the reserve currency of the world, sovereign bonds, also called Treasuries, represent the “risk-free” rate of return for the entire world.
So when the Fed moved to cFriday, December 1, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| Central Banks Finally Hit Their Targets... Just In Time For Another Crisis |
| They finally did it.
Since 2008, Central Banks have been desperately trying to generate inflation.
They know they cannot produce growth (hence why both the Fed and the ECB abandoned this as a goal in their statements back in 2013)… so they have chosen to “target” inflation.
To that end, Central Banks have maintained Zero Interest Rate Policy (ZIRP) as well as Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP) for the better part of eight years. They’ve also printed over $14 TRILLION in new capital and funneleTuesday, November 14, 2017 |
|
| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| At the Junction of Risk 'On' and Risk 'Off' |
| By Gary Tanashian[edit] As I do the actual work of plowing through NFTRH 472 I am noting some non-bond related indicators in line with the fading Junk/Quality ratios and easing Treasury yields noted in this post. If preliminary hints in these indicators intensify and long-term yield breakouts fail, we may get a market reaction of some kind and lurch to risk ‘off’ sooner rather than later. Most market charts remain straight up bullish. But charts are charts and indicators are a whole other animalSunday, November 5, 2017 |
|
| Gary Tanashian - Biwii |
| The Big Macro Play Ahead |
| By Gary TanashianAt NFTRH, we are about major macro turning points above all else. Of course, it is often years between these turning points or points of significant change so we are also about the here and now, and managing the trends, Old Turkey style.*Since we are all learning all the time, I have no problem admitting to you that while right and bullish on commodities and stocks in 2009, after becoming bullish on the precious metals in Q4 2008, I completely ignored Old Turkey due to my inner Saturday, October 28, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| Forget the Balance Sheet Reduction, Focus on the Next Round of QE |
| Let the farce begin.
The Fed meets today to discuss whether or not to begin shrinking its balance sheet. The financial media informs us that this is the single most important Fed meeting in years and that its coming announcement is a game-changer.
Give me a break.
The Fed will NEVER let its balance sheet shrink to a relatively normal level. The simple fact is that the ENTIRE move in the markets since 2008 has been induced by the Fed and other Central Banks creating a bubble in bonds.
This bubblThursday, September 21, 2017 |
|
| Graham Summer - Gains Pains & Capital |
| When This Debt Bubble Bursts, Central Banks Will Turn to Money Printing... Again |
| Let’s face the facts.
The only reason the financial system has held together so well since 2008 is because Central Banks have created a bubble in bonds via massive QE programs and seven years of ZIRP/NIRP.
As a result of this, the entire world has gone on a debt binge issuing debt by the trillions of dollars. Today, if you looked at the world economy, you’d find it sporting a Debt to GDP ratio of over 327%.
Well guess what? The REAL situation is even worse than this. The Bank of International STuesday, September 19, 2017 |
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