– Oxford Scientists Cite “Global System
Catastrophe” Among 12 Plausible Threats To Civilization
- “Global System Catastrophe” More Of A
Possibility Than Most Western People Suspect
- Study Described As A “Scientific Assessment
About The Possibility Of Oblivion”
- Other Threats Include Nuclear War,
Environmental Degradation, Geological Events and Out of Control Technology
Recent research undertaken by scientists in Oxford
University to identify possible threats to human civilisation has identified
“system-wide failures caused by the structure of the network” as one of
twelve major threats.
Global economic collapse, artificial intelligence and
nanotechnology have been named alongside nuclear war, ecological catastrophe
and super-volcano eruptions as “risks that threaten human civilization” in a report by the Global Challenges Foundation.
The world’s economic and political systems face
systematic risks because of their intricate and interconnected natures. The
researchers say more work needs to be done to clarify what parts of the
system could collapse and destroy western civilization.
The authors of the study say it is about “how better
understanding of the magnitude of the challenges can help the world to
address the risks it faces, and can help to create a path towards more
sustainable development.”
The foundation was set up in 2011 with the aim of funding
research into risks that threaten humanity, and encouraging more
collaboration between governments, scientists and companies to combat them.
Apart from failure of the systems of civilization the
report also looks at the threats posed by the following:
- extreme climate change
- nuclear war
- global pandemic
- major asteroid impact
- super volcano
- ecological catastrophe
- synthetic biology
- nanotechnology
- artificial intelligence
- future bad global governance
- unknown unknowns
The impact of human activities on our environment is the most pressing
problem according to the study.
The report warns that ‘extreme climate change’ could lead
to a nightmare scenario of famines, mass deaths, social collapse and mass
migration igniting global conflict as civilization crumbles.
Cheery stuff !
We are not of the Armageddon persuasion and do not think
the end of the world is nigh. However, we are of the view that economic
collapse is possible given the unstable and unsustainable nature of our
modern global financial, monetary and economic system.
Any of the risks outlined in the report could be the
‘Black Swan’ that leads to a new economic depression and a collapse of the
‘House of cards’ financial system and economy.
There are many environmental risks challenging us today.
These include soil erosion and degradation, depletion and destruction of
marine life, the collapse of the bee population – the pollinators of our food
supply.
With all the focus on and with politicians and talking
heads touting their “green” credentials by continuously talking man made
global warming – a movement which has taken on a religious zeal as proponents
aggressively defend a scientific model most do not understand – other, more pressing,
environmental risks loom unappreciated.
Fukushima is still spewing radioactive material into the
Pacific. Fish stocks are being drastically depleted through over-fishing.
Creatures upon which we do not directly rely are going extinct at a rate of
up to 200 species every day as we annihilate anything that stands in the way
of our pursuit of blind economic growth.
Processes that took millions of years of natural
selection to hone are being tampered with as genetically modified organisms
are forced into the biosphere with no understanding of the long term
consequences.
The report discusses the possibility of somebody
intentionally creating an “engineered pathogen” to wipe out humanity.
The risks posed by potential geological events such as an
asteroidal impact or a mega-volcano are not understood by most people living
today. Because our planet is covered with water and dense vegetation the
scars of asteroid collisions are not immediately visible.
However, one look at our pock-marked moon through a telescope
shows us that – in terms of the vast span of time in which our solar system
has existed – such events are quite frequent.
Indeed, geological evidence has been emerging in recent
years suggesting that the earth experienced such an event only 13,000 years
ago, causing tsunamis and a 300-ft rise in sea-levels due to melting ice
caps. This may be the origin of the flood stories that crop up in mythologies
all over the world.
A similar event today, with a comparable rise of
sea-levels, would destroy most of our cities which are located on the coast.
It would have a devastating effect on our interconnected civilization.
The dust cloud that would enmesh the atmosphere as a
result of an asteroidal impact or a mega volcano would contribute to global
cooling and this, in time, would cause food shortages, famine, pestilence and
instability.
The global pandemics of history – bubonic plague, small
pox and “Spanish” flu – all thrived in scenarios of food scarcity. The major
waves of plague in the “dark” ages were proceeded by periods where crops
failed due to lack of sunlight. These periods of dullness are believed to
correspond to volcanic activity.
Smallpox festered in the squalid western slums during the
industrial revolution. Bernard Shaw, who wrote about that plague
contemporaneously, was of the opinion that social programs which improved
nutrition and sanitation, rather than vaccines, led to the eradication of the
disease.
The “Spanish” flu broke out in 1918 helped along by the
malnutrition and deprivation of the first world war. It infected 500 million
people all over the world killing up to 100 million – 5% of the global
population.
Today, we see pandemics occurring still in Africa, the
poorest region in the world. As author Terence McKenna suggested – in
many parts of the world – the Apocalypse that western Christians anticipate
is actually occurring right now.
While in the West we have access to good sanitation, our
nutrition is lacking. We have more food but much of it is of low quality. We
have epidemics of our own – diabetes, obesity, cancer. Our capacity to
withstand a new plague is debatable.
The report also deals with artificial intelligence
exterminating humanity in much the same way as we treat species less
intelligent than ourselves. It touches on nanotechnology and how
theoretically it could be used to make pocket-sized nukes.
With regard to a system failure the report says:
“The world economic and political system is made up of
many actors with many objectives and many links between them. Such intricate,
interconnected systems are subject to unexpected system-wide failures caused
by the structure of the network”.
The risks to our existing system for acquiring the things
we need and the means to conduct such transactions has been well documented
on this blog. Cyber-terrorism and cyber-warfare have
the the potential to collapse our monetary system and our supply chain
causing panic and shortages of the necessity of life.
The currencies of overly-indebted nations are also at
risk. Given that, for the most part, currencies have no intrinsic value and
are backed only by confidence – what happens when people lose faith in their
governments, central banks and those currencies?
Will the farmer in the Philippines accept a
hyper-inflating currency in exchange for his rice or will he demand something
more tangible? What happens to our access to energy in such a scenario?
We would be more reliant on indigenous agriculture and
industries as imports would fall dramatically. The cost of fuel to run these
industries would likely make such industries unsustainable as the income and
savings of the target customer is greatly reduced.
These would be short-term consequences but the political
ramifications of such an event could lead to all kinds of chaos,
authoritarianism and war.
These are interesting topics to contemplate. There is
nothing on the list that human ingenuity is not capable of dealing with. What
is lacking is the will.
For now, we have a short-sighted unsustainable economic
system run by short-sighted, opportunistic corporations and governments.
All very cheery stuff !
