A Brief Word on Forecasts
Each year between December 25 and January 1, every blogger, analyst,
newsletter guru, or market historian like me issues their
"forecast" for the upcoming year, and what I find a worthy exercise
is to go back and read what we all wrote in the same manner that, as a youth,
I used to track the meteorological forecasts of the famous CBC weatherman,
Percy Saltzman.
The one thing that has struck me over the years is that forecasting
markets is rarely much different than the trackman's picks at Woodbine Race
Track or the Vegas line on football games or Percy's chalkboard alchemy
deciphering rain clouds. Even when forecasts of economic or financial events
are correct, particularly in the years following the 2008 Great Financial
Bailout, the outcomes have been skewed at best and bizarre at worst. To watch
as trillions of dollars, pounds, euros and yen were magically created out of
thin air while the two monetary metals were prevented from levitating through
government edict is a clear and present danger to the art of prognostication.
So take this missive with a large grain of salt and try to find amusement
or value in it, but as the graphic below clearly indicates, forecasting
markets is an inexact and difficult science.
Eleven bogus market crash calls over six years
Stock Market Outlook: As we close out the final few trading
sessions of 2018, I want you all to observe what I was looking at this time
last year when I wrote my 2018 Forecast entitled "2018: The Year of Living Dangerously," in
which I gave these closing remarks:
"With the Internet now a massive source of investment knowledge,
opinion and deception, you will soon be reading voluminous tomes of 'Get rich
quick!' e-mails designed to liberate you from your hard-earned savings and
critical investment capital. The quote I inserted above is really all one
needs to know about asset prices in the years ahead. The Fed will have a new
chairman in 2018 and the critical question is 'Will the punchbowl be drained
in 2018?' For the past nine years, there has been an injection tube feeding
the financial punchbowl with all manner of fiscal and monetary stimuli, which
has kept all bank collateral (real estate, stocks, bonds) afloat despite
massive debt and swamping entitlements obligations. The Fed has stated that
this tube is now shut off as the tightening cycle has begun.
"However, if inflation rears its ugly head and it causes civil
discontent, the tube will not only be removed, the plug at the bottom of the
bowl will be removed and the contents allowed to drain. Food prices, rents
and healthcare will be the barometer by which policy pitchforks and torches
are trotted out, so keep your seatbelts securely fashioned in the New Year
and stay alert. Draining punchbowls do not permit rising stock markets
and rampant speculation.
"2018 will be an interesting year."
Well, 2018 was indeed an extremely interesting year. as that
heavily telegraphed but even more heavily ignored punch bowl-draining by
Jerome Powell has finally ended the longest bull market in history, with the
S&P closing out Christmas Eve down over 20% from its Oct. 3 zenith of
2,929.86. In case you didn't get the memo, we are now officially in a
bear market, and because this bear has been hibernating with not so much as
one decent correction since February's 11.68% warning shot, he was an
enraged, starving Papa Bear. What people are ignoring is that in the past
eleven weeks he has enjoyed one massive gluttonous feast on the carcasses of
shell-shocked "BTFD"-ers. While this bear was bulging-eyed ravenous
on Oct. 3 from years of neglect, for the past eight weeks (save last week's
PPT stick save) he devoured everything in his path and is ready for a brief
respite from his engorgement, perhaps a nap for a fortnight or so as he
prepares for his next Millennial Meal.
The reason for my sudden newfound bullishness lies in these two charts.
The first takes us to the end of January of 2018, when RSI has spent
literally the entire month in a plus-70 overbought condition before getting
tagged in early February. Sentiment was at an absolute extreme and while I
was certain of an impending downside reversal, I played it through
volatility, and on Jan. 16 began to scale into the UVXY below $10 with a
target of $30. Less than ten trading days later, I exited, a tad early, but
averaged the mid-$20s. Fast forward to December, and as the second chart
clearly shows, conditions are today a virtual carbon-copy opposite of those
of eleven months ago. So, if conditions were screaming sell last
January, they are most certainly screaming buy, perhaps less loudly
today than on Christmas Eve, but still a solid buying opportunity on a retest
of the lows around 2,351 on the S&P.
Now, before you take what room you have left on your credit lines and load
up with your favorite FANG, understand that this year may see a tax-related
downside phenomenon occur, where longer term investors still sitting on
terrific gains from the 2009 meltdown are awaiting the end of the fiscal 2018
trading period to book their long-term capital gains, which involves a lower
tax rate in the U.S. The ideal entry should be after Dec. 27 for those brave
enough to take the plunge.
As an aside, please do not think for a moment that a 150-point (or so) pop
in the S&P 500 would qualify as a "bottom" because the singular
most violent of all upside moves occur within the context of bear market
rallies. Greed-fueled "hopium" is infectious and it forces
investors to panic into positions fearing that they are going to miss
the bottom. It isn't until the last bull capitulates and swears to never
buy another stock ever that real investable bottoms arrive, and I
assure you they do not happen two days or two weeks after a new bear market
has just been pronounced. That being said, I should urge caution because in
the New Era of Interventions, anything is possible, as we saw on Boxing Day.
Commodities Outlook
Gold: You all recall the late August "Back up the Truck" call on gold (and silver), after
I correctly interpreted the Aug. 16 reversal as the low at $1,167, and
then added silver a few days later in the $14.50 range. It was a fitful start
to what I think is a longer-term move to $1,400 gold and $28.00 silver. But
after grinding back and forth with annoying frequency, silver has finally
punched out through the $15.00 ceiling and quickly taken the
Gold-to-Silver-Ratio (GTSR) from 87 on Monday to 84.22 this morning.
As I have written about for the past thirty years, you simply cannot trust
any gold rally where the gold miners (GDX, GDXJ) and silver (SLV)
underperform. They should lead the advance and by default, the GTSR should be
declining. Until lately, we had not seen silver do anything close to
outperforming, but what we have seen is the gold miners (HUI) put on a
blistering performance versus both gold and silver, up 11.57% since the end
of August.
However, on Boxing Day the silver market closed up 1.86% versus gold's
late-day reversal decline of 0.16% and that is the type of
outperformance badly needed to fuel the advance.
This next chart shows how well the gold miners have done when measured
against the spot price. The gold miners have been outperforming bullion since
mid-September but must continue this outperformance to avoid non-confirmations
(to gold's advance), which always bring out the bears.
Tactics: I have elected to own physical gold plus the GLD April
$120 calls at $4.30 for added leverage. I am going with two exploration
juniors, Getchell Gold Corp. (GTCH:CSE) and Stakeholder
Gold Corp. (SRC:TSX.V), plus one discovery junior, Great
Bear Resources Ltd. (GBR:TSX.V; GTBDF:OTC), as my proxies for gold
ownership. I particularly like GTCH for reasons mentioned in previous
missives and which can be revisited here (report) and I am adding to SRC because of the upcoming
drill program in Nevada by Seabridge
Gold Inc. (SEA:TSX; SA:NYSE.MKT) on the Snowstorm property situated
adjacent to SRC's Goldstorm property. This could be a serious tailwind for
SRC as we move out of winter.
Silver
2019 is going to be the year silver outperforms gold, copper and the
mining stocks. It has been under enormous pressure from secondary supply
sources, the bulk of which is byproduct deliveries from the big base metal
miners. After the 2016 peak above $20, silver went into total
"lockdown" with the bullion bank behemoths, acting under the guise
of "hedging," opening massive open interest in CME futures and
smothering all forms of momentum, sentiment and upward movement. Only until
the Justice Department indicted JP Morgan for manipulating the silver market
a few months ago did it at least "appear" as though the shackles
had been finally broken. Needless to say, silver is cheap relative to gold
and cheap relative to the S&P and cheap relative to credit so one must
surmise that it has to be owned—period.
Tactics: While physical silver is my favorite way to play this
metal, I have owned the SLV (iShares Silver Trust [ARCA]) April $13 calls
from mid-November, when I advised purchases over a three-day period and
averaged $1.00 per contract as an average price. As we close out the year,
they are currently $1.65 and I have a target price of $10 by expiry on April
18. Also added to the list is Coeur
Mining Inc. (CDE:NYSE), originally recommended in December in the $4.25
range; this stock was above $8.00 in July and was north of $16 during the
first upleg of this bull market in 2016. I will carry a Q1/2019 target of
$8.00 and use a $3.95 stop-loss. Silver is my odds-on favorite of all the
metals for 2019.
Uranium
The uranium outlook is based largely on the elimination of excess supply
created in the immediate aftermath of the Fukushima incident seven years ago.
Seeing as uranium has been in a long and agonizing bear market since then, I
decided in 2016 to look into the industry because the one thing that leaps
off the page for uranium stocks is that when the price turns up, they
absolutely rocket.
In 2016, I was introduced to the founder of U.S.-listed Energy Fuels Inc.
(UUUU:US), George Glasier, who was then and is now the founder and CEO of Western
Uranium & Vanadium Corp. (WUC:CSE; WSTRF:OTCQX), a Colorado-based
uranium/vanadium developer whose primary asset is the Sunday Mine Complex
(SMC), located in Nucla, a uranium-friendly area of the state. By assisting
them in raising money, I was forced to do a great deal of research on the
uranium industry, and because there exists a large vanadium resource at the
SMC, it also shifted my focus to the shifting landscape for this little-known
"battery" metal, whose primary use lies as a hardening agent in
steel production.
With new Chinese regulations calling for increased minimum hardness for
steel used in the construction industry, China went from a net vanadium
exporter to a net importer in the stroke of a legislative pen. With end users
thrown into a frenzy, the vanadium price peaked just under $35/lb in November
before correcting to under $20 in December. Nevertheless, with a 75 million
pound uranium resource and a 35 million pound vanadium resource, the in situ
metal value of the SMC resource is approximately $2.9 billion. When compared
to WUC's $27.2 million market cap, the valuation case for investment is
compelling. To own any company at less than 1% of its resource value is
usually a wise move and I decided to do exactly that.
Because the Sunday Mine Complex is going to be immediately accretive to
any acquirer due to the impact of the upcoming Section 232 investigation
petitioned by a couple of domestic producers, acquirers of WUC could pay up
to U.S.$100 million for WUC and secure a U.S.-based supply source for a metal
increasingly strategic to American security interests. The existing
infrastructure at the SMC is all in place, and as the company has announced
intentions to reopen the complex in the New Year, the vanadium ore could be
available for sale and shipping in early 2019.
I am not expecting WUC will be around to enjoy the upcoming lift in
uranium prices because it will be acquired by another entity in desperate
need for vanadium or feed for an existing mill currently operating well below
capacity. With a 52-week high at $3.32, the current $1.50 level appears to be
a reasonably attractive entry point.
Tactics: Buy WUC/WSTRF in the CA$1.50/US$1.20 range with a stop at
CA$0.95/US$0.70. Target: US$3.40
The last trading week of the year has been incredibly volatile, with Dec.
26 and 27 recapturing about 150 S&P points. I was going to write that I
expected stocks to be higher over the next thirty days but that was at
2,351.10 on the S&P 500 on Christmas Eve, before the Plunge Protection
Team (PPT) came riding in on Boxing Day on a huge white stallion.
All around the social media world, there were polls asking whether Trump
would fire the Treasury Secretary or the Fed Chairman first. Big N.Y. money
then went to work and pounded out the largest one-day advance in history,
with the Dow flash-spiking over 1,000 points with the algobots all short and
going totally berserk in the final hour. See from the charts shown at the
start of this missive that a bounce from ridiculously oversold conditions was
overdue, with the RSI for the S&P under 20. CNBC was forced to change its
scripted narrative, and after broadcasting Mnuchin's "PPT call" all
weekend, they changed their story to credit "Pension Fund
Rebalancing" as the reason for the turnaround. The PPT-fueled updraft
saw the RSI nearly double, but still left the S&P down 9.12% for the
month and that was after the late-week rebound. It would seem that intervention
interference in "free market capitalism" is alive and well.
Tactics: Avoid buying anything until we get the retest of S&P
2,351. If I see 2,550 next week, I will be looking to buy puts. If instead we
see a retest of the Christmas Eve lows, I will issue an alert via email or
Twitter. (@MiningJunkie
)
Base Metals
The base metals (ex-batteries) will be slave to the trade war rhetoric and
until clarified, I am avoiding them with a special aversion to copper.
Tactics: The ProShares Ultrashort "basic materials" ETF
is the inverse or bearish vehicle for shorting the base metals. While I am
not including it in the model portfolio, the SMN April $35 calls at $3.40 are
a speculative trading suggestion for the risk-oriented punter.
No matter what happens next, remember that all bear market bottoms will
demand a secondary retest, so since I was a fraction too late in making the
"go Long for a trade" call on Christmas Eve, I am convinced that we
are in the very, very early stages of what history may prove to be the
Grandfather of all Bear Markets. That is not to say that stocks can't
trade sideways for a while. But based on the RSI reversal last week (19 to 41
in three days), the time to be net short has past, at least for the next few
weeks.
Tonight I am typing in the wee hours of the 'morn and quite content to
tell you all that after forty-one years as a financial person and forty-four
years as a stock market investor, I have never been more certain that
the world and its entitlement-driven masses are going to be soon screaming
for a global currency benchmark. It won't be the tinfoil hats you see at all
the newsletter pumpathons warning you of impending social chaos; I was first
exposed to that in 1976 with Harry Schultz. It is going to be a demand
by the masses for a return to fiscal sanity by all nations in order to
restore the sanctity of the work ethic.
To have non-elected government officials traveling executive class
drinking complimentary champagne and arguing with the flight attendants over
their "right to a meal of my choice" is worthy of the same fate
endured by Marie Antoinette and her elitist intelligentsia. I made money in
markets over the years based upon my ability to understand causation and
predict reactive outcomes. In the "Knives and Bearskins" era of the
1970s, I would pore over the Standard and Poor's index cards, and once I had
a balance sheet or income statement that looked extraordinary, I would either
buy or short the company's stock and be fully prepared to take my lumps if my
assessment of future performance was faulty. Since 2009 (and many would argue
long before that), the markets have behaved in a most unusual manner. Stocks
no longer respond to news but rather to the tape action; fundamental
causation is now dead.
We "old folks" have been left largely behind by a new wave of
tech-savvy Millennials that watched their grandparents go virtually bankrupt
by plunging their savings into gold and silver in response to the
credit-creation, money-printing orgy of the post-2008 meltdown. These
youngsters saw through the charade of intervention and government-sponsored
fraud post-2008, and instead created their own "safe haven" in the
form of cryptocurrencies. While it is true that I called the top in Bitcoin
in 2017, I was nowhere near as smart as these kids who embraced its
introduction at penny-pricing levels somewhere around 2009 by a Japanese
computer whiz called Satoshi Nakamoto. If you had mined 1,000 Bitcoin units
as a response to the bankster-driven bailouts of 2009, your cost base would
have only been "labor," and if you were lucky enough to have sold
it in 2017 at the December top, your "labor" would have yielded
$19,891,000. These kids took the Dot.Com
Model of the late '90s and they perfected it to the point where CNBC was
flashing the BTC price minute-by-minute late last year right beside the Dow,
S&P, and NASDAQ!
So, with the cryptojunkies now neutralized and the potheads in full
retreat, it is my expectation that 2019 will see a return to true, full and
plain discovery of price. The terms "price discovery,"
"transparency" and "integrity" are three of the most
important assumptions upon which investment decisions are made. If there is
any hope of avoiding a devastating outcome for portfolios in 2019, it will
lie in the restoration of those three attributes for not just the stock market
but for all markets where public participation is present. Interventions must
be eliminated from all markets where the malodorous misallocation of capital
has gone unpunished and where market mayhem is encouraged to run amok. If you
believe as I do that the moral hazards created by the Great Financial
Bailouts of 2009 (and beyond) have yet to be expunged, then the only place to
be is in the monetary metals, where physical possession avoids confiscation
and corruption.
Cutting directly to the quick, here is what I own going into 2019 with the
idea being the establishment of the model portfolio. In 2019, I am offering
an informational service that will allow subscribers (US$799 per year) to
access changes to the portfolio as well as short-term trading ideas (such as
the VIX, S&P, and junior exploration trades) via my GGM Advisory e-mail
alerts. Please forgive the brazen solicitation of your hard-earned after-tax
dollars but please remember that the taxman considers investment publications
as legitimate business expenses. Also, when you look at the January 2018 VIX
trade where I rode 5,000 UVXY from around $10.00 to $25 in eleven trading
days, a 100-share position would have alone paid for the service more than
twice over.
I wish everyone out there a very Happy New Year and deserved prosperity,
health and peace of mind in 2019.
[NLINSERT]
