who like nightmares:
Is No Longer a Land of Opportunity"
(Joseph Stiglitz, Financial
is at its highest point for nearly a century. Those at the top – no
matter how you slice it – are enjoying a larger share of the national
pie; the number below the poverty level is growing. The gap between those
with the median income and those at the top is growing, too. The US used to
think of itself as a middle-class country – but this is no longer true.
Living in a ‘Modern-Day Depression’: David Rosenberg" (Yahoo!
notably the cycle watchers at ECRI, believe the U.S. economy is definitely
heading for another recession (or already there), Gluskin
Sheff's chief economist and strategist David
Rosenberg goes a big step further.
living in a modern-day depression," he declares.
statement is based on several factors, including the record number of
Americans living on Food Stamps — 46 million or 1-in-7 in 2011. Because
these benefits are now given in the form of electronic debit cards, we don't
have bread lines like in the 1930s, but they are there in virtual form. And
that's just the most obvious form of government support for its struggling
transfers to the personal sector now makes up nearly one-fifth of total
household income," Rosenberg writes. "Even Lyndon Johnson,
architect of the 'Great Society', would blush at that."
The World's Top Executives Are Losing Faith In The Economy" (Business
just published the finding of its global survey of executives, and it shows a
startling downturn in sentiment about the direction of the economy.
Back in March,
45 percent of respondents expected the economy to improve moderately over 6
months. Now, that number is down to 19 percent. The number
that expect it to do moderately worse is up to 42 percent.
the Blindside Recession" (Hussman Funds Weekly Market
months, our measures of leading economic pressures have indicated the
likelihood of an oncoming U.S. recession. Our view is based on the analysis
of leading/coincident/lagging indicators (see Leading Indicators and the Risk
of a Blindside Recession) as well as more statistical signal processing
methods that extract "unobserved components" from noisy data (see the
note on extracting economic signals in Do I Feel Lucky?). As Lakshman Achuthan at the ECRI
has noted on the basis of different but related evidence, the verdict has
been in for a while. The interim has been little more than waiting for the
coincident data to catch up to the leading evidence that is already in place.
This wait is by
no means over. As Achuthan has observed, economic
data such as GDP and employment data are heavily revised over time. Very
often, the first real-time negative GDP print occurs about two quarters after
the recession actually begins. It is only later that the data are revised to
show an earlier downturn. For that reason, it's important to pay attention to
the joint action of numerous economic data points, rather than selecting any
specific indicator as an "acid test." The joint evidence suggests
that the U.S. economy has entered a recession that will later be marked as
having started here and now.
Nation Too Scared to Quit" (New
More than 1
million fewer Americans a month are quitting their jobs than before the
aren’t supposed to be falling during a recovery. During a recession,
sure: With poor prospects of landing a good new job quickly, people hesitate
to voluntarily leave.
opposite is supposed to happen in a recovery: People sense opportunity, and
they chase it. (The rebound is especially strong after longer recessions, as
people who’ve been putting off quitting finally decide it’s safe
to bite the bullet.)
Yet now we have
a “recovery” where Americans have grown even more fearful about
quitting their jobs.
Michael J. Panzner