Given group-think and the determination of policy makers to
do ‘whatever it takes’ to prevent the next market ‘crash,’ we think that
the low-volatility levitation magic act of stocks and bonds will exist
until the disenchanting moment when it does not. And then all hell will
break loose, a lamentable scenario that will nevertheless present
opportunities that are likely to be both extraordinary and ephemeral.
– Highly regarded hedge fund manager, Paul Singer, in his latest investor newsletter
Singer has apparently has unloaded $5 billion worth of stock, which is 15% of his funds management.
Anyone happen to notice that several market commentators have argued
that Bitcoin is a bubble but the same stock “experts” look the other
way as the U.S. stock market becomes more overvalued by the day vs. the
deteriorating underlying fundamentals? Bitcoin going “parabolic”
triggers alarm bells but it’s okay if the stock price of AMZN is
hurtling toward parity with the price of one ounce of gold. Tesla burns a
billion per year in cash. It sold 76,000 cars last year vs. 10 million
worldwide for General Motors. Yet Tesla’s market cap is $51.7 billion
vs. $48.8 billion for GM.
This insanity is the surest sign that the stock market bubble is
getting ready to pop. If you read between the lines of the the comments
from certain Wall Street analysts, the
only justification for
current valuations is “Central Bank liquidity” and “Fed support of asset
values.” This is the most dangerous stage of a market top because it
draws in retail “mom & pop” investors who can’t stop themselves from
missing out on the next “sure thing.” There will be millions of people
who are permanently damaged financially when the Fed loses control of
this market. Or, as legendary “vulture” investor Asher Edelman stated on
CNBC, “I don’t want to be in the market because I don’t know when the
plug is going to be pulled.”
A friend/colleague of mine is a point and figure chart aficionado. He
sent me an email on Thursday in which he said even with the five
horsemen (FANGs + AAPL) and the SPX and Dow up today (and the SPX
setting a new all-time high), the bullish percent index (BPI) of the
NYSE is negative which means there are more stocks generating a point
and figure sell signal than a buy signal. This has been fairly
consistent over the past couple of weeks. (Note: the bullish percent
index is a breadth indicator based on the number of stocks on point
& figure buy signals). When the BPI is negative over an extended
period of time, it reflects the fact that a lot more stocks in the NYSE
are trending lower than are trending higher. When a declining number of
stocks are participating in the move higher of a stock index, it is a
bearish signal.
As my friend says, “in reality this will continue until it doesn’t.”
He goes on to say: ” what this shows me is that at this time it’s much
better to be strategically short than broadly short. This will change
too at some point…”
Picking out strategic shorts has been the focus of the Short Seller’s Journal.
Not all of the ideas have worked and a couple back-fired – in defiance
of the company’s underlying fundamentals – but many ideas are well below
the price at which they were presented either the first time or
presented again thereafter. One idea that has declined 39% (declined
$42) since August 2016 is Ralph Lauren, which was presented on August
14, 2016 at $108.19. It closed Friday at $66.11, down 41 cents on a day
when the SPX hit another all-time high. RL has closed lower on 12 of the
last 13 days.
One subscriber emailed me earlier this week to let me know he had
shorted 200 shares at $108 and covered 100 of it this week. He’s hanging
on to the other 100 share short. I mentioned to him that my 12-18 month
target was $50 and that he should hold the other 100 short at least
until August because it’s only going to get worse for the consumer and
retailers.
Currently there’s a a large percentage of stocks trading below their
50 and 200 day moving averages. Many stocks are close or at 52-week
lows. Some stocks, like Sears Holdings (SHLD) are no-brainer shorts.
Sears is going to file for bankruptcy – it’s down 32% from April 2nd,
when it was presented as a short idea in the Short Seller’s Journal.
Similar to the probability of a stock market crash, it’s a matter of
“when,” not “if.”
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Dave Kranzler spent many years working in various Wall Street jobs. After business school, he traded junk bonds for a large bank. He has an MBA from the University of Chicago, with a concentration in accounting and finance, and graduated Oberlin College with majors in Economics and English. Dave has nearly thirty years of experience in studying, researching, analyzing and investing in the financial markets. Currently he co-manages a precious metals and mining stock investment fund in Denver and publishes the Mining Stock and Short Seller Journals. Contact Dave at dkranzler62@gmail.com.
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The author is not affiliated with, endorsed or sponsored by Sprott Money Ltd. The views and opinions expressed in this material are those of the author or guest speaker, are subject to change and may not necessarily reflect the opinions of Sprott Money Ltd. Sprott Money does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, timeliness and reliability of the information or any results from its use.
