Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench
Gold & Silver Prices in

Alternative Reality

IMG Auteur
Published : March 29th, 2012
527 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 2 votes, 5/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : Crisis Watch

 

 

 

 

According to the head of America's largest and most profitable bank, it's onward and upward for the U.S. economy:


"JPMorgan’s Dimon Says U.S. No Longer Faces Risk of Recession" (Bloomberg)


JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon said the U.S. may no longer be at risk of another recession and the housing market is nearing the bottom.


Huh? Were there any facts involved in that assessment? Take, for example, Mr. Dimon's initial remark that "the U.S. may no longer be at risk of another recession." The following chart indicates otherwise:




(Hat tip to Business Insider.)


Then there is Mr. Dimon's claim that "the housing market is nearing the bottom." According to the real estate site Trulia, that is likely far from the truth:


"Are We There Yet? Trulia’s Housing Barometer" (Trulia Trends)


Trulia's Chief Economist takes a monthly look at new construction starts, existing-home sales and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate to see how far away we are from a normal housing market.


On the long road of housing recovery, we’re all kids in the back seat wondering: are we there yet? After years of bad news about the housing market, it’s hard to remember what “normal” looks like.


This month Trulia kicks off the Housing Barometer, a quick review of three key monthly indicators of housing recovery: new construction starts (Census), existing-home sales (NAR), and the delinquency-plus-foreclosure rate (LPS). For each indicator, we checked how bad the numbers got at their worst, and then looked even further back in time, before the bubble, to remind ourselves what “normal” looked like. We’re not trying to predict what the new normal will be in the future – we’re just eyeballing the past in order to put this month’s housing data into context.


Here’s what the February data, released last week, show:


— Construction starts: 22% of the way back from their low in Apr 2009 toward their normal level.


— Existing home sales: 47% of the way back from their low in Nov 2008 toward normal.


— Delinquency + foreclosure rate: 32% of the way back from their high in Jan 2010 toward normal.


To get to a single number that’s easy to remember and track over time, we just average these three percentages together. If all three indicators were at their worst, the barometer would be at 0%; if all were back to normal, the barometer would be at 100%. The February 2012 data puts us at 34%: in other words, the housing market is one-third of the way back to normal.


So, are we there yet? No. We still have a long way to go. How long will it take us to get there? Using the same method and measures, one year ago the market was 16% of the way back to normal, which means we’ve ticked up 18 points in the past year. If we continue to drive at this same pace of 18 points a year, we’ll get from 34% today to 100% in late 2015. Kids, sit tight…it’s going to be awhile.


No need to be concerned about reality, I guess, when you are a member of the TBTF contingent.


Michael J. Panzner 


 

 


<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :5 (2 votes)
>> Next article
Michael J. Panzner is a 25-year veteran of the global stock, bond, and currency markets and the author of Financial Armageddon: Protecting Your Future from Four Impending Catastrophes, published by Kaplan Publishing.
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
Republicans Craft the Next Great Healthcare Failure
28 JunJ.-1
Peter Schiff's new nick name, The Nail Gun, 'cause he nailed it over and over again. Blam, blam, blam.... Every point, spot on. The last two...
Leaked Police Report: There Are 23 Muslim-Controlled “No Go Zones” ...
25 Junkevthorne1
I do not know how anyone could take an article like this seriously. It is garbage of the worst kind. 'Anonymous sources' 'unidentified leaks' - not...
Bitcoin in Perspective: Bill Gates Worth More, Gold 200 Times More
22 JunDavid C.2
Yes Mish, but bitcoin and the wealth and debt burdens of the world are fully backed by electrons which are very light. Unlike that 68 ft glob of m...
Bitcoin in Perspective: Bill Gates Worth More, Gold 200 Times More
23 JunDynoman0
Valuable potential is what's currently offered by digital currencies. It makes absolute sense to have a global digital economy based upon borderles...
Absent Without Leave
21 JunS W.
Bail ins for sure. It was agreed at the G20 in Brisbane. You are not really a share holder. You are an unsecured creditor to the bank a...
Absent Without Leave
19 JunJ.3
Perhaps all the international shenanigans are the smoke and mirrors intended to obfuscate the view of the looming financial catastrophe. When the ...
Gold Price Cuts Post-UK Election Loss, ETF Investors Sell, Nasdaq D...
16 JunSam Maher
"the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSEArca:GLD) – saw its sharpest liquidation since March in the week-ending Thursday, with shareholders cutting the fund's si...
Things To Come
13 Junkevthorne3
If voting for 'parties' actually made a difference they would have not legalised it. Since 1914, it's been the supply of currency that has governed...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS