The energy markets are tanking and are at levels that have not been seen since "The
Recession" of 2009. Opinions are divided on the effects of the fall. Some say
it is good for consumers, whereas, others say it is bad for the global economy.
This article will analyze the overall effects of low crude oil prices on the
industry, the major oil-producing nations, consumers and the overall global
economy. The severity of the fall can be seen in the chart below.
Top 10 crude oil producers which are being affected:
A glance at the charts of the top 10 crude oil producers shows the clear shift
from Saudi Arabia to the US, as the largest energy producer in the world.
An analysis of the top producers of oil gives us a clear picture of the effects
of this fall on the global economy. Does the drop in price have far-reaching
effects, which may lead to geopolitical tensions in the world? Is the power
to decide the pricing shifting from the hands of the OPEC nations, for the
first time in decades? Are the low prices laying a base for a much larger uptrend
in the future?
Effects of low crude oil prices on the US economy:
The US is both the largest producer, as well as the largest user of crude
oil, in the world. Domestic supply caters to 50% of the daily needs, and the
other 50% is imported, from around the world. The production from the US Shale
wells have increased rapidly, in the last few years, and the industries associated
with shale oil are being crushed.
Shale oil drilling is unprofitable at these levels:
The boom in oil prices, and an improvement in fracking technology, has led
to a rapid growth in the number of shale oil wells. However, according to various
reports, most of the shale oil wells are profitable only when priced above
$60/barrel. Some of these companies have taken large loans, in order, to expand
their production, and with prices remaining low, these loans are likely to
become unserviceable. A failure of the companies with heavy loans is likely
to strain US Banks, which have loaned the monies to said companies. Along with
the crude oil producers, the associate industries ie: the equipment suppliers,
the hotel industry, the truck companies, etc. are also struggling, due to a
decline in prices.
With many drillers cutting costs, unemployment within this sector is on the
rise, and wages are either stagnant or being reduced. New investments are being
postponed. Associate companies, which supply to the oil producers, are slowly
going "out of business". As the US economy is very diverse, the overall impact
is not alarming, however, US States that are dependent on the shale oil drilling,
will almost certainly take a hit.
Advantage to the Consumers and the Auto Industry and the Airline Industry:
Auto and airline industries are welcoming the drop in prices. Consumers, also
have more disposable income to spend for their holiday shopping this year,
due to lower gas prices at the pumps. According to Goldman Sachs, US households
have around $150 billion to spend this year, due to the fall in crude oil prices.
If the price remains low, the domestic consumer will become the beneficiary!
Deflation:
The FED is struggling to increase the inflation figures to around 2%, but with
low energy prices, fears of deflation are ever increasing.
Effects of low crude oil prices on the Russian economy:
Russia is another major exporter of crude oil in the global economy. The high
price of crude oil during 2009-2014, assisted them in recovering from the crisis.
However, with oil prices 'tanking', the Russian economy is now struggling.
According to bbc.com, oil and gas contribute 70% of the export income for Russia.
Every dollar drop in the price of crude oil impacts the Russian economy by
$2 billion worth of losses.
With the Russian economy struggling, due to low crude oil prices and Western
sanctions, it raised its interest rates to 17% this year, in order to stem
the run on the Ruble. Refer to: chart of the Russian interest rate as shown.
If the oil prices continue to stay low, Russia will struggle with its federal
budget, since it mainly depends on the profits of crude oil. Some believe that
President Putin is likely to resort to actions which will divert the attention
from his struggling economy, and thus create geopolitical tensions in the world
wide.
Effects of low crude oil prices on OPEC:
OPEC consists of twelve countries that produce 40% of the world's crude oil
demand. Saudi Arabia has been the leader of the OPEC nations and its change
in production has significantly impacted the price of crude oil. For the first
time in years, it looks like Saudi Arabia is losing its status as the decision
maker of crude oil prices in the world. The divergence in price and the increase
in production of crude oil, by Saudi Arabia in 2015 in the chart below is an
indication of its declining power as price and their production have moved
together in the past.
The recently concluded meeting of OPEC, on December 4th, 2015, showed the
divide among the OPEC nations. The smaller nations like Algeria, Venezuela
and Ecuador are all reeling under the effects of low crude oil prices, and
their efforts to force a ceiling on the total production was rejected. Though
Saudi Arabia has strong foreign reserves, which can support its economy and
aid in pumping oil at these low price rates over a long time, it too has begun
to feel the pain. The Saudi stock market is down 27% from its high of this
year.
Lower oil prices can lead to a crisis in the middle east region similar to
2010:
The international rating agency of Stand & Poor's reduced the sovereign
rating of Saudi Arabia by one notch in October 2015, with a negative outlook.
Stand & Poor's expects Saudi Arabia to have a budget deficit of 16% of
its GDP, in 2015. There are unconfirmed reports of an internal power struggle
of the throne, in the oil-rich nation. Any power struggle in the Kingdom of
Saudi Arabia is likely to destabilize the entire Middle East region.
The Study of the price needed by various countries in order to balance budgets:
The chart below clearly shows that the current price of crude oil is not favorable
to most of the nations. Many are bleeding heavily, due to the lower oil price
and are struggling to fund their budgets. It won't be long before the chinks
in the armor of the weaker nations will begin indicating whether prices remain
low, for a long time.
Low crude oil price is not a negative for all countries:
Oil importing countries like India, Japan, China, and some Western European
countries have actually benefited from lower crude oil prices. China has been
a major net importer of crude oil in recent years. With the Chinese economy
slowing down, a fall in crude oil prices will help by increasing its foreign
exchange reserves. However, only a fall in crude oil may not be sufficient
enough to prop up the Chinese economy. For a few countries, like India, the
fall in crude oil prices is good news, as it will help them control their current
account deficit.
Another Crisis in the making:
However, the major ill effect of this fall has been the fears of deflation
in Japan, Europe and the US. The ECB, the FED, and the BOJ are all struggling
to bring inflation to around 2% so as to avoid deflation, but thus far they
have failed. If prices remain low for a considerable period of time, it may
lead to another crisis with deflation at the core.
Conclusion:
Saudi Arabia likely wants to keep the price down so the US Shale producers
to go "out of business". However, the US Shale production has been resilient
so far. Russia is also at its highest output and Iran is expected to increase
its output in the coming months and therefore, many oil-dependent countries
are finding it difficult to handle their budgets. The strain among the countries
taking opposing sides was evident during the recently completed OPEC meeting
on December 4th, 2015.
If price remains low for too long, it is sure to cause geopolitical tension,
lead the economies of Europe, the US and Japan towards deflation. Oil producers
will have to cut production, in the future, as the low price is unsustainable
in the long-term. When this starts to occur crude oil price will find a bottom.
I will keep you updated regarding the time to enter oil, for long-term gains
in the future. But until then follow my analysis and forecast.
