Close X Cookies are necessary for the proper functioning of 24hGold.com. By continuing your navigation on our website, you are accepting the use of cookies.
To learn more about cookies ...
EnglishFrench

Bear Raid in the Metals? - Front Running Sharks with Lasers

IMG Auteur
Published : November 15th, 2012
529 words - Reading time : 1 - 2 minutes
( 3 votes, 3.7/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
FOLLOW : Gold, Silver

 

 

 

 

Metals plunged along with stocks in reaction to a worse than expected Philly Fed reading of -10.7. What was unusual was that the plunge preceded the official release by twenty minutes.

November 2012 Business Outlook Survey

Firms responding to the November Business Outlook Survey reported declines in business activity this month following the disruptive effects of Hurricane Sandy on the region. The survey’s indicators for general activity, which had shown improvement in October, fell back into negative territory this month. Firms reported slight declines in shipments, employment, and hours worked. Indicators for the firms’ expectations over the next six months were near their levels in the previous month, but expectations for future employment and capital spending have weakened in the last two months.

Indicators Suggest Diminished Activity

The survey’s broadest measure of manufacturing conditions, the diffusion index of current activity, decreased 16 points, to a reading of ‑10.7. The fallback of the general activity index followed a single positive reading in October that was preceded by five negative monthly readings (see Chart).

Nearly 32 percent of firms reported declines in activity this month, while 21 percent reported increases. The demand for manufactured goods, as measured by the current new orders index, declined 4 points from last month and remains in negative territory.

Shipments also fell this month: The current shipments index fell 7 points, to ‑6.7. Declines in inventories were also more widespread this month; 31 percent of firms reported declines compared with 21 percent in October.





As one might expect, the sharp drop in activity was related to the effects of Hurricane Sandy. I have been expecting this, but I did not know that the Philly Fed survey would pick it up so quickly.

What was initially confusing was that stocks began to decline sharply around 9:35 AM. Gold had a waterfall plunge from 1722 to 1705 from 9:35 to 9:45. I had already completed the initial post of this before the Fed report hit the news.

The Philly Fed was officially released at 10:00 AM. I have not discovered if it was officially released prematurely, or if the markets were just front running the data for a quick 'wash and rinse.' They would suspect that the data would be a 'miss' because of the devastating effect of the hurricane on the region.

In the long run markets are a discounting mechanism, but in the short term they are a pinball game, especially in these days of large leveraged players and lax regulation.

So I think it was either a leak, or a 'trading idea' shared amongst several of the trading desks, or a bit of both. The revolving door also has an intercom.

I had the opportunity to add to a growing silver position. I am sure the wiseguys did much the same. I was not prepared for it, just lucky to be watching it as it happened.

We may wish to bear in mind the knock on effect of Hurricane Sandy on subsequent economic report for the fourth quarter. The devastation on this most populated region of the US was profound. The data will no doubt provide fresh opportunities to game the markets.

Knowledge is power.




 

 

Companies Mentionned : Am Gold | Metals X |
<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :3.7 (3 votes)
>> Next article
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
First Report since April, 2014
05 FebAndy_K
Jason, One of your articles written way back is one of the reasons I started paying attention to silver and shortly thereafter started to ...
Something has Changed in Gold St...
06 Febneville
No nothing strange has happened in GOLD stocks....absolutely nothing.....The fact of the matter is that you byrne have been playing the man and...
The Revisionist Theory and Histo...
05 Febovertheedge
"The key is in the hand of the U.S. government. It is the same key that was used to lockthe U.S. Mint to silver in 1873, and to gold sixty years la...
First Report since April, 2014
05 FebS W.
Here I was just 2 days ago thinking whatever happened to that evangelical silver guy. Low and behold up he springs, like some spirit from the g...
LBMA Silver “Price”: A Perfect S...
03 FebS W.
There is no doubt that the Comex can be used as a casino for those who want to trade Silver up/or down or maybe some just wish to take a small punt...
LBMA Silver “Price”: A Perfect S...
30 JanOzSILV1
Bron refuses to EVER admit this market is a Casino and the disconnect between Paper and Physical is a big clue to this
LBMA Silver “Price”: A Perfect S...
30 JanS W.
Usually I enjoy Bron's take on things,but to be perfectly honest, I can't understand 95% of what he his on about here. I get the feeling that h...
ANOTHER NAIL IN THE U.S. EMPIRE ...
30 JanDemosthenes0
Very naive and pretentious article! The author thinks he knows everything and yet knows next to nothing. Shale gas producers are neither stupid n...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS
Mining Company News
Lara Expl.(Cu-Zn-Au)LRA.V
Revised Resource Estimate Report Filed for Maravaia Copper Gold Deposit
CA$ 0.34+1.47%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Black HillsBKH
Black Hills reports 4Q loss
US$ 50.90-0.59%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Kinder Morgan(Oil)KMP
Midstream Companies Were above the 20-Day Moving Averages
US$ 102.03+1.98%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Kinder Morgan(Oil)KMP
Midstream Companies Were above the 20-Day Moving Averages
US$ 102.03+1.98%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Devon Energy(Ngas-Oil)DVN
Gasoline Inventories Rose Last Week despite Fall in Production
US$ 24.85-6.44%Trend Power :
Corporate news
United States Steel(Fe-Sn)X
U.S. Steel (X) States Ratification of Labor Agreements
US$ 7.94-3.64%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Black HillsBKH
4:34 pm Black Hills Corp beats by $0.04, misses on revs; guides FY16 EPS below consensus
US$ 50.90-0.59%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Black HillsBKH
Black Hills Corp. Reports 2015 Fourth Quarter and Full Year Results
US$ 50.90-0.59%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Transcanada PipelinesTRP.TO
TransCanada to Sign Substantial Agreement to Benefit Québec Economy
CA$ 48.65+0.16%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Devon Energy(Ngas-Oil)DVN
4Q15 Crude Oil Prices: Fallout for the Energy Sector and SPY
US$ 24.85-6.44%Trend Power :
Corporate news
Comments closed