Gold Report ~ Jan 25 2015
Trend
Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1255 to bring attention to the medium term trend. Two weekly and a monthly close above 1141 would upgrade the trend from bearish to neutral.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– The intermediate term is in neutral mode for the most part but a close above 1114 flips the trend to bullish.
Short Term ~Bullish- Any close above 1114 extends the trend. Any close below 1072 reverses the trend to down.
Initial Resistance 1107-1114 2nd tier 1122-1132
Support 1082-1092 2nd tier 1065-1075
OPTIONS EXPIRATION for Feb gold ends after Trading on Tuesday Jan 26th. Thus we’re going to find out this week if gold can move and sustain above 1100. The shackles will be released, and now its up to gold.
Also, rollover out of Feb Gold and into April will take place on the futures markets.
On Wednesday, minutes of the FOMC will be released. Keep a watch for that also as a potential price mover in gold.
What about the Stock Market?
The correction thus far has reached the deepest level of long term uptrend support at the moving averages and trend line. Here is where the stock market should try and bounce and it may be underway from last week’s low. The long term averages are at 16030 – 16700. A monthly close below 15900-16000 is the next step as to whether we get a continued selloff. Watch January’s close to see if it’s above 16000. As we arrive in February, the US stock market is at critical levels. It has not yet broken the long term uptrend. But on this next Chart.........
Dow Quarterly Chart
On Dec 31st we posted this chart on Twitter. It gave a long term sell signal on the quarterly chart. Since then a correction has taken us to the chart above. Monthly closes below 15300 would be add to the bearishness already witnessed. Odds favor that a rebound at these levels will take place, but we doubt if the carnage is over in stocks.
What about interest rates?
Interest rates have at this moment moved to neutral on a long term basis. But the real decision continues to be put off as rates keep hitting off the grend trend line. We have completed a Fibonacci 34 years of lower rates. Odds favor that higher rates are in our future. Odds also favor that it will be due to FEAR and not global growth.
Higher rates should be bullish for gold. Perhaps not right away, but certainly once the trend gets established higher. There is no other chart more important as one that shows the COST OF MONEY - for it sets the pace of everything else. As we arrive In February, the long term trend for rates has yet to turn up.
What about Commodities?
The chart shows we are at the most important of all support points. Below this area warns of Global Depression.
What about Gold?
Gold is nearing the Edge of the Wedge, but it still can have one final low in March/June 2016. If gold is to turn up in 2016, odds favor that it needs commodities to turn up also.
Gold Short term
The chart below shows the key area we need to move above (1107-1114) in gold in order to favor higher towards 1121-1131 or 1141-1146. Support is 1088-1094 and then 1072-1082 for this week. IF we can close above 1114, odds favor moving higher into month end and 1st week of February.
