Bond Market Reaction to Housing

In light of the highly-touted strength in new home sales with prices at record highs, one might have expected US Treasury yields to soar. Let’s take a look at what did happen.

No Reaction

Rate Hike Odds Drop

Big Yawn

In addition to the bond market letting out a big yawn, rate hike odds did the same. In fact, they declined slightly from 53.2% to 48.7%.

The Global Macro Monitor blog via ZeroHedge blames the Incredible Shrinking Relative Float Of Treasury Bonds and central bank manipulation for falling yields.

Manipulation is certainly present, but the Fed stopped padding its balance sheet long ago. And it’s pretty clear the key decision-makers at the Fed want to hike.

Thus, it’s a big mistake to discount the idea of a weakening economy as the primary reason yields are falling even if the absolute level of yields is in serious question by manipulative actions.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock