Bond Tantrum II: Mortgage Rates Up 80 Basis Points Since July

In the summer of 2013, in an incident widely referred to as incident as the “taper tantrum”, the bond market threw a hissy fit over a Fed announcement that the Fed would taper QE purchases.

In late 2013, the Fed gave the market what it wanted, and rates reversed.

Now, on news the Fed is finally serious about hiking rates, the bond market has thrown another tantrum, with mortgage rates as well.

Yield Curve 1998-Present

The current tantrum does not match the severity of 2013.

As of last Friday, the 30-year yield was 3.01% and the 10-year yield was 2.36%, both well under the 2013 highs.

Mortgage Tantrum

Chart courtesy of Mortgage News Daily, anecdotes mine.

Despite treasury rates being substantially lower than the peak in 2013, mortgage rates are well into tantrum territory.

Other than the taper tantrum, rates are higher than they have been since September of 2011.

This will likely kill the refi market. Higher interest rates will also impact home affordability numbers.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock