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We follow up on our essay on gold and the dollar
collapse from December 4, 2012. In that essay, we speculated what could
happen with gold if the U.S. defaulted on its debt in real terms. Today, we
describe possible scenarios in the opposite case where the greenback is not destroyed in spite
of excessive debt.
The “imminent” collapse of the dollar has
been spoken of years now. Since 2008 this talk has been fueled largely by
consecutive rounds of quantitative easing (QE). With QEs at $2.25 trillion
and counting, the number of borrowed dollars is hitting new highs and
it’s no wonder that the ability of the U.S. to sustain such programs in
the future is being questioned.
As we discussed in the above-mentioned essay, it is
possible for the U.S. to default on its obligations. Not default in the
technical sense of the word but in a more intuitive sense. Let’s
explain that. All the U.S. obligations (bonds, treasury bills etc.) are
denominated in dollars. So, the U.S. government is to repay its debt in a
pre-specified amount of dollars (currently $16.37 trillion). If you consider
the fact that the authorities have the sole right to print dollars, it
becomes obvious that, at the end of the day, they can simply print money to
cover any debt outstanding. This is unlikely, and would have disastrous
consequences for the economy, but it’s possible. In such a scenario all
the debt would be paid off, but the money the creditors would get would be
worth near to nothing. This is what we call a default in real terms. Precious metals investors are holding on
to gold as a hedge against such a possibility.
The common misconception, already pointed out, is that
the collapse of the dollar is “imminent,” “sure” or
“certain.” It’s not. Just as nobody knows what will happen in the future, nobody can say that
the dollar will collapse for sure. And, even if somebody is personally quite
convinced that the dollar is heading for the gutter, there’s absolutely
no certainty when this will happen.
Even though the number of borrowed dollars has never
been higher, current debt levels in relation to GDP are not at their
historical highs. As of 2011, the U.S. debt to GDP ratio stood at 98.1%. The
chart below shows that, in terms of debt, the U.S. economy has already been here.
 
In 1946, one year after the end of WWII, the debt to
GDP ratio stood at 121.3%, its highest historical level so far. Obviously,
the economic conditions after WWII were quite different than the conditions
we have today, but the point is that in the past the U.S. economy was able to
recover from enormous debt levels. It is still possible that it will recover
from all the debt the QEs have been amassing.
The implosion of the dollar and the global currency
system is not imminent. Can anyone – with 100% certainty – rule
out the case in which the countries around the world agree to inflate all
currencies gradually until the debts are mostly erased? Or – again with
100% certainty – can anyone say that nobody will come up with a
solution that would not lead to U.S. dollar’s destruction?
If the widely discussed collapse of the dollar never
materializes, in spite of the current debt levels, can it still be a good idea to hold on to gold? It can,
particularly if you consider that we are in a bull market and there are no
clear indications that this market is to end any time soon. What is more, we
haven’t seen a pronounced phase of exponential growth in prices, nor have
we experienced the craze of the third stage of the bull market when everybody
and their brother would jump at the opportunity to buy precious metals. We
provide some comparisons in the chart below.
The yellow line represents the price of a troy ounce of
gold between 1980 and 2012. The solid red line is the price of gold during
the 1980 top ($850) corrected for
the official U.S. inflation numbers and the dashed red line is the same price
corrected for inflation numbers as they would have been calculated prior to a
change in the methodology of inflation calculation (accidentally, this change
coincides with the 1980 top). In other words, the solid red line shows you
how expensive gold would have to be to buy you the same things it bought in
1980 if you followed official data. The dashed line shows you how expensive
gold would have to be if you took into account unofficial data.
As of the end of November 2012, according to official
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, gold
would have had to trade at $2,527.24 to match the 1980 top. It traded at
$1,719.00, which could imply that if the top were to be seen in the nearest
future (very unlikely), gold could shoot up by 47.0%.
Taking a look at the unofficial data, gold would have
to appreciate to $9,548.34 to be
able to buy you the same amount of goods it did in 1980. Compared to the
price of $$1,719.00 (end of November 2012), this would mean an appreciation
of 455.5% (!). The target of $10,000 without the collapse of the dollar seems
far-fetched, but even if the unofficial numbers exaggerate the inflation, and
the latter has been so far somewhere between the official and unofficial
numbers, this would mean a possible price for gold beyond $2,500.
If the bull market continues throughout the next years
and plays out similarly as the previous one without the collapse of the
dollar, we see the gold-going-to-$2,500 scenario as a worst case one and the
gold-going-to-$10,000 as a possibility. $2,500 might be a worst-case scenario
because:
- The longer it takes for the bull market to end,
the higher the nominal target will be (because of the inflation).
- The bull market of 1980 was limited to the U.S.
and Western Europe. Right now, there is a much broader audience to
participate in the bull market. For instance, countries from Central and
Eastern Europe, as well as China and India.
- Technological advances have made the information
flow considerably easier than in 1980. It is easier now to enter the
market quickly. To reverse one’s position is just a matter of
seconds or minutes rather than hours, which suggests that the volatility
and price moves in the end phase of the bull market, may be substantial.
In short, if the
1980 top is anything to go by, then even if there’s no dollar collapse
ahead of us, it still may be a good idea to be invested in precious metals.
Thank you for reading. Have a great and profitable
week!
Przemyslaw
Radomski, CFA
Founder, Editor-in-chief
Gold & Silver Investment
& Trading Website - SunshineProfits.com
This essay
concludes our two-parter on gold and the U.S. dollar. If you haven’t
read the first part on gold and the collapse of the dollar yet, you
can do so now. Also, if you’ve read both essays and wonder what kind of
approach would allow you to get your portfolio ready for both of the
scenarios (the dollar collapsing and not), please read our piece on gold and silver portfolio structure.
* * *
Disclaimer
All essays, research and
information found above represent analyses and opinions of Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and
Sunshine Profits' associates only. As such, it may prove wrong and be a
subject to change without notice. Opinions and analyses were based on data
available to authors of respective essays at the time of writing. Although
the information provided above is based on careful research and sources that
are believed to be accurate, Przemyslaw Radomski, CFA and his associates do not guarantee the
accuracy or thoroughness of the data or information reported. The opinions
published above are neither an offer nor a recommendation to purchase or sell
any securities. Mr. Radomski is not a Registered
Securities Advisor. By reading Przemyslaw Radomski's, CFA reports you fully agree that he will not
be held responsible or liable for any decisions you make regarding any
information provided in these reports. Investing, trading and speculation in
any financial markets may involve high risk of loss. Przemyslaw
Radomski, CFA, Sunshine Profits' employees and
affiliates as well as members of their families may have a short or long
position in any securities, including those mentioned in any of the reports
or essays, and may make additional purchases and/or sales of those securities
without notice.
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