Capital flight from one Eurozone country to another, continues to rise.
That capital flight is a measure of trust of of a nation’s banks.
Capital flight is ongoing in Spain, Italy, Greece, France, and Portugal in
that order. The recipient countries are Germany, Luxembourg, Finland, and the
Netherlands in that order.
Some charts and tables will help provide a clear picture.
Data for the following charts and tables is from ECB Target Balances, a measure of capital flight. Neither
the ECB nor Eurozone officials likes to discuss these numbers for obvious reasons.
The ECB-generated chart below shows Target2 changes over time. However,
tracking 20 lines by colors is more than a bit problematic.
Here is the ECB’s chart with my annotations in blue. My charts and tables
follow.
Target2 Balances Over Time
February Target2 Balances
The above chart shows where the money is coming and going, and by how
much.
Cyprus actually has the 5th largest positive balance (thanks to capital
controls and forced bail-ins). A few other countries have positive balances,
and there are other countries with smaller negatives.
Monthly Changes in Billions of Euros
|
Country
|
Symbol
|
Jan Target2
Balance
|
Feb Target2
Balance
|
Month-Over-Month
Change
|
|
Spain
|
ES
|
-248.26
|
-263.16
|
-14.9
|
|
Italy
|
IT
|
-251.26
|
-249.53
|
1.73
|
|
Greece
|
GR
|
-94.62
|
-95.21
|
-0.59
|
|
Portugal
|
PT
|
-60.46
|
-66.90
|
-6.44
|
|
ECB
|
ECB
|
-92.02
|
-98.16
|
-6.14
|
|
France
|
FR
|
-42.05
|
-68.08
|
-26.03
|
|
Germany
|
DE
|
587.00
|
605.01
|
18.01
|
|
Luxembourg
|
LU
|
145.92
|
147.45
|
1.53
|
|
Netherlands
|
NL
|
60.63
|
58.59
|
-2.04
|
|
Finland
|
FI
|
45.85
|
72.41
|
26.56
|
|
Cyprus
|
CY
|
2.55
|
2.32
|
-0.23
|
Aggregate Changes
|
Feb Sum of
Positives and Negatives
|
Jan Sum of
Positives and Negatives
|
Month-Over-Month
Change
|
|
-841.04
|
-788.67
|
-52.37
|
|
+885.78
|
+841.95
|
+43.83
|
Comments
- The six-country negative sum for February is -€841.04
billion.
- The five-country positive sum for February is +€885.78
billion.
- Since the numbers total zero, the rest of the imbalance
is spread out over the remaining eurozone countries.
- In the last month, another +€52.37 billion fled the
deficit entities to creditor countries.
Note the ECB itself sports a negative balance to the tune of -€98.16
billion. I don’t have an explanation for precisely how this happens.
Those needing a further explanation of Target2 may wish to consider Discussion of Target2 and the ELA (Emergency Liquidity
Assistance) program; Reader From Europe Asks “Can You Please Explain
Target2?”
The key point is the deficit banks and countries are insolvent. German
taxpayers are going to bear the brunt of this mess when it implodes.
Mike “Mish” Shedlock
