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Central banks around the globe
have joined the gold rush, as the World
Gold Council's latest report makes clear. This is especially true of the central banks of
rapidly growing emerging countries. Up until the third quarter, the central
banks of Russia, China, Thailand and Mexico increased their gold reserves
six-fold in comparison with the same period last year, which amounts to a
total increase of 148.8 tonnes.
In comparison with the previous
quarter, central banks around the world have increased their gold purchases
by 114%, with emerging economies in particular looking to sell part of their
US dollar reserves. Even though the US dollar registered some gains last
week, more investors around the world are becoming dollar-sceptics.
Global investors are
increasingly afraid of systemic risks and imbalances affecting economic
relations. Many observers fear the outbreak of a global currency war as
financially stricken countries try to debase their currencies in order to
obtain trading advantages. In this context, markets are focusing on the US.
It seems that an increasing number of market participants do not believe that
the US is following the necessary strategies to keep a strong currency. The
country's economic problems are too big, with the unemployment rate remaining
stubbornly high. US president Obama has repeatedly said that from now on the
US has to concentrate on creating jobs in the exports sector. In order to do
this, it needs a currency that is internationally competitive.
Therefore, many market
participants expect the US Federal Reserve (Fed) to start a third round of
quantitative easing (QE3). Through renewed bond purchases the Fed would
inject more electronically generated money into the financial system. But a
large sum of this new money would probably flow into the rapidly expanding
markets of the emerging countries, since these regions offer much higher returns
to investors than the US or Europe. This could be one of the reasons why
central banks in emerging countries such as China, India or Russia are
quickly increasing their gold purchases. The communist government of China
has been repeatedly warning the US government and the Fed to not extend its
bond-purchasing programme if they didn't want China
to take protectionist measures against the flood of capital threatening to
inundate Asia.
Should the US end up
implementing QE3, this would probably lead to the expansion of protectionist
measures on a global scale. Both the creation of new money by the Fed and the
disruption of international trade relations will probably benefit the gold
price in the future. Investors will continue to flee to safe havens such as precious
metals or other tangible assets – a point of view also shared by the
latest WGC report.
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