Abstract
Government has been a voluntary system of mutual protection, which requires
rules and administration. Unfortunately, these provide the means whereby the
ambitious can impose control. Society evolved constitutions intended to curb
such ambition. But over the last hundred years both the unwritten constitution
of England and the written one of America have been bypassed by the greatest
experiment in authoritarian government in 400 years. The last example climaxed
in the early 1600s. The previous example in the third century turned Rome into
a murderous police state.
Beyond state murder, the common feature has been that there was enough wealth
to fund the expansion of the bureaucracy, which went unlimited until all the
money was gone. It is as simple as that; unlimited government requires unlimited
funding. But the purpose of this paper is to review the "banners" inspiring
the intrusion as well as the "planning" that enables it.
And then there have been the popular uprisings that have reformed control
freaks. The provocation has been arrogant governing classes living well and
the public not living as well. In each previous example, the fascination has
been the moment of discovery that the authoritarian experiment is over. Examples
date back to dynastic changes in Ancient Egypt.
Follies of Central Planning
Above all, intrusion by central planners must have an appealing banner. Rome
used the "Genius of the Emperor". The next champion of intrusive government
was the "Infallibility of the Pope". On the temporal side, there was the "Divine
right of kings", which was invented by scheming theologians. Today it is the
"Genius of the Fed", which enables the belief that a committee can "manage"
a national economy. This is an old tout. The most recent exercise in unlimited
ambition has been to "manage" the Earth's climate, which is the most preposterous
audacity in bureaucratic history.
Presentations of grand objectives have been supported by authoritative guidance
or approval.
Over the centuries, expedient citations have ranged from gods to priests as
well as from oracles that used bird entrails to computer models and Fourier
Transformations.
The interaction of policymakers and financial markets has and always will
be rich in irony. In the huge financial bubble that climaxed in 1873, the establishment
was convinced that nothing could go wrong. The US had the Treasury System,
which was celebrated as superior to a mere central bank. A Great Depression
followed.
The 1929 Bubble would continue because the old and bad system had been replaced
by the modern and "scientific" central bank. Similarly, nothing could go wrong
with the 2007 Bubble - the central bank had a "dream team" of macroeconomists.
Original backers of the Federal Reserve System boasted that it would prevent
the financial setbacks that typically preceded recessions. There have been
19 recessions since the Fed opened its doors in January 1914. Until the 1960s,
bankers dominated the Fed; since then it has been economists. The track record
of this form of interventionist central planning has remained the same. That
the Fed would not live up to expectations was known at the time, but its real
utility has been as a vehicle for control freaks.
More recently the Fed has been corrupted to provide unlimited funding for
the latest experiment in unlimited government. In so many words, it enhances
the power and wealth of the state. Keynesian theories were selected, not because
they were sound, but because they would serve the state.
Much the same holds for the theory that increasing concentrations of atmospheric
carbon dioxide would force "global warming". Millions of years of data do not
support that CO2 forces warming. Then the theory shifted to "climate change",
which covers any variable. Skepticism, normal to science is condemned as "denial",
a secular form of heresy.
The last time that always skeptical science was similarly condemned was in
the early 1600s. Backed with the supreme authority of scripture, the Vatican
insisted that the solar system revolved around the Earth. The clash with the
advance of science was fascinating. Astronomer Tycho Brahe plotted planetary
positions accurately, which provided the foundation for Kepler's theories of
planetary motion. Defying this breakthrough, the Vatican had many scribes calculating
motions accorded to the old theory. It got very complicated and the beauty
of science is less complication.
Elliptical orbits are elegant.
Of interest is that the state demanded that Brahe use the stars to advise
on government policy decisions. The royal astrologer.
Ironically, one of Kepler's teachers privately supported that the Earth rotated
around the sun, but had to teach the government theory. As with economic theories,
the reason why the state has pushed CAGW is solely because it enhances the
wealth and power of the bureaucracy.
There are other comparisons between economic and climate ambitions.
The Vatican theory was backed by the authority of scripture. CAGW is backed
by "97% of scientists", which number has been debunked.
Eventually, too much central bank credit increases the rate of CPI inflation.
According to theory, the Fed easing credit does not cause inflation. The public's
"expectations" about inflation "causes" inflation. Somehow, this is not called
tautology.
It gets worse. Many entitlements are tied to the rate of inflation. When these
costs impair budgets a state agency changes the CPI calculation. Higher increases
expenses, so the calculation lowers the actual number. The burden of entitlements
is reduced and the Fed can go back to inflating credit.
Richard Feynman is one of the great physicists and his "Lectures" are well-known.
Particularly, the one about no matter how beautiful the theory, if it is not
confirmed in the real world "It is wrong".
While Vatican ambition rested upon absurd orbital calculations, today's authoritarians
have been forced to alter climate history—big time. The theory is that modern
industrial life causes "global warming" and "climate change". Laws of physics
are immutable and prevail for all of time. AGW theories cannot explain the
Medieval Warm Period nor explain the Little Ice Age. Acting on behalf of the
politicization of science, Michael Mann changed the accepted temperature history.
Quite simply, his altered version, called the hockey stick, eliminated these
two actual climate extremes.
His deliberate "cooking" of the books is leading to his professional infamy.
That condemnation will also be earned by his disciples.
Which, sadly, continue to distort temperature data.
Climate "models" have been forecasting rising temperatures, but the satellite
measure has been flat-lining for almost 20 years. The political movement has
been pushing land and sea records that show a rising trend. Both are suspect
due to urban heating and inconsistent ocean temperature numbers. But this is
not enough distortion and in many cases, land temps from some 20 years ago
have been revised down. This enhances the uptrend in the surface record.
The El Nino highs of 1998 and 2015-2016 are weather events on the satellite
record. The latest El Nino is over.
The amazing thing is the ability of the movement to claim that normal temperature
ranges have been abnormal. Hyped concerns about increasingly violent storms
have not worked out. "The theory is wrong".
One of the links between policy blunders in economics and in climate promotions
is computer modelling.
Econometric modelling has been based upon Fourier Transforms. These allow
the mathematical treatment of different price series such that cause and effect
possibilities can be reviewed. Modelers hope to be able to vary something like
the amount of credit or interest rates and come up with GDP growth.
In the late 1970s, a big mining company in Vancouver made a serious attempt
to figure out the business cycle. The Wharton econometric model was hired,
the numbers for the 1920s entered, but it did not forecast the biggest financial
event of the first half of the Twentieth Century. Run by geophysicists, the
guys tried to improve the Wharton model, but could not make it work.
As noted above, a highly-regarded macroeconomist at Harvard predicted in 2007
that nothing could go wrong. Macroeconomic models did not work then, either.
The record of the Federal Reserve in forecasting its administered interest
rate has not been reliable. The following chart by Deutsche Bank Research was
published in October. It plots the time the Fed made the forecast as to where
the Fed Funds rate would soon go to. The Fed uses macroeconomics to determine
GDP growth. The "model" likely included the amount of Fed stimulation and projected
growth rates.
As the record shows, even the Fed employing Fourier has been unable to forecast
its own interest rates.
One detriment to economic forecasting has been the assumption of a national
economy that can be managed. There is no such thing as a national economy,
isolated from all others. Two thousand years ago, Cicero observed that when
the provinces in the Middle East suffered credit distress it would soon hit
Rome. The next problem is a primitive syllogism that confuses cause with correlation.
That Fed credit expansion forces business activity ranks with roosters causing
the sun to rise.
The issue with econometrics is that while the operators can put together a
model that gets the immediate past correct, in time one of the series will
change. That's on the ordinary business cycle. One of the features of highly
speculative financial markets is that growth curves become skewed. Skewed curves
are virtually impossible to solve. Thus, the failure of econometrics when applied
to 1929 and in real time in 2007.
Theories of economic intervention were favored because they transferred power
and wealth to the state.
The fall of the Berlin Wall in late 1989 marked a popular rejection of socialism
and communism. In the early 1990s, the Foundation for Economic Education documented
that many socialist control freaks moved over to environmental issues. Catastrophic
Anthropogenic Global Warming became compelling and fundable. Particularly,
as governments found researchers that would craft horror stories for grants.
In the 1920s, H.L. Mencken observed that the purpose of "practical politics
is to keep the populace alarmed". With a threat, there would be a public demand
to be "led to safety". He went on with the part about "hobgoblins, all of them
imaginary". This is one of the best descriptions of CAGW, and the ploy has
been remarkably successful.
While this was never announced as such and the promotion needed graphic presentations,
which meant computer modelling.
Who did earlier programmers turn to?
Jay Forrester and his System Dynamics, which was based upon Fourier. One of
the earliest uses backed the Club of Rome's "The Limits to Growth". In 1972,
this applied computer modelling to the old Malthusian superstition, which is
the concern of intellectuals that there are too many people on Earth. The Malthusian
catastrophe has yet to happen. Malthus fretted that population growth would
outpace the ability to expand food production. Today's version insists that
industrial exhalations of a trace gas will fry the Earth.
The following chart records success in the 1980s and 1990s with the "model"
agreeing with the ups and downs of the temperature plot. Quite likely this
was pushing the equations to fit the immediate past. Then based upon past
relations that appeared to work, modelers made forecasts. Based upon an assumed
causal connection to rising amounts of atmospheric CO2, the forecast (black
line) was projected up. The small squares plot temperature history from balloons
and satellite, which are the most reliable measures.
Two things are fascinating. The discrepancy between forecast and result continues,
which should prompt a Feynman "The theory is wrong!". Instead, the establishment
boasts an increasing degree of confidence in the model. That's from "Confident"
to "Extremely Likely". Ironically, in the real world the model has been an
unintended forecast of the ongoing trend in CO2, which no one disputes.
However, the influence of CO2 is refuted by just reviewing the Vostock Ice
Core. Over 450,000 years, a turn to warming occurred 19 times. Each has led
the increase in CO2 by some 800 years.
A very persuasive way of understanding climate change is to review Total Solar
Irradiance. This is the amount of energy from the sun received at the upper
atmosphere. It is worth noting that the peak was the highest in thousands of
years and that it is charting the most significant decline in 400 years. That
is since the Little Ice Age.
On the nearer term, the El Nino of 2015 to 2016 is over and the temperature
increase has been followed by the most rapid drop on the satellite record.
The sun's behavior is no longer on a warming trend; it is on a long-term decline
that is associated with cooling trends. The link is that the quiet sun allows
more cosmic rays through, which in turn forces more cloud cover. More energy
from the sun is reflected to outer space.
Proponents of CAGW should ask themselves a question. When did the natural
forces of climate change that have prevailed for billions of years become ineffective?
Delusion has eclipsed science in the compulsion to expand bureaucratic power,
and the following cartoon effectively sums it up.
Living in more tolerant times, Malthus proposed drastically reducing the numbers
of the lower classes. Mass murder is no longer state policy, so the remedy
is to control everyone. For a long time, control was asserted through the pitch
that the economy needed to be "managed". This would be accomplished through
increased regulations, taxation and currency depreciation. That free-market
economies have thrived without intrusion has not been widely discussed.
Believing that a national economy can be managed shows considerable arrogance.
Believing that the Earth's climate can be managed has run to unaffordable
excesses.
The last great experiment in authoritarian government ran to popular disapproval
in the early 1600s. A Great Reformation followed and it was more successfully
conducted in England than in Northern Europe.
A long and prosperous expansion climaxed in the early 1600s. Increasing unemployment
and hardship prompted a massive make-work program. Experienced merchants in
London likened the scheme to a sepulcher. "Attractive without, dead bones within".
In expecting it to fail, they described the intrusion into the markets as driven
by "Tyrannical Duncery".
In today's terms "Authoritarian Stupidity". Venezuela is the current example
of unlimited central planning.
Veteran traders have long known this about economic intervention. Earth scientists
who are outside of "His bread I eat: his song I sing" are driven up the wall
by the notion that a committee can "manage" the climate.
Fortunately, political history shows a long record of popular uprisings. These
have been against the governing classes that have become arrogant and privileged
as ordinary citizens live poorly. Then in what seems like an instant, authority
loses the drive to impose its will. At the same time the complacent public
loses the will to submit.
Historians have recorded such uprisings back to Egypt some 4000 years ago.
The last significant one took down communism and the Berlin Wall in November
1989. This one started with Brexit in June and accomplished a major step towards
an "American Spring" in November.
As with previous examples, a great experiment in authoritarian government
has run to unstable excess. The function of protection has been corrupted to
predation. Each previous example was followed by a Great Reformation.
Truly magnificent plans by grand bureaucracies are being increasingly seen
as futile, particularly in climate issues. Also, the public is discovering
that its prosperity is threatened by governments that recognizes no discipline
or accountability.
Considering the methods and "banners" used, it's about time.
NOAA Original and Adjusted Data
Heller headlines "100% of US Warming Is Due To NOAA Data Tampering"
- To emphasize, the plots are of old NOAA data and adjusted data.
- The manipulators assume that no one will review the old record.
CPI: Original and Adjusted
- A high rate of CPI inflation increases the state burden of entitlements.
- It was expedient to calculate it "down".
Arbitrary Economics
A form of madness seems to be going on.
This involves an academic personally deciding that the economy needs to be
stimulated. This is supported by the personal belief that arbitrary credit
expansion will boost business activity. Then a gullible central banker opens
the credit taps. The weakest business recovery since the 1930s suggests this
theory is not reliable. A series of financial bubbles have been recklessly
exaggerated by arbitrary central bank credit issuance.
Then there is another arbitrary problem. The expansion of the regulatory state
has been without precedent, which does two things. It inhibits business and
imposes a direct cost, which is estimated to be running at more than a $100
billion annually.
Then, an economist personally decides that the economy is weak and needs more
arbitrary..........
