Gold News Monitor
originally sent to subscribers on July 24, 2015, 7:10 AM.
We have already written that China
updated its official gold holdings. However, because there are still a
lot of misunderstandings about the impact of this event on the gold market
outlook, we will examine this issue in a more detailed way.
For years, many gold bugs have been speculating that China had probably tripled or quadrupled its gold reserves,
which was to boost gold prices when revealed. Unfortunately, the official
gold holdings rose only by 57.33 percent. Surprisingly, it did not upset some analysts, who reversed their argument and are saying
now that the fact that the Chinese have bought so little is great news,
because it means that they have a lot more gold to buy.
No, it is not. The muted demand in the past does not imply higher demand
in the future. It does not work like that. Moreover, the harsh reality is
that the market value of China’s official gold holdings as a percentage of
total holdings of reserves declined from 1.8 percent in April 2009 to 1.65
percent. Let’s emphasize this fact: China reduced the importance of gold
in its portfolio. The country favored the accumulation of fiat
currency-denominated assets (China increased its non-gold foreign exchange
reserves by almost 85 percent from April 2009). Well, that’s it for all this
speculations that China is going to back yuan by gold and dethrone the
collapsing U.S. dollar. No, it is not going to. The country increased its
gold reserves by 57 percent, while the money supply by 120 percent from April
2009, which means that yuan is far less backed by gold than six years ago.
Many gold perma-bulls simply claim that Chinese are lying and there were
also comments that China may have been “lowballing” the size of its holdings
to maintain confidence in the dollar. Of course, the governments are
generally awful liars, but why would China under-report its gold reserves?
The higher gold reserves, the more powerful country looks like. The same
analysts who now are denying the numbers, earlier were expecting huge
increase in gold reserves in order to impress IMF and get yean included into
SDR basket of global reserve currencies. And the same analysts claim that the
U.S. over-reports its gold reserves. The theory that China under-reported the size of gold
holdings to maintain confidence in the U.S. dollar is really funny given the
dominating narrative about the currency wars, yuan replacing the greenback
and China building a new global financial order.
The key takeaway is that China’s last update of its gold reserves is
definitely not bullish. It showed that the country was only interested in
roughly maintaining its percent share of gold reserves steady as a percent of
total reserves. Moreover, given the current developments it is questionable
that China will be able to continue its policy of reserve accumulation.
Therefore, investors should not base their investment decision on faith in
Chinese central bank’s demand. Gold can rally much higher in the coming
years, but it doesn’t have to do so shortly and definitely based on gold’s
reserves in China.
If you enjoyed the above analysis, we invite you to check out our other
services. We focus on the fundamental analysis in our monthly Market Overview
reports and we provide daily Gold &
Silver Trading Alerts with clear buy and sell signals.
Thank you.
Arkadiusz Sieron
Sunshine Profits‘ Gold News Monitor
and Market Overview Editor
Gold News Monitor
Gold Trading Alerts
Gold Market Overview
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