China Steel Production Hits Record Output: Minimum GDP Growth in Last 26 Years is 6.7%

IMG Auteur
Published : April 18th, 2017
494 words - Reading time : 1 - 1 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : Opinions and Analysis

If you believe in economic data from China (no knowledgeable person does) then you will likely accept as fact this Reuters headline: China first-quarter GDP grows faster than expected 6.9 percent.

China’s economy grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, slightly faster than expected, supported by a government infrastructure spending spree and a frenzied housing market that is showing signs of overheating.

Analysts polled by Reuters had expected the economy to expand 6.8 percent in the first quarter, the same pace as in the fourth quarter of 2016.

First-quarter growth was the fastest since the third quarter of 2015, with March data showing investment, retail sales, factory output and exports all grew faster than expected.

The strong reading should help underpin wobbly global financial markets but adds to worries that China’s government is still relying too heavily on stimulus and “old economy” growth drivers and is not doing enough to tackle risks from an explosive build-up in debt.

While China’s data has been largely upbeat so far this year, many analysts widely expect the world’s second-largest economy to lose steam later in the year as the impact of earlier stimulus measures starts to fade and as local authorities step up their battle to rein in hot housing prices.

Real estate investment growth accelerated to 9.1 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, as the pace of new construction starts quickened despite intensified government cooling measures.

Though policymakers have pledged repeatedly to push reforms to head off financial risks and asset bubbles, the government is seeking to keep the world’s second-largest economy on an even keel ahead of a major leadership transition later this year.

The government is aiming for growth of around 6.5 percent in 2017, slightly lower than last year’s target of 6.5-7 percent and the actual 6.7 percent, which was the weakest pace in 26 years.

Economic data was up across the board in March, with factory output increasing at the fastest pace since December 2014 and firms stepping up capital investments after a slowdown last year.

Industrial output rose 7.6 percent in March, with steel output the highest on record, according to Reuters data, adding to evidence of a global manufacturing revival that is buoying prices of industrial materials from iron ore to coking coal.

How Long Can This Go On?

Supposedly, the weakest growth in 26 years is 6.7%.

Bear in mind, I charted 6.7% when that was the weakest growth for 26 years.

Four Questions

  1. Assuming one accepts those numbers, “how long can this last?”
  2. What is the outlook for global GDP growth?
  3. What happens to the price of steel when construction tapers off?
  4. What the heck is China going to do with all that steel when the US and EU are already pissing and moaning over China dumping steel?

By the way, please note that pension plan assumptions are in the general range of 6.5% to 7.5% annual growth.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

Source : mishtalk.com
Data and Statistics for these countries : China | Georgia | All
Gold and Silver Prices for these countries : China | Georgia | All
<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
IMG Auteur
Mish 13 abonnés
Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Latest topics on forum :
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
State of Failure
11 AprThe Recusant1
My, my...James's article almost sounds as if Trump himself might have gassed the people as a deflection and not Syria at all! Why...why...that's co...
State of Failure
09 AprGypsy
The STOCK MARKET trend has been DOWN. In fact, the word after Friday's Crash was "Standby for Monday." In a Moment of Severe Stress, the so-calle...
Flat-Earther FINALLY Launches Himself Into The Air, Crashes, Goes T...
05 Aprsirqitous
Seen realistically, however, this was money well spent for TPTB, even if they never get that loan repaid! As free advertising for the MSM cover st...
Flat-Earther FINALLY Launches Himself Into The Air, Crashes, Goes T...
03 Aprprljr
The really really really really unfortunate thing is that there are people and i use that word "people" lightly, are for no other explanation that ...
Flat-Earther FINALLY Launches Himself Into The Air, Crashes, Goes T...
28 Marprblmsolved
The really unfortunate thing about this story; For that kind of money he probably could have hired someone with access to a modern performance ...
Drums Along the Potomac
23 MarGypsy2
I see there's a HUGE market for Conspiracy Theories and FAKE NEWS in the U.K. ~ from the Top down. Theresa May runs her Conspiracy Theory up her f...
Drums Along the Potomac
18 MarThemis-1
While I, too, don't give a hoot about the Skripals, the UK cannot tolerate foreign agents running amok and potentially endangering innocent British...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS