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Well,
it's that time again. Every two years our senses are assaulted as politicians
spew an endless stream of nonsense in the attempt to garner votes from a
mostly unsophisticated American population. This year the major topic, not
surprisingly, is jobs. Each and every politician would like you to believe
that he or she has the cure for the persistent unemployment problem.
Of
course it's all completely ridiculous. You would think these people could
read a history book. Never in history has government been able to legislate productivity. Governments just misallocate
capital. They tax one group of people and give the money to another group of
people to dig holes. Of course, once the hole is dug or the road built, that
job expires. It's not a sustainable productive use of capital.
Real
productivity is entrepreneurs creating sustainable companies that satisfy a
human need. AAPL is a sustainable business satisfying a human need. GOOG is a
sustainable productive business. XOM is a productive business. None of these
companies were legislated into being by government.
Almost
without exception, real progress involves industry destruction due to
mankind’s creativity. For example, when oil was discovered the whaling
industry collapsed. When the automobile was invented it destroyed equine
powered transportation, and so on. The emergence of each new major
technological advance, throughout the history of mankind, has caused
employment opportunities in some industries to utterly vanish. The industry
that once provided employment becomes obsolete.
This
is part of the normal and healthy sequence of human progress. Progress is a
result of replacing inefficient technologies with ones that are not only new,
but more efficient.
Likewise,
nations that refuse to allow this process of creatively inspired
‘destruction’ are found to have economies that stagnate and
ultimately fail.
There
is one way, and one way only, to cure our employment problem (and debt
problem). It is the same cure that ultimately ended the Great Depression and
serviced the gigantic debts that were incurred during World War II. That cure
was the advent of two brand-new industries: plastics and electronics. These
two industries created millions of jobs worldwide and spawned an economic
boom from 1945 until 1966.
Now
the world is back in the same position it was in 1930, and where Japan found
themselves in the early 1990s. The world has created another debt bubble and
we've chosen to kick the can down the road just like Roosevelt did in the
‘30s, and Japan has been doing for the last 20 years. And just like in
the ‘30s, we are going to get the same result which is persistently
high unemployment and generally declining global economic conditions.
What
we need to do is allow human ingenuity and creative destruction to actually
cure our problems. The biggest problem the US faces today is the triple
threat of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. These three entitlement
programs have bankrupted the country, and let's be honest, there is no way
any politician can possibly reform these programs, or even attempt to do so,
and have a prayer of getting elected.
The
cure to our problem is staring us right in the face. We don't need to reform
Social Security, or government health programs. We need to make them obsolete.
Rather
than plowing taxpayer dollars into an insolvent banking system (as the
Japanese have been doing for 20 years), we need to allow capitalism to work
and insolvent companies to go bankrupt. The taxpayer dollars that are now
flowing into an endless black hole which are the financial system and
government stimulus programs need to be funneled into the biotech industry.
Rather than fund expensive surgeries or endless treatments that only manage
symptoms, we need to discover real cures for disease, injuries and aging.
Imagine
if a person with an arthritic knee, instead of a $20,000 knee replacement
surgery, could simply walk into the doctor's office and receive a stem cell
shot that would repair and permanently cure the disease. Or, how about a
permanent cure for diabetes, heart disease, and obesity?
Yes,
what I'm talking about is a complete overhaul of the global healthcare
system. Yes, this is going to be creative destruction on a massive scale.
Many many doctors that studied for years and years
are going to be put out of business. Health insurance will become mostly a
thing of the past as the modern healthcare of the future will become easily
affordable by all. No different than buying an iPhone today.
Yes,
some industries are going to suffer and go bankrupt, like health insurance,
many doctors, and a big part of the pharmaceutical industry.
But
millions and millions of jobs will be created and when we reach the stage
when we actually cure diseases, especially as related to aging, we will
eliminate the gigantic burden the three big government entitlement programs.
If people can remain healthy and active for their entire life there will be
no need for Social Security benefits and Medicare and Medicaid. These
programs will become a thing of the past, as most diseases, and injuries will
be quickly and easily reversed or permanently repaired.
So
instead of the same old nonsense drivel we get during every election, it
would be refreshing if politicians understood the real problems, and the real
cures, and put in place policies that would actually have long-term benefits
and accelerate the transition through these dark times and into the next
Golden age.
Congress, are you listening?
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