Copper's Warning to Deflationists

‘Doc Copper’ is widely viewed as being able to predict upswings and slumps in the economy of manufacturing and real goods, so we should want to get this one in particular right. The post-election rally in Copper futures is on track for putting up one of the strongest months in the past decade. Buyers have retrenched somewhat in the last few days, but are they spent? This is unlikely in my estimation, since the rally has already generated a robust ‘impulse leg’ on the monthly chart, surpassing the two labeled peaks (see inset) we require. Under the rules of the Hidden Pivot Method, this specifically implies that any pullback short of the 2016 low, 1.9355, is merely corrective and should be viewed as a consolidation for a second, powerful leg up.

It would be more bullish still if, before November ends, the already impressive price bar for November extends above 2015’s high, 2.9610 (labeled #3 in the chart). It would require less than that, however, to trip a long-term buy signal. A print at the green line (2.7841) would do the trick, while also calling for a more bullish bias on trades in various time frames ranging from intraday to daily, weekly and monthly. A $5.33 target would be theoretically in play at that point, raising at least the possibility that the commodity sector as a whole is in for some very significant inflation.  This goes directly against forecasts that I’ve stood by for years, including a fall in long-term interest rates to under 1%. As such, I will continue to monitor copper’s charts very closely, since, at the end of the day, I will need to trust what they are saying more than I do my gut instincts. This doesn’t mean I’m about to recant my deflationist views any time soon, only that I am obliged by the technical evidence to keep an open mind. If you don’t subscribe, you can access the chat room and all of Rick's trading 'touts' instantly by clicking here for a no-risk, two-week trial subscription.