Crash Signatures

IMG Auteur
Published : March 04th, 2019
267 words - Reading time : 0 - 1 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
0
Send
0
comment
Our Newsletter...
Category : GoldWire

If you have been a long term reader here you know that I have something called a 'Crash Signature.'

One of the key components of this is a significant decline from a new all time high, that rallies substantially so that the fear subsides and most believe there is a return to 'normal' bubble conditions.

Unfortunately, IF this is a rally that fails, in that it fails to set a new high, but tops out and then falls sharply again, we have a higher potential of a crash in which confidence is shattered and a new lower low is set.

I have a correspondent in France who also does trend tracking such as this. While I have normally been using a composite model of several crashes from US market history (1929, 1974, 1987, 2001, 2008) he is concentrating lately on a comparison to the year of 1937.

It should be noted that the 'crash' of 1937 pales in comparison to the Crash of 1929. And it was largely caused by an egregious policy error by the Fed.

If you look at it carefully it does follow the 'crash signature.'

Here is the latest chart which he has sent to me. I think if we fail once again to take out 'The Wall' on my SP 500 chart, and drop to a lower low, there will be a higher than normal probability of a 'crash.'

Although I have to add that we are in the days of organized support, and mobilization of the entire country's money mechanisms, to support stock prices for the benefit of their primary constituents.



<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
Sometimes Things Turn
14 JunThemis
When humans try to do it all using their own strength and 'wisdom', we screw up royally. Let us remember that we have a powerful God and humbly tu...
The CFTC’s Summer Camp Letter
14 Junsonora691
I have followed the daily and intra-day prices of silver for most of the last 10 years. I am not a speculator, but a small investor interested in m...
Sometimes Things Turn
13 Junsonora693
I would like to thank you for turning a hundred years of American history into a succinct and subjective account of what has gone wrong in this co...
Sometimes Things Turn
11 JunS W.2
When a country like the USA does all the things that third world countries do, then by default it ends up in the third world.
Sometimes Things Turn
11 JunGypsy1
Being a "working stiff" I didn't start to notice The Turn until Foley and the Democrats would never stand up to Regan and Voodoo Economics. It was...
Going Where, Exactly?
10 JunJ.
I wonder where history will put the collapse. Like a recession, the collapse of a society is only apparent long after it is underway. Some, such ...
Trump’s Last Stand
08 JunS W.
I don't think China will be too worried about tariffs . They are getting on with business in the silk road with about 100 countries so they wi...
The CFTC’s Summer Camp Letter
02 JunS W.
I assume that Mr Butler has accumulated stacks of silver bars at artificially low prices and at some time in the future he will sell all his silver...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow
ALL
GOLD
SILVER
PGM & DIAMONDS
OIL & GAS
OTHER METALS