Crude Down Record 11th Day

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Published : November 13th, 2018
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FOLLOW : Crude Record
Category : Opinions and Analysis

Crude is down 22% since the early October high. Comments from Trump negated expectations that OPEC would cut production.

  • Oil prices notched their longest losing streak on record Monday, as comments from President Trump negated expectations that the global oil cartel and its allies will cut production.
  • Light, sweet crude for December delivery fell 0.4% to $59.93 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, marking the 11th consecutive session of losses, the longest in data going back to 1983.
  • Brent crude, the global benchmark, also closed lower, down 0.1% to $70.12 a barrel.
  • Saudi Arabia’s Mr. Falih on Sunday also said his country would unilaterally slash its exports next month by around 500,000 barrels a day, compared with November levels. However, Russia—currently the world’s largest oil producer—sent mixed messages on whether it would pull back on supply.

Trump Calls for Lower Oil Price

Sanctions Not Working Out as Expected

OPEC and allied oil-producing countries will likely need to cut crude supplies, perhaps by as much as 1 million barrels of oil a day, to rebalance the market after U.S. sanctions on Iran failed to cut Tehran's output, Saudi Arabia's energy minister said Monday.

The comments from the minister, Khalid al-Falih, show the balancing act the U.S. allies face in dealing with President Donald Trump's actions related to the oil industry.

Trump in recent weeks demanded the oil cartel increase production to drive down U.S. gasoline prices. "Hopefully, Saudi Arabia and OPEC will not be cutting oil production. Oil prices should be much lower based on supply!" he tweeted Monday.

The U.S. has meanwhile allowed some of its allies — Greece, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey — as well as rival China to continue to purchase Iranian oil despite re-imposed sanctions, as long as they work to reduce their imports to zero.

Al-Falih, who on Sunday said the kingdom would cut production by over 500,000 barrels per day in December, said Monday that Saudi Arabia had been giving customers "100 percent of what they asked for." That appeared to be a veiled reference to Trump.

A gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. on average now sells for $2.69, down from $2.90 a month ago, according to AAA. Those lower prices likely quieted Trump, but production cuts could again boost prices at the pump.

US Production Soars

Rising shale production is putting the United States on track to hit the 12 million bpd oil production mark sooner than previously forecast, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said in its November Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO).

Next year’s U.S. crude oil output is now expected to average 12.1 million bpd, up from a forecast of 11.8 million bpd just a month ago in the October STEO.

U.S. crude oil production reached a new monthly record of 11.3 million bpd in August 2018, exceeding 11 million bpd for the first time. Production in August was 290,000 bpd higher than expected in the October STEO, and it was this higher level that raised the baseline for the EIA’s forecast for production in 2019.

Comparing the forecasts in the latest STEO with the October estimates, the EIA now sees U.S. crude oil production hitting the 12-million-bpd mark in the second quarter of 2019 rather than the fourth quarter.

“The lower crude oil price forecasts are partly the result of higher expected crude oil production in the United States in the second half of 2018 and in 2019, which is expected to contribute to growth in global oil inventory and put downward pressure on crude oil prices,” the EIA said.

Cheaper Oil is Easy

Want cheaper oil? it's easy enough.

All Trump has to do is stop his foolish sanctions on Iran. They have had some impact, just not as much as Trump wants.

There's another way: Recession fueled by idiotic tariffs, rate hikes, and bubble-blowing policies by central banks.

 

Source : moneymaven.io
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Mish 13 abonnés
Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit http://www.sitkapacific.com
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