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Desperate Gold Bulls Cry Manipulation

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Published : May 07th, 2013
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( 6 votes, 1.7/5 ) , 3 commentaries
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The levels that markets are traded at are not open to interpretation; they are clearly defined. If one believed that the market were going to rise over a specific time period, and instead they fell, then one would be wrong. No matter what kind of reasoning you employ, the fact of the matter is that when the market says that you are wrong then you are wrong. If one finds themself in such a situation, the best thing to do is to admit that you have called the market wrong and re-evaluate your entire position in the market.

The past few weeks have shown the end of the bull market in its current cycle. Some of the bulls have been gracious in defeat, admitting that they were wrong in their predictions. Of these bulls some still hold their position on other rationale, such as a lack of faith in fiat currency, which we have no issue with, since their outlook and time horizon is different from ours.

However, there are those in the gold market that are refusing to acknowledge that they have made a mistake in calling the ongoing market direction. Rather than simply say “I was wrong”, which everyone is from time to time, this author included, they have resorted to blaming market manipulation and conspiracy theories for their losing positions. These frustrated cries stink of desperation from the permabulls who are unable to cope with an environment where gold prices are not constantly making all time highs, and are in fact falling.

We would like to clarify that firstly, we have not always been bearish on gold and have made significant returns on rallying gold prices in the past, and it is only in the past year that we have held the view that the bull market is over. We would also like to point out that we are open to manipulation theories; familiar readers will be aware of our investigation into the enormous profits that one could have made through holding an intraday short position on gold during London hours, and holding a long position overnight while London was shut. However, in the current market situation conspiracy and market manipulation theories do not apply, the bull market is simply over.

When market manipulation is considered, the math does not add up. It is possible that one could influence the price with large flows on an intraday basis, as may have been the case through most of the bull market, but to say that the fall from over $1900 to below $1400 is due to manipulation is ludicrous. A fall of nearly 30% in price is not called market manipulation, it’s called a fall in price, and if one believed that gold would rally instead of fall then they were wrong.

Claiming that central banks want gold prices lower, and that they are actively pursuing this by pushing and holding the price down is also ridiculous. The small relative size of the entire gold market means that if a central bank wanted gold lower, then they could push it far lower than it is currently.

One must also ask the question, where these manipulators were when gold was rallying from $250 to $1900? The answer is that they were exactly where they are now, in the imagination of those who had called the market wrong.

All ranting aside, the number of permabulls still crying manipulation or a rally to $10,000 an ounce is an important factor to take into account when one is considering how to trade gold in its current market. These claims mean that those permabulls are still holding long positions on the yellow metal. This in turn means that they are yet to stop out, which means that as gold falls lower more bulls will become trapped longs trying to exit the market. As the number of trapped longs grows, gold’s ability to mount a rally falls, as a rally will be subsequently stopped by those longs selling at the slightly more favourable exit levels. This will result in increasing downward pressure on gold prices as more and more bulls gradually through in the towel.

The most recent employment data from the US indicates that there will not be an additional quantitative easing from the Fed; therefore there is no reason for the US dollar to weaken and for gold to rise against it.

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I`m a miner not a trader, my view is that gold/silver are in fact manipulated, by the central bankers. de Rothschild of London and his many family connections from around the world, are doing their best to kill this high rise for the metal, because they want all this metal for themselves, these producers of FIAT WoRtHLEsS Paper, are all worried that in fact their schemes aren`t working out so good of fleecing people of their real wealth, and thats gold/silver. If those suckers in the west that trust in paper, & plastic ATM cards, plastic credit cards have value just think of a bond market crash in any one of the various other countries in Europe, these countries have for the most part have already been marked as losers by these same central bankers who are looking for Asia, namely China to go on reaping future whirlwinds of profit in their paper(BS) schemes, but I figure that the Chinese would pretty much go by traditional wisdom, keep your friends close, but have your enemies closer, to keep a watchfull eye on these bums. ---- When that perfect storm does finally come these bankers want as do I a way of escape & thats in having gold/silver coins, bars close in the physical form not in paper gold or paper silver thats only good would be in wiping ones butt, if out of tolet paper, in that future shit storm coming. Since talking again by this paper(ETF) gold, paper(ETF)silver interesting that these same central bankers came up with this scam too, holding ETF`s more paper, I guess wall paper for your out house would have a nice touch. You know that could be their real value in marketing tolet paper with their picture on the various rolls on it, could be a selling opportunity. To have a royal face on the paper that wipes ones butt, I love it. Lord Jacob Rothschild, his face with a price on it in US dollars, Canada dollars, OR in British pound sterling, I think the Queen would love to have a roll, just to wipe her royal ass on it too. She would be probably be a little laugh connected to its use seeing that these bums weren`t really Lords, just more fakers to the throne in their minds..........
Rate :   1  1Rating :   0
What is "ludicrous" (kirtley), is when an analyst shows a EOD chart showing a support break and then stating that the bull market is over.
Take a look at a monthly chart.
There was a reverse end of Sept 2011 and then a consolidation till last month with close at 1467..

So if you got out there and declared a $400% profit you are up for about 40% capital gains tax.
So you are left with a position at about $1100 gold but with cash sitting in the bank which could be confiscated haha.

Support long term is about $1033 and still in UPTREND. Granted it could go there but you will be no better off.

Manipulation or not, long term holders of gold can cover their positions in various ways.
I am in the manipulation camp but it makes no difference and so it should to everyone else.
Hold your gold and listen to nobody. There will come a day when gold is not for sale.
Rate :   4  0Rating :   4
Oh, such insightful analysis, please take my $799 and sign me up for a full year!
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Latest comment posted for this article
I`m a miner not a trader, my view is that gold/silver are in fact manipulated, by the central bankers. de Rothschild of London and his many family connections from around the world, are doing their best to kill this high rise for the metal, because they  Read more
Invention - 5/30/2013 at 12:27 PM GMT
Rating :  1  1
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