The march for fully autonomous driverless cars marches on. In May, Google
announced the Next Phase in Driverless Cars: No Steering Wheel or Brake
Pedals.
Google’s prototype for its new cars will limit them to a
top speed of 25 miles per hour. The cars are intended for driving in urban
and suburban settings, not on highways. The low speed will probably keep the
cars out of more restrictive regulatory categories for vehicles, giving them
more design flexibility.
Google is having 100 cars built by a manufacturer in the Detroit area, which
it declined to name. Nor would it say how much the prototype vehicles cost.
They will have a range of about 100 miles, powered by an electric motor that
is roughly equivalent to the one used by Fiat’s 500e, Dr. Urmson said. They
should be road-ready by early next year, Google said.
Google hopes to persuade regulators that the cars can operate safely without
driver, steering wheel, brake or accelerator pedal. Those cars would rely
entirely on Google sensors and software to control them.
Taxis Targeted
Google's cars come equipped with elaborate sensors that can see 600 feet in
every direction, are fully electric, and have a range of about 100 miles,
perfect for city use, especially driverless taxi cabs. Google plans for 2017
operation.
Last year, Lawrence D. Burns, former vice president for
research and development at General Motors and now a Google consultant, led a
study at the Earth Institute at Columbia University on transforming personal mobility.
The researchers found that Manhattan’s 13,000 taxis made 470,000 trips a day.
Their average speed was 10 to 11 m.p.h., carrying an average of 1.4
passengers per trip with an average wait time of five minutes.
In comparison, the report said, it is possible for a futuristic robot fleet
of 9,000 shared automated vehicles hailed by smartphone to match that
capacity with a wait time of less than one minute. Assuming a 15 percent
profit, the current cost of taxi service would be about $4 per trip mile,
while in contrast, it was estimated, a Manhattan-based driverless vehicle
fleet would cost about 50 cents per mile.
Driverless Cars on UK Public Streets Starting January
The BBC reports UK to Allow Driverless Cars on Public Roads in January.
The UK government has announced that driverless cars will
be allowed on public roads from January next year. It also invited cities to
compete to host one of three trials of the tech, which would start at the
same time.
Business Secretary Vince Cable revealed the details of the new plan at a
research facility belonging to Mira, an automotive engineering firm based in
the Midlands.
"Today's announcement will see driverless cars take to our streets in
less than six months, putting us at the forefront of this transformational
technology and opening up new opportunities for our economy and
society," he said.
The US States of California, Nevada and Florida have all approved tests of
the vehicles. In California alone, Google's driverless car has done more than
300,000 miles on the open road.
In 2013, Nissan carried out Japan's first public road test of an autonomous
vehicle on a highway.
And in Europe, the Swedish city of Gothenburg has given Volvo permission to
test 100 driverless cars - although that trial is not scheduled to occur
until 2017.
Competition cash
UK cities wanting to host one of the trials have until the start of October
to declare their interest. The tests are then intended to run for between 18
to 36 months. A £10m fund has been created to cover their costs, with the sum
to be divided between the three winners. Meanwhile, civil servants have been
given until the end of this year to publish a review of road regulations.
Taxi, Truck Drivers First
To Go
Taxi drivers, truck drivers, and mining operators will be the first to
go. I have written about this many times, and was largely dissed.
But the future advances relentlessly. My target of 2020 no longer looks
optimistic; it looks pessimistic.
Further Discussion
All of the above will be in widespread usage by 2020. Personal cars will
likely be the last affected. Taxis and commercial trucks will be first
because eliminating the driver eliminates a huge expense.
Millions of drivers will lose their jobs. Inflationary? Hardly.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
