In the same category

Duty to Leave: No "Meaningful" Brexit Vote Tuesday, Just a Political Circus

IMG Auteur
Published : January 15th, 2019
805 words - Reading time : 2 - 3 minutes
( 0 vote, 0/5 )
Print article
  Article Comments Comment this article Rating All Articles  
Our Newsletter...
Category : Crisis Watch

The UK Parliament votes tomorrow on Theresa's May's Brexit deal. Expect a circus, not a meaningful vote.

Temporary Happiness

Theresa May's deal will get overwhelmingly clobbered in UK tomorrow. The usual circus will then ensue. Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn will threaten a motion of no confidence.

The remainers will give passionate pleas. So will those who favor a hard Brexit as will those who want a super-Canada deal or a super-Norway deal.

Everyone, but those backing Theresa May will temporarily happy. But the temporary happiness will last for about 15 minutes.

Plan B

May will have 3 days to present Plan B.

She will do so but it will be the same as plan A. May will go to Jean-Claude Juncker who will be happy to write a set of non-binding lies on a napkin for May to present to parliament.

Will that be enough? Probably not. But it is unlikely to be meaningful then. If there is another rejection in Parliament, the EU might offer some equally meaningless non-binding gibberish about the backstop.

Nothing Has Changed

Eurointelligence has been amusing recently. Last week it thought a no-deal Brexit was the base scenario. Before that, for months it presented the case that May's deal would get approved at the last minute.

Today, Eurointelligence writes "We argue that the most likely option is agreement on a amended version - possibly Norway - either after tomorrow’s vote or after a new election".

For months, Eurointelligence stated "nothing has changed." It also presented the view that new elections were an extremely low probability. "

Given last week's opinion vs today's opinion, something had to change somewhere.


The problem with an EEA "Norway" option is that the UK would be stuck in a customs union, unable to negotiate its own trade deals.

A Norway deal would also hold the UK to Schengen Agreement and open travel, thus the term super-Norway to carve out exclusions.

The UK would be stuck with the asinine agricultural rules of the EU.

Note that he EU is not even in a position to offer EEA membership, as this would also require the explicit consent of the existing EEA members as well as all the nations in the EU.

And finally, the UK would have to contribute to the EU forever.

Public Vote

Another UK vote is highly unlikely. No one wants it. Nor does the public.

But that does not prevent May from threatening such a vote to get her way.

Base Scenario

The base scenario, remains what it has been all along: a no deal Brexit.

In the absence of a no agreement on anything else, a no-deal Brexit wins.

Only One Vote Matters

The other fact of the matter is only the last vote counts. May will keep returning with the same idiotic deal over and over again unless Parliament approves some other option.

Meanwhile, despite what the EU says, they will keep extending the clock until they get a deal they like or a request from the UK for a Norway deal.

Stupidity May Rule

Despite the asininity of a Norway option, it is possible enough remainers, Labour and DUP MPs get together to request that option.

Should the UK opt for a Norway deal, they would have been better off not leaving.

Nonsense From Eurointelligence

Today Eurointelligence commented "We don’t think that this would be superior to the deal May negotiated, but it is surely superior to extreme options of a no-deal Brexit or a second referendum."

Fearmongering is widespread. Planes wont fly, pets will be stuck in Europe, etc.

It is all complete nonsense. The way to get a good deal quickly is to leave cold turkey.

Super-Fast Deal

The EU is headed. German, French and Italian Industrial Production Crashed.

German exports to the the UK will plunge. The UK can stop the EU from fishing in its waters. The UK will stop paying into EU coffers.

Via Eurointelligence, "The best way forward, FAZ writes, would be for the UK to join the EU’s Common Transit Procedure as a third country. This treaty is used to facilitate trade with Norway and Switzerland, which are also not in the EU’s customs union. This would allow customs procedures to be shifted away from the physical border. There is, in other words, a notion of a managed no-deal."


Stupidity vs Super-Stupidity

It is only if and when Theresa May gets a backbone, that the EU will listen.

And it would be super-fast, in EU terms, say within a year.

Unfortunately, it appears the primary options are stupidity vs super-stupidity.

Duty to Leave

Theresa May wasted two full years negotiating the worst trade deal in history.

All the while she lied "No deal is better than a bad deal." Today she talks of a duty to leave. What a sorry joke.

Source :
<< Previous article
Rate : Average note :0 (0 vote)
>> Next article
IMG Auteur
Mish 13 abonnés
Mike Shedlock / Mish is a registered investment advisor representative for SitkaPacific Capital Management. He writes a global economics blog which has commentary 5-7 times a week. He also writes for the Daily Reckoning, Whiskey & Gunpowder, and has over 80 magazine and book cover credits. Visit
WebsiteSubscribe to his services
Comments closed
Latest comment posted for this article
Be the first to comment
Add your comment
Top articles
Latest Comments
“Mass Shootings”
Bingo! These are the pesky facts that politicians and their lapdog media do not want you to think about. As L. Neil Smith once said, I pa...
There Is No Normal
20 AugJ.
The World Made by Hand is not coming, if it does, the first thing made by hand will be graves. Billions of graves, dug by hand. All the great ...
USFed: Infinite QE Forever at Zero Bound
18 Augandreachase01
It was easy to apply for a personal loan with WESTERN LOAN FINANCE and they were quick to respond. They made the process seamless and were very hel...
There Is No Normal
19 AugS W.1
My advice for what it is worth is to be like water. That is, take the path of least resistance, go with the flow. Furthermore look after yo...
August 19 Turn Date is Tomorrow – Are You Ready?
19 AugS W.
Well I guess that 19th August breakdown call is not working out at all, at this stage at least, S&P 500 up about 38 pts. Aside from that,...
There Is No Normal
19 AugGypsy1
It's been over ten years since I began taking the advice of you, James, along with the advice of George Ure, Gregory Mannarino, Gerald Celente, The...
USFed: Infinite QE Forever at Zero Bound
08 AugS W.1
Why would anyone donate to Willie? He gets dudded by not doing due diligence and asks for people to help him out...really? The guy is alway...
A Purview of Dust
29 JulGypsy
You've gone and mentioned "the collapse" of Human Progress, James. I've often observed several throw-backs to Medieval (even Barbaric) Times ~ suc...
Most commented articlesFavoritesMore...
World PM Newsflow